LYTLE: The real reason Ford backed down, the US actually doesn't need Ontario

In 2018, I sat on a regulatory panel to assess the plans of Manitoba Hydro to build an interconnecting high tension power line into Minnesota to replace electricity from coal powered plants in the US Midwest. The evidence presented to the panel was valuable as a fascinating lesson in Canadian history but it also identified the significant, idled power generating capabilities of the United States. This was, in fact, the business case that George Soros used to justify the purchase of a majority position in Peabody Coal, one of the largest owners of idled, coal-fired, electricity generation. I assume that, seven years later, things have not changed very much.It was with surprise and some horror, then, that I read of Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s recent proposal to levy a twenty five percent export tax on electrical power sold to the United States. According to the IESO, Ontario has exported a net average 6.2 GWh of electricity to the United States (New York) in the past twenty years. At an assumed charge of ten cents (C$) per gigawatt-hour, this amounts to revenues of six hundred and twenty-five million per year on average. Doug Ford, in full Captain Canada regalia, was putting at risk the better part of one billion dollars in annual revenue. Was no one in the Ontario government aware of this risk?But it is ok now because Mr. Ford pulled his head out of the dark space into which he had jammed it and backed down on his threat to surcharge electricity exports. Sanity was achieved! But did the great dragon Smaug pop open one eye at the hint of this threat and think to himself,“Hmm… these Canucks may not be too reliable as trading partners for critical infrastructure. Maybe we should iron plate our power grid by re-starting some of the dormant coal-fired capacity.”Interior Secretary Doug Burgum appears to have come to this conclusion. Maybe he was always going to do this, and Doug Ford didn’t provoke an unintended consequence. But is it normal for such a significant threat to be levied for a couple of hours and then removed without an explanation other than, “We talked.”It sure looks to me like classic “mouth before brain” activity. To top it off, Mr. Ford had the audacity to try and shame Alberta’s premier into joining him in this act of ritual seppuku or hara-kiri. I am beginning to think that there are only two, maybe three sane leaders in Canada — none of whom reside in Ottawa or even Ontario apparently. Fortunately, on this file above all, we do have sentient leaders in Edmonton that aren’t drawn into the maelstrom that Mr. Trump has created precisely, in my view, to smoke out the idiots. Sorry to you compatriots who believe that Mr. Trump is erratic and dangerously narcissistic. Donald Trump didn't make billions in New York construction by being stupid. He did it, at least partially, by exposing the weaknesses of his partners and competitors. He made them follow his "conversation." As our erstwhile leaders fall into line in terms of Mr. Trump's trade and tariff conversation, they are also exposing the vacuity of their craniums and thinking processes. It is quite alarming.I have written before that the current situation in Canada reminds me of the Black Knight from the Monty Python movie. Now I think it is like swimming with a dog who is trying to climb onto your back, lacerating the skin with his frantic clawing and pushing you under the water. Perhaps the solution, Alberta, is to punch the dog called Canada in the nose, direct it back to shore, and continue on alone. If this nonsense keeps up, our "leaders" are going to kill us economically.

LYTLE: The real reason Ford backed down, the US actually doesn't need Ontario

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