Lennie Kaplan spent more than two decades in the public service of Alberta, focusing on government fiscal, economic, energy, and environmental policy.In the very near future, the Alberta government is expected to release the final reports of the University of Calgary School of Public Policy (SPP) and the Advisory Panel (AP) on the fiscal costs, economic impacts, potential savings, and risks associated with an independent Alberta. The release of the SPP and AP reports will be a pivotal moment in the run-up to the October 19 referendum. Albertans are looking for detailed information regarding the fiscal and economic costs and benefits of Alberta independence. Hopefully, the SPP and AP reports will provide the structured, data-driven process and methodology that Albertans need to separate the long-term macroeconomic and fiscal shifts of independence from the immediate, one-time transition costs. The SPP and AP reports should base their methodology on the variety of in-depth studies undertaken in Quebec, over nearly five decades, regarding the impact of potential independence, while factoring in Alberta's unique position as it relates to resource revenues, interprovincial trade, and federal-provincial fiscal flows.Here is what I see as a checklist of the major elements to look for in the SPP and AP reports. I referred to the terms of reference set out in Alberta Treasury Board of Finance Ministerial Order (MO) #20/2026, dated June 10, 2026, when preparing this list.To analyze the economic and policy risks associated with Alberta’s independence, it is essential to identify and evaluate the transitional setup, ongoing costs, and the division of assets and debts. This analysis should include an examination of the potential impact on Alberta’s debt and its servicing costs, as well as a detailed accounting of possible start-up and transition expenses. Additionally, the impact of maintaining the current status quo versus pursuing independence on Alberta’s net fiscal contribution (NFC) should be assessed. The net impact of independence must be thoroughly evaluated, and the net fiscal benefits of such a move should be estimated to provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential economic consequences.To address the division of federal debt and assets, it is necessary to calculate Alberta’s portion of the existing federal debt. This involves assessing various methods for dividing these resources, which include Crown corporations, military equipment, national parks, and other capital assets. Potential approaches for determining Alberta’s share could be based on its proportion of Canada’s population, its contribution to nominal GDP, and its historical and projected future net fiscal contribution (NFC), both on a full and modified basis. It should simulate potential increases in debt servicing costs for the Alberta government due to the application of interest risk premiums and potential credit rating downgrades arising from the assumption of legacy federal debt..To estimate the costs associated with building or duplicating federal administrative infrastructure, one must consider both the one-time and ongoing expenses. This encompasses the establishment of a tax collection agency, border control and customs posts, a post office, passport services, foreign embassies, a central bank, and a currency regulator. Startup costs involve estimating the immediate financial outlays necessary to establish administrative, regulatory, and legal institutions.Evaluate the currency and monetary friction by modelling the financial consequences of Alberta adopting a new sovereign currency or continuing to use the Canadian dollar, potentially without having a representative at the Bank of Canada.To assess fiscal capacity, revenue, and expenditure retention, it is necessary to compile a list of revenues such as taxes, fees, and other sources collected by the federal government from Albertans and Alberta businesses. Concurrently, develop a list of federal programs, services, and expenditures provided in Alberta that benefit its residents. Additionally, estimate the potential fiscal and economic advantages of Alberta leaving Canada, considering factors like taxation and other revenue-generating impacts. Finally, evaluate the potential costs involved in implementing national-level functions and services independently.To assess the feasibility of retaining federal tax revenue sources originating in Alberta, such as the GST, federal corporate taxes, and federal personal income taxes, one must consider the costs associated with replicating or replacing these programs. These include Old Age Security (OAS), Employment Insurance (EI), the Canada Child Benefit (CCB), international relations, border services and customs, Alberta’s share of Canada Pension Plan (CPP) payments, federal direct support for indigenous peoples, RCMP policing services, Canada Post operations, federal revenue collection services, court services and administration of justice, immigration services, NAV Canada services, military veteran benefit payments, telecommunications, various federal healthcare programs, new drug approval services, food inspection services, federal environmental monitoring services, security and intelligence services, central banking and currency services, and federal regulatory services.Assess the financial viability, asset valuation, setup costs, and the ongoing benefits and costs linked to an Alberta version of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).Analyze the potential