Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance. During his tenure, he focused, among his other duties, on assisting in the development of meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements.Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP government continue to coddle the Alberta independence movement, including those associated with the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) and the Free Alberta Strategy, but fail to deliver the goods for Albertans by providing a full economic and fiscal analysis of the costs of independence. For example, the APP has released what it considers to be a fully costed plan for an independent Alberta, but the plan appears to contain a number of flaws and unsupported assumptions. A comprehensive analysis by the Alberta government on the impacts of independence would help clear up these misconceptions and hopefully give Albertans the ‘straight goods,’ once and for all.In an earlier commentary, I estimated that Alberta independence could cost the province’s economy $130.2 billion, adjusted for inflation, over the next ten years. This is the conclusion I reached by extrapolating a 10-year estimate from excellent analyses (here and now here) conducted by Dr. Trevor Tombe, Director of Fiscal and Economic Policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy. This $130 billion hit to the Alberta economy would put further strain on the province’s precarious finances, with the Smith government already facing the prospects of an extended low oil price environment, large structural budget deficits, and a rising debt load.Yet, despite the fact that Alberta independence has become a significant public policy issue, and with the rising prospects that a referendum may be held on the issue this fall, neither Alberta Treasury Board and Finance nor Executive Council, Intergovernmental and International Relations have done any analysis of what independence would cost, even as a risk-planning exercise, despite numerous Access to Information (ATI) requests I have filed over the past year. The Smith government’s explanation of forecasts remains puzzling. Alberta has regularly forecast the potential impacts of such federal proposals as the oil and gas emissions cap and the Clean Electricity Regulation. The Alberta government also prepared analysis in Budget 2025 of the negative impact of the Trump tariffs, presumably now being updated for Budget 2026. If Alberta independence is being put on the table by the APP, Free Alberta, and others, doesn’t it deserve the same level of scrutiny from the Alberta government?.When the United Kingdom (UK) announced the Brexit referendum campaign to leave the European Union (EU) in early 2016, UK HM Treasury prepared a detailed April 2016 analysis which estimated that Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman, and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. The Scottish government recently released publicly its own study evaluating the prospects for Scottish independence and economic performance matched with comparable countries; households could be over £10,000 better off each year. If the UK and Scotland can do this type of analysis, why can’t Alberta? If the necessary capacity is not available in-house within Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, the Alberta government should hire a highly respected independent forecasting firm, such as the Conference Board of Canada (now Signal 49 Research) or Stokes Economics, to perform the necessary analysis.I am calling on the Alberta government to provide an initial analysis, within Budget 2026, of the cost of Alberta independence as part of its annual fiscal and economic and risk scenario planning, and then make a more fulsome in-house analysis (similar to what the UK HM Treasury prepared and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility now prepares) or have it done by an independent forecasting firm. The full report should be released to Albertans by August 1, prior to the fall referendum.Government’s role is to inform its citizens about the likely costs and consequences of serious policy choices. Shouldn’t the provincial government help Albertans by testing the APP and Free Alberta plans and show whether they even add up? Don’t Albertans — whether they support or oppose independence — deserve clear, objective information about the economic and financial consequences before they’re asked to vote?Even if some continue to debate the merits of independence, one thing shouldn’t be up for debate: the Alberta government has a duty to provide accurate, transparent analysis of the impacts. At the very least, Albertans deserve honest numbers before being asked to vote on their future. Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance. During his tenure, he focused, among his other duties, on assisting in the development of meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements.
