Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance (TB&F). During his tenure, he focused, among his other duties, on assisting in the development of meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements. In 2019, he served as executive director to the MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s Finances.The mystery of the Alberta government’s $400 billion estimate of the cost of Alberta independence has now deepened.A recent request filed with Alberta Treasury Board and Finance (TB&F) reveals that there could be responsive records to support the Alberta government’s $400 billion estimate of the cost of Alberta independence; records that the Office of the Premier and Ministry of Executive Council appear not to have in their possession. I am waiting to see what TB&F finally discloses in terms of relevant records.In early June 2026, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith pointed out in a news conference that the government’s initial assessment of the costs of Alberta independence showed almost $400 billion in transitional costs, plus between $25 billion to $50 billion in annual costs.However, since early June, the Alberta government has not been forthcoming about providing a detailed accounting of how the $400 billion cost estimate was derived and calculated despite my numerous requests..On the $400 billion cost estimate for Alberta independence, there appears to be some real confusion within the Alberta government. Is TB&F independently conducting detailed analysis on the costs of Alberta independence, analysis not shared with the Ministry of Executive Council? Just where and from whom did Premier Smith get the $400 billion cost estimate? There needs to be a resolution to the confusion.There is a wide difference between the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) estimate of one-time setup and transition costs for an independent Alberta of between $2.8 billion to $7.5 billion and the Alberta government's $400 billion estimate.Albertans are now hoping that the University of Calgary School of Public Policy (SPP) and the advisory panel can clear up the mystery of the $400 billion government cost of independence estimate when their reports come out next week.In the meantime, TB&F should immediately release the detailed accounting of how it came up with the $400 billion cost estimate of independence. Albertans deserve some answers.Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance (TB&F). During his tenure, he focused, among his other duties, on assisting in the development of meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements. In 2019, he served as executive director to the MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s Finances.