fiscal and economic consequences of independence, including the risks to Albertans and their businesses.Analyze the impact of potential tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) on Alberta’s interprovincial and international trade. Specifically, consider how these barriers affect key macroeconomic and fiscal variables, including GDP, investment, revenues, and expenses..Evaluate the impact on international and interprovincial trade behaviour when an internal border transforms into an international one. This involves examining the expenses associated with negotiating new agreements with the Rest of Canada (RoC), the US, and other entities for foreign transit corridors, such as those used by the Trans Mountain and Enbridge pipeline networks. These corridors are crucial for accessing tidal water and international markets for Alberta’s energy and agricultural exports, among other goods. Analyze the economic risks associated with uncertainty, such as potential business relocations, and the impact of independence on Alberta’s business landscape and foreign direct investment levels. Estimate the fiscal and economic costs associated with delivering programs, services, and other expenditures at an Alberta-only level, as well as national-level functions and services such as military, central banking, immigration, and border security, within Alberta. Outline the costs associated with establishing independent regulatory bodies for railways, telecommunications, aviation, and financial institutions that are currently overseen by federal agencies. Model the cost of establishing an independent defence force and an expanded provincial police force in relation to the NATO objective of 2% GDP. To conduct a comprehensive economic and fiscal cost/benefit analysis of Alberta, it is essential to utilize historical precedents. These include examining the economic impacts of a potential Quebec separation or independence, as well as the secession of other regions with comparable population sizes and GDP. Such examples provide valuable context for understanding the possible consequences of Alberta’s economic trajectory. .Conduct a comprehensive economic impact analysis of Alberta’s potential independence, focusing on its effects on key macroeconomic variables over the short- to medium-term. This analysis should include an examination of nominal and real GDP, employment and unemployment rates in Alberta, nominal consumer expenditures, personal income, personal income per person, personal disposable income, and personal disposable income per person. Additionally, it should cover retail sales, housing starts, nominal GDP per person, nominal residential and business investments, net corporate operating surplus (NCOS), annual labour income per employee, household disposable income per household, and overall, primary household income, average weekly earnings, the consumer price index, population, net migration, and both short-term and long-term interest rates, along with any other relevant macroeconomic variables.Conduct a comprehensive fiscal impact analysis of Alberta independence on the provincial government’s financial statement of operations, focusing on revenues and expenses, as well as the assets and liabilities balance sheet over the short- to medium-term. This analysis should include the effects on the annual surplus or deficit, assets and liabilities, net financial debt, net financial liabilities, taxpayer-supported and self-supported debt, annual debt servicing costs, the balance of the Heritage Savings Trust Fund, cash adjustments, operating expenses, program expenses, healthcare expenses, capital spending, and other expenses by function. Additionally, consider borrowing requirements, total revenues, non-renewable resource revenues, personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, transfers from the Government of Canada, other revenues by source, and any other relevant fiscal variables.Conduct a comprehensive fiscal sensitivity and scenario analysis to evaluate the impact of maintaining the current situation versus pursuing independence on Alberta’s fiscal statement of operations, which includes revenues and expenses, as well as its assets and liabilities balance sheet. This analysis should consider adjustments in key variables such as oil prices, the WTI-WCS differential, interest rates, GDP, employment, primary household income, and net corporate operating surplus (NCOS).The Alberta government talks about the need to be transparent on the costs and benefits of independence to ensure that Albertans are fully informed of the various choices and impacts. Achieving the elements of the SPP and AP checklist as outlined above will go some distance in achieving that transparency.Lennie Kaplan spent more than two decades in the public service of Alberta, focusing on government fiscal, economic, energy, and environmental policy. He served as a senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of the Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance, where he worked on cross–ministry initiatives assessing the economic and fiscal impacts of federal climate and energy policies and assisted in developing meaningful options to reform federal–provincial fiscal arrangements. He later served as executive director of the MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s Finances. He has continued to contribute to public policy discussions through research and commentary on public finance, energy policy, climate policy, and economic competitiveness.
