KAPLAN: Smith’s government must prepare and release a full cost-benefit analysis of Alberta's independence

Now that Premier Danielle Smith has decided to put a question on Alberta independence on the referendum ballot this fall for Albertans to consider, the UCP government needs to prepare and release a full economic and fiscal cost/benefit analysis of the impacts of independence. The Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) has released what it considers to be a fully costed plan for an independent Alberta. A comprehensive analysis by the Alberta government on the impacts of independence would help clear up any misconceptions and give Albertans the “full goods” as we head into a referendum campaign this summer and fall.Alberta independence has become a significant public policy issue, but neither the Alberta Treasury Board and Finance nor the Executive Council, Intergovernmental and International Relations, have done a concrete analysis of what Alberta independence would mean economically and financially, even as a risk-planning exercise, despite numerous Access to Information (ATI) requests I have filed over the past year. The most recent request to the Executive Council filed on May 4 reveals that no documents have been prepared. If the necessary capacity to do this sort of comprehensive analysis is not available in-house within Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and/or Executive Council, the Smith government should hire a highly respected independent forecasting firm, such as the Conference Board of Canada (now Signal 49 Research) or Stokes Economics, to perform this critical work..Today, I am calling on the Smith government to prepare a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of Alberta independence as part of risk scenario planning and release the report by August 15 so Albertans can consider its findings during the fall referendum campaign. The government’s role is to inform its citizens about the likely benefits and costs and the consequences of serious policy choices. Shouldn’t the Smith government assist Albertans by testing the APP fiscal plan and showing whether it adds up? Don’t Albertans — whether they support or oppose independence — deserve clear and objective information about its economic and financial consequences before they are asked to vote?As Albertans continue to debate the merits of independence, one thing shouldn’t be up for debate: the Smith government has a duty to provide accurate and transparent analysis of the impacts of Alberta independence. At the very least, Albertans deserve all the numbers before being asked to vote on their future this fall. Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance. During his tenure, he focused, among his other duties, on assisting in the development of meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements.

KAPLAN: Smith’s government must prepare and release a full cost-benefit analysis of Alberta's independence

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