Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance (TB&F). During his tenure, he focused, among his other duties, on assisting in the development of meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements. In 2019, he served as executive director to the MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s Finances.In early June 2026, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith provided her government’s initial assessment of the costs of Alberta independence. According to the Premier, Alberta independence would result in almost $400 billion in transitional costs, plus between $25 billion and $50 billion in annual costs. These numbers presumably included Alberta’s $170 billion estimated share of the national debt, an estimated $10 billion a year in debt servicing costs, and costs associated with defence, trade barriers, and the provincial assumption of various federal programs, among other costs.Since that time, there has been silence from the Alberta government on how the $400 billion in transitional costs and the $25 to $50 billion in annual costs were calculated.A recent request filed by me with the Office of the Premier and Executive Council under Access to Information (ATI) revealed there were no records responsive to the $400 billion estimate that Premier Smith has cited. This is very curious, as we would have expected that the $400 billion came from somewhere or someone..With the October 19 referendum vote fast approaching, Albertans need to know the details behind the $400 billion estimate of transition costs associated with Alberta independence. Are there detailed calculations behind this $400 billion prepared somewhere within the Alberta government, or was this some “back of the envelope” calculation, with no written records ever produced?There is a wide difference between the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) estimate of one-time setup and transition costs for an independent Alberta of between $2.8 billion and $7.5 billion and the Alberta government's $400 billion estimate.I am hoping that the University of Calgary School of Public Policy (SPP) and the advisory panel were given access to the Alberta government’s $400 billion estimated costs of transition, as well as any other government cost assessments of Alberta independence, and have the ability to comment on the accuracy of the $400 billion when their reports are released next week.In conclusion, I totally agree with Premier Smith that "it’s responsible for the Alberta government to be very forthright about the costs associated with what is being proposed, so people can make an informed decision."Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance (TB&F). During his tenure, he focused, among his other duties, on assisting in the development of meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements. In 2019, he served as executive director to the MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s Finances.
