Who are the winners and losers in this so-called green energy transition?.The answer is straight forward when we consider wealth of the top leaders within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is estimated at $538 billion and this grew by 75 % in 2020 alone..China has limited domestic hydrocarbon reserves, and its manufacturing and export based economy is dependent upon international oil markets that trade predominately in US dollars..The CCP benefits immensely by the West’s embrace of its so-called green energy products as a perceived replacement of its plentiful hydrocarbon reserves, in two main ways..First, the flow of capital from the West to China is assured given its near monopoly on the green energy industry. Second, stagnating the economic activity of the West reduces demand and price for hydrocarbons..Collectively, these two factors work in China’s favour and frees up its capital for investments in technology and its military..For the record, I find it deplorable referring to solar photovoltaic, wind and electric vehicle lithium ion battery technologies as green. Referring to these technologies as green simply because in theory they can eliminate the use of hydrocarbons, completely ignores reality..Reality is these technologies have a massive ecological footprint. Coal represents 56% of China’s primary energy consumption versus 3.5% in Canada. China has an atrocious record on mitigating mercury, arsenic and other poisonous particulate matter pollutants from its rapidly expanding coal power fleet..Since 2020, China built more new coal power plants than has the rest of the world combined. In 2021 alone, Chinese coal power CO2 emissions grew by 400 million tonnes..Meanwhile, Albertan communities, that have for decades provided the province with affordable electricity from their coal power plants and coal mines, are now facing economic extinction as they are told to stand down in favour of Chinese dominated energy conversion technologies..The 2022 market share of CCP controlled Chinese mining, metals refining, manufacturing and distribution companies in the lithium ion battery, solar PV and rare earth permanent magnets industries varies between 50 to 95 %. Total annual revenues for Chinese companies in this space are in the range of $50 to $80 billion USD in 2021 and the compound average growth rate of this sector is estimated to be between 8 to 18% from 2022 to 2030.. Graph 1 Fournier .Time will tell how Chinese market share will hold up to the efforts by the West to regain strategic control of and access to these critical materials. Given it takes upwards of a decade to obtain regulatory approval for the construction of new large mines in North America, I'm not going to hold my breath..Meanwhile, according to the Federal Canadian Energy Regulator (CER), our provincial regulatory agencies are approving Chinese green energy cartel benefiting capacity in our electric energy sector with extreme bias. CER data shows between 2010 and 2020, wind and solar PV capacity grew by 12,265 MW across Canada.. Fournier Capacity graph .On the other hand, the build-out of natural gas-fuelled electric power generation was added at a pace that only matched the rate of coal power plant decommissioning. According to the CER, not even Canadian nuclear power capacity is allowed to grow into the future, and projections show our nuclear capacity decreases from 13,000 to 11,000 MW from 2010 to 2050..Not sure about you, but it seems that this whole energy transition phenomenon in Canada is geared to largely benefit the CCP and that any home grown solution is being factored out of the equation completely.
Who are the winners and losers in this so-called green energy transition?.The answer is straight forward when we consider wealth of the top leaders within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is estimated at $538 billion and this grew by 75 % in 2020 alone..China has limited domestic hydrocarbon reserves, and its manufacturing and export based economy is dependent upon international oil markets that trade predominately in US dollars..The CCP benefits immensely by the West’s embrace of its so-called green energy products as a perceived replacement of its plentiful hydrocarbon reserves, in two main ways..First, the flow of capital from the West to China is assured given its near monopoly on the green energy industry. Second, stagnating the economic activity of the West reduces demand and price for hydrocarbons..Collectively, these two factors work in China’s favour and frees up its capital for investments in technology and its military..For the record, I find it deplorable referring to solar photovoltaic, wind and electric vehicle lithium ion battery technologies as green. Referring to these technologies as green simply because in theory they can eliminate the use of hydrocarbons, completely ignores reality..Reality is these technologies have a massive ecological footprint. Coal represents 56% of China’s primary energy consumption versus 3.5% in Canada. China has an atrocious record on mitigating mercury, arsenic and other poisonous particulate matter pollutants from its rapidly expanding coal power fleet..Since 2020, China built more new coal power plants than has the rest of the world combined. In 2021 alone, Chinese coal power CO2 emissions grew by 400 million tonnes..Meanwhile, Albertan communities, that have for decades provided the province with affordable electricity from their coal power plants and coal mines, are now facing economic extinction as they are told to stand down in favour of Chinese dominated energy conversion technologies..The 2022 market share of CCP controlled Chinese mining, metals refining, manufacturing and distribution companies in the lithium ion battery, solar PV and rare earth permanent magnets industries varies between 50 to 95 %. Total annual revenues for Chinese companies in this space are in the range of $50 to $80 billion USD in 2021 and the compound average growth rate of this sector is estimated to be between 8 to 18% from 2022 to 2030.. Graph 1 Fournier .Time will tell how Chinese market share will hold up to the efforts by the West to regain strategic control of and access to these critical materials. Given it takes upwards of a decade to obtain regulatory approval for the construction of new large mines in North America, I'm not going to hold my breath..Meanwhile, according to the Federal Canadian Energy Regulator (CER), our provincial regulatory agencies are approving Chinese green energy cartel benefiting capacity in our electric energy sector with extreme bias. CER data shows between 2010 and 2020, wind and solar PV capacity grew by 12,265 MW across Canada.. Fournier Capacity graph .On the other hand, the build-out of natural gas-fuelled electric power generation was added at a pace that only matched the rate of coal power plant decommissioning. According to the CER, not even Canadian nuclear power capacity is allowed to grow into the future, and projections show our nuclear capacity decreases from 13,000 to 11,000 MW from 2010 to 2050..Not sure about you, but it seems that this whole energy transition phenomenon in Canada is geared to largely benefit the CCP and that any home grown solution is being factored out of the equation completely.
