Lennie Kaplan spent over two decades in the public service of Alberta, including as a senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of the Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance, where he worked on cross-ministry initiatives evaluating the fiscal and economic impacts of federal and provincial energy and climate change policies.The $559 billion estimated negative fallout from the Alberta government’s acquiescence to the federal Liberal government’s net zero agenda, as headlined in the Canada-Alberta MOU, is over 30% higher than the $428 billion in projected Alberta financial wealth being sent to Ottawa. The Carney-Smith commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050 is estimated to have a $559 billion cumulative negative economic impact on Alberta’s gross domestic product (GDP), between 2025 and 2050, a period of 26 years. This estimate is based on data drawn from a 2024 custom research project I commissioned through Navius Research.And the Alberta carbon price, indicating the policy stringency required to achieve net zero emissions in Alberta, is estimated at $550 per tonne (in 2025 dollars) by 2050, well above the effective carbon price of $130 per tonne agreed to by the Alberta government in the Canada-Alberta MOU..Meanwhile, Albertans, that is, the difference between what Albertans send to Ottawa, mostly in taxes, and what they get back in return, such as federal transfers, is estimated at $428 billion between 2007 and 2032. From 2007 to 2024 (a period of 18 years), Albertans paid $293.5 billion more to Ottawa than they received in return. And I estimate that Albertans will send $134.6 billion more to Ottawa than they get back over the next 8 years (2025-2032). This leads to a total of $428 billion estimated transfer of wealth from Albertans to Ottawa between 2007 and 2032, a period of 26 years. Faced with these numbers, why did Premier Danielle Smith enthusiastically sign on to Prime Minister Mark Carney and the federal Liberal government’s net zero agenda in the Canada-Alberta MOU? The Alberta net zero tab of $559 billion is an astounding $131 billion, or 30%, higher than the $428 billion in fiscal wealth being sent from Alberta to Ottawa. It makes no economic or political sense. Is the Smith government being directed by the federal Liberals in Ottawa?The Alberta government’s net zero surrender has the potential to be far more devastating to the province than Pierre Trudeau’s Liberal government’s 1980s National Energy Program (NEP). Why would the Smith government willingly sign on to a NEP 2? This is unacceptable..The Alberta government has been examining the economic and fiscal impacts of Alberta net zero emissions 2050 (NZE 2050) for quite some time. In fact, a recent request for information revealed nearly 30,000 pages in responsive records. So, the Alberta government must know its negative consequences. But the Alberta government seems determined not to share this information with Albertans. What bad news is the Alberta government hiding from Albertans? Openness and transparency require the Smith government to immediately release all the records detailing the economic and fiscal impacts of pursuing its Alberta NZE 2050. Based on what I have seen to date, I believe that the Alberta government should immediately scrap its MOU commitment to net zero emissions and establish realistic, achievable emission-reduction targets for the province.Lennie Kaplan spent over two decades in the public service of Alberta, including as a senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of the Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance, where he worked on cross-ministry initiatives evaluating the fiscal and economic impacts of federal and provincial energy and climate change policies.
