Morrigan Johnson is an independent journalist in Calgary.A ceasefire has been announced between the United States (US) and Iran on the evening of April 7 amid international pressure to stop the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the international economy suffers cascading price shocks from the blockade. The agreement, brokered through Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir, US Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, consists of a two-week temporary pause in hostilities, which is intended to act as a window to facilitate formal negotiations scheduled to begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan. Early indications reveal that the ceasefire is already being violated, the durability of the talks being nonexistent, but the attempt deserves merit. Iran agreed to immediately pause its blockade and allow the safe passage of global oil and gas shipments. The US claims Iran agreed to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and allow the US to help "dig up and remove" enriched uranium. Araghchi posted a pointed warning that the US cannot separate the war in Iran from Israel’s actions in Lebanon..Protests have kicked off in Europe due to the price shocks as a consequence of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Some countries can expect fuel shortages and price shocks very soon unless a change in the situation can be achieved. A weak point in the accord rests with Lebanon. President Donald Trump dismissed a recent surge of attacks in Lebanon as a skirmish on Wednesday, even as Israel intensified its military campaign in the hours following the announcement of the ceasefire. While the Iranian proxy Hezbollah and the non-NATO major ally of the US are not a party to the talks with Iran, continued attacks both ways make a cessation of violence difficult to secure in the region. There is a massive reality gap between the 15-point US plan, the 10-point Iranian plan, and President Trump’s insistence that the true workable agreement is confidential. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Iran initially sent a proposal that was fundamentally unserious and was "literally thrown in the garbage" by Trump. A subsequent, secret offer from Tehran is the one Trump publicly called a workable basis on which to negotiate..Pakistan was actively pushed by the White House to act as the intermediary. The Trump administration viewed a neutral, Muslim-majority neighbour as the most effective wrapper for a US-backed proposal that Iran might otherwise reject out of hand. Previous rejections of failed talks dubbed the “Islamabad Accord” with the US had been called unrealistic. .Unlike the failed talks last week, Iran entered this pause after suffering the destruction of 85% of its defence industrial base. They are negotiating from a much more desperate position than they were during the late-March failure. International pressure is massive to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to prevent global price shocks and soften the energy crisis. .The failure of the first Islamabad attempt effectively burned the trust of the mediators. If the Friday talks in Islamabad don't show immediate progress on the Strait of Hormuz, the US has indicated it won't wait for another week of "failed accords" before resuming strikes.Last week’s failure happened partly because the US refused to stop Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon. Since that hasn't changed (Israel is still striking Beirut today), the same duplicity that killed the talks a week ago is still present in the room for the Friday summit. A cessation of violence is unlikely because the regional belligerents to the conflict extend far beyond the US and Iran. While Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the ceasefire covers all fronts, including Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly stated that this is the first time talks were being arranged, stating the truce does not apply to Israel's operations against Hezbollah. As of April 8, Israel is backtracking, showing some rhetorical support for the ceasefire idea with convoluted rhetoric towards Hezbollah in Lebanon indicating that the ceasefire has nothing to do with their incursion into Lebanon. Their attacks on Lebanon show no indication of stopping. .How this plays out beyond rhetoric remains to be seen. Iran has stated that the ceasefire conditions with America must include Israel standing down in Lebanon, though it seems explicitly unlikely and beyond the USA and Iran’s control.Pressure to end the war has increased because a severe energy crisis in Europe is likely if the Strait remains blockaded. This has led to a deepening fissure between NATO countries and the USA. Italy and France have accused Israel of war crimes while denying America military access. The UK and Australia are deeply concerned about the energy crisis. Germany has a rising nationalist movement, AfD, which is starkly against the EU, and attacks on energy infrastructure are now distancing themselves from Trump and the war. The UK, EU, and Canada have issued a joint demand that the ceasefire must include Lebanon, or it will inevitably collapse.A piece from The American Conservative argues that Congress holds the definitive constitutional power to stop the war with Iran by ceasing to fund the war. The president is powerless to veto congressional obstruction if Congress refuses to appropriate the money. The war must effectively end because the executive cannot fund it despite what the executive branch wishes. The war has been criticized as having executive power free rein. The Democrats were voted down the first time they tried to rein in the executive with a war powers resolution, and an upcoming Senate vote will be held next week.Considering the illegal nature of the dirty war, lack of evidence for any nuclear weapons, and the potential to create millions of new mass migrants fleeing the region, support for the war is very low, especially outside of America.Congress passed a resolution in 1973 that prohibited any expenditures for combat operations in or off the shores of Vietnam, which put the nail in the coffin of executive overreach. At this time, there’s bipartisan potential, even from the conservative base, to immediately reel in the world strategic situation.Morrigan Johnson is an independent journalist in Calgary.
