Lennie Kaplan was a senior manager in the fiscal and economic policy division of the Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance, where he worked on the development of energy and environment policy.There are news reports that Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will soon sign an agreement on a long-term path for the Alberta industrial carbon tax, presumably as a means of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 (Alberta NZE 2050), a goal being championed by the Alberta government.But will this agreement provide any clarity from the Alberta government on how high its “made-in-Alberta” carbon tax will go by 2050 to reach the Smith government’s zealous commitment to net zero emissions?Premier Smith has been pitching Alberta NZE 2050 since July 2022, reaffirmed it in Alberta’s 2023 climate change plan, and officially signed on to it, along with the federal Carney Liberals, as one of the headline items of the Canada-Alberta MOU. In the MOU, the Smith government agreed to work with the Liberal government towards long-term effective carbon prices in Alberta.Now, based on some new net zero modelling from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), as contained in the 2026 Canada’s Energy Future (CEF) report, I estimate that Alberta’s carbon tax could reach $550 (2025 dollars) per tonne by 2050 to achieve net zero emissions in the province. .This $550 Alberta carbon tax could create uncertainty for nearly $200 billion in private sector investment in carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), oil sands expansion and optimization projects, and pipeline development in the province.Obviously, there needs to be far greater scrutiny of the economic and fiscal consequences of Premier Smith’s commitment to reach Alberta NZE 2050. Yet, the Alberta government still has not publicly shared any detailed economic and fiscal impact analyses of the costs of pursuing Alberta NZE 2050, even after the numerous requests I have filed over the past two years, through the Access to Information Act. Just what are they hiding from Albertans?The Smith government should immediately release the results of all its carbon policy modelling, including the Alberta carbon tax price path to reach Alberta NZE 2050, and the implications of a rising Alberta carbon tax price on the competitiveness of large emitter sectors, such as Alberta’s oil sands sector.So, when the agreement on the “made-in-Alberta” carbon tax is signed, don’t just focus on the carbon tax sticker price in 2030, but also focus on the long-term Alberta carbon tax sticker price path towards the Smith government’s ultimate goal of a net-zero Alberta by 2050.Lennie Kaplan was a senior manager in the fiscal and economic policy division of the Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance, where he worked on the development of energy and environment policy. He also served as a consultant to the Office of the Auditor General during its 2018 audit, “Design of Systems to Manage the Climate Leadership Plan and Adaptation.” In 2019, he provided initial policy advice to the Alberta government leading to the development of the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reductions (TIER) regime.
