Online arguments against Alberta independence often go like this: “I would just like one pro-independence person to answer this question…” and they list the question. I typically don’t respond because these “conversations” quickly corkscrew into all-caps shouting matches and nothing is gained except an increase in my systolic blood pressure. But they are good questions demanding answers. Here are my answers.Your foolishness will rob me of my pension! The biggie for people my age (Boomer) is the loss of pension benefits. But never, in any conversation with expatriates or financial advisors to expatriates, have I heard someone say, “I don’t want to move to Panama because I might lose my pension and OAS.” It is clearly not an issue for expatriate Canadians currently living in a warm climate, so why would it be an issue for Canadians living in Alberta? The obvious answer is that the removal of your pension would be theft. If you think it could happen, then isn’t that an argument for unshackling from the putative thieves?There will be no Canadians living in Alberta if Alberta gains independence! Really? Mr. Carney held three passports before he, correctly in my view, relinquished two of them to become Prime Minister. I have relatives and friends who carry passports for Canada and the US and enjoy the rights of citizenship in both countries. Will Mr. Carney swoop into Alberta and scoop up all the Canadian passports found in Alberta if we become independent? Of course not. Under the Bill C-6 Immigration Act, naturalized Canadians can only lose Canadian citizenship if they first obtained it through fraud, false representation, or concealment of material circumstances. Canadian-born citizens can only lose citizenship if they voluntarily revoke it.Independence or even the threat of independence will cause lost economic opportunities! At least that is what Mr. Carney says with no trace of irony. According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the policies of he and his predecessor have resulted in the loss of $1 trillion in investments in the past ten years. This loss of investment and the opportunities that might have been enjoyed by Albertans is a big reason for the drive to independence. As recent announcements have identified, Alberta is doing much better than the rest of Canada in the large investments department. How might those investments grow if Alberta no longer dances to a Laurentian tune? In fact, if correlation is causation, the rest of Canada should threaten to become independent so that they, too, will win large investments..Alberta will be landlocked, and we won’t get a pipeline! Alberta is already landlocked, and there will be no pipelines if we stay in Canada. No harm, no foul. Mr. Carney has larded the pipeline MOU with so many caveats that building a pipeline is all but impossible under his interpretation of the constitution. But Mr. Carney cannot twist the Canadian constitution to rule an independent Alberta. He will have to abide by the terms of Article 125 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), including the dispute resolution mechanisms of Article 287. All countries, even an independent Alberta, have a right to access the high seas.British Columbia will block pipeline access into that province! And Alberta can retaliate by blocking rail access into and out of British Columbia from the east. The BC ports will be effectively shut down, and Alberta goods will move to international markets through US ports. This will also be the strategy if BC accepts Mr. Carney’s kind offer to tariff oil going through the Trans Mountain pipeline system. Alberta may tariff containers travelling east on the two rail systems. Who will win in that battle of economic stupidity? No one, which is why it will not happen.In the long and convoluted process of negotiating independence, the economy will suffer! And the economy is not suffering now — at least technically? Well, not in Alberta, perhaps because of the threat of independence. The Supreme Court reference decision regarding the Separation of Quebec (1998) lays out the legal terms for negotiating independence, and the International Court of Justice produced guidance on unilateral declarations of independence based on the case of Kosovo leaving Serbia. Our new Governor General will know all about this. The independence negotiating process will not be long and convoluted because the newly independent Alberta, after following the legal processes outlined by the Supreme Court, can decide to unilaterally declare independence. And this declaration will be supported by the US government regardless of which party holds power in that country because they do not want instability on their northern border. Canada will declare war on Alberta rather than give up the huge equalization payments from the Alberta economy! Western Canada hosts 64% of Canada’s military personnel — the fighters trained to know that bullets come out of the pointy end of the rifle. Are they going to shoot relatives and neighbours? It is possible, given the troubled circumstances of the Canadian Armed Forces, that mercenaries will be brought in. Will the Americans allow a civil war on their northern border? .The Americans will just take over an independent Alberta! The threat of being absorbed by the US is to flatter ourselves. The Americans are not that “into us,” and they have internal peace only to the extent their Senate is balanced. Absorbing Alberta will upset that balance and cause no end of political problems for the Americans. They can trade for what they want without taking over bits of Canada, so they won’t take over bits of Canada. The First Nations of Alberta will fight for independence, and negotiations with them will be fractious! An independent survey of 3,000 Albertans determined that First Nations people support independence at twice the rate of other Albertans. The performance art being played out in the courts by some tribal chiefs is not indicative of the views of their constituents, apparently. Independence is a strategy for freeing Alberta’s indigenous folks from the straitjacket of the Indian Act to negotiate a much better, balanced, and modern deal with the new Alberta federal government.When Alberta’s resources are exhausted, Albertans can rely on handouts from the rest of Canada! If anyone believes that Quebec will give up one worthless Canadian dime of their electrical power revenue to support Alberta, then naivety is unbounded on our fruited plains. They don’t share their wealth now, so why would they in the future? This is the great “Hail Mary” of independence objections.The cost of building a new federal state will bankrupt Alberta! Even the current UCP government will have difficulty spending the additional $75 billion dollars available each year (former federal taxes and levies), thus doubling Alberta’s revenue. Is a passport office, border patrol agents, a few embassies, and a “fit for purpose” military really that expensive to set up? This is what Conrad Black of Ontario said on a recent podcast with David Leis.“If the war on the energy industry by the federal government is not stopped, then Albertans will be within their rights and perfectly reasonable to vote to secede because if they did, they could make an immediate deal to either sell their oil to the United States or set up a pipeline and move it through the United States to either the Gulf or Pacific coast, and at that point, Alberta becomes, with a click of its fingers, the most prosperous per capita country in the world. It is a petrol state of five million (people) with an additional economy of manufacturing and ranching. They could cancel the income tax. They would have the highest standard of living in the world. They would not have to listen to one word from Ottawa ever again. They would be a howling success…”.We will have to pay billions for our share of the federal debt! Albertans are on the hook for that debt payment regardless of independence. In fact, given that Albertans have paid over $245 billion in equalization payments since 2007, it could be easily argued that Alberta's debt obligations have been paid. Alberta’s debt ledger is clear if we become independent. Albertans will continue to be fleeced by high-spending grifters if we stay in Canada.The pro-stay people will hear my arguments and respond with “yeah, but…” The plain truth is no one knows with precision what will happen. Alberta independence is an act of faith — faith in the hard work and good sense of Albertans; the “can do” attitude of the early settlers and all that. Those who would stay in Canada are fearful of change and don’t trust that good sense. In effect, we are arguing about whether Albertans have the intelligence and fortitude to demand and claim a self-determined future or are so weakened by Laurentia that we must accept an abusive status quo.In the October referendum, we have a free option to test the good sense of Albertans against the abusive status quo. Our premier and others will say, “Don’t give up hope! We are better together, and things are improving.” They will have to demonstrate where things are better and by how much. Those for independence will have to produce a detailed, good-sense, made-in-Alberta, five-year plan for independence. Then, Albertans can collectively decide their future based on verifiable data. Such free options rarely come along in life and should never be ignored.In October, vote for option 2 so that we can debate Alberta independence and determine the merits of proceeding in that direction.
