Our embattled prime minister is sticking to his guns and will lead the troops into the face of electoral battle in the not-too-distant future. Says me. Some have called him Canada’s Hamlet for his bipolar brooding amidst colourful socks and “good hair.” For some time, I was convinced the young Dane would follow his father into a snowstorm before stepping down. No doubt Mr. Trudeau has his eye on the prize of four consecutive electoral wins. Success in the next election would make him the first Canadian prime minister since Wilfred Laurier to win back-to-back-to-back-to-back elections. It is not clear to me what Cracker Jack prize attends such a victory, but it has inspired many prime ministers before Mr. Trudeau. In his case, it will put his name before that of his father in Canadian history books I suppose.“He was a nitwit, parasitically living off his father’s legacy and reputation, but he did win the elusive four elections,” might be his entry in the Canadian Encyclopaedia. I shouldn’t be so sarcastic. He is the prime minister and I am a small dog barking at his ankles. I know my role in life.The point of all this is the fourth election is very difficult to manage. Is there something about 'fourth' or is it time-related? Upon the careful observation of several politicians, I am of the view that it is time-related. You get eight to ten years and then the hook pulls you off stage. There comes a time in every politician’s life when, no matter how well you have served, the voting public is just not that into you. How else to explain Winston Churchill?“Sure, you brought us successfully through World War II, but we are getting sick of looking at you.”Mr. Churchill had reached his eight year 'best before' date. Note that some politicians have been able to come back after a suitable interregnum.The Americans have recognized this immutable fact of political life and hardwired that truth into their presidential elections. Two terms and then throw the bum out. What is interesting is they have not generalized this tendency to other political positions. For example, the average age of their senators is sixty-four which is up five years since 2002. The senators have served an average of eleven years in that sinecure with some having served several decades. Clearly it is easier to stay under the radar as a senator than as a president.How about Stephen Harper? He was a good prime minister who successfully navigated the Canadian economy through the dangerous shoals of the 2008 financial meltdown. What Canadians were hard done by and unhappy in 2015? Is it true that he was dumped because of the 2012 omnibus bill that eviscerated the environmental review of Canadian projects? I doubt it. Not many Canadians were conscious of that bill and the claims about its evisceration were certainly overstated. So why did the “He is not ready” campaign of 2015 result in the dismissal of the Conservatives? I think it had nothing to do with Mr. Trudeau’s hair. Mr. Harper was over his eight years that’s why. So, will Mr. Trudeau accomplish his goal of winning four consecutive elections? I have no way of knowing but today’s portents are not good and the current trajectory of his prime ministerial career is in the wrong direction. The press is no longer a reliable fan base, and his personal life is not exactly buoyant. But none of this matters. What matters to the electorate is that he is finishing his eight years and the folks are getting sick of looking at him. He is timing out. Few are the politicians great enough to overcome that hurdle. Best of luck Mr. Trudeau and I hope your MPs are all vested in their pension plans.
Our embattled prime minister is sticking to his guns and will lead the troops into the face of electoral battle in the not-too-distant future. Says me. Some have called him Canada’s Hamlet for his bipolar brooding amidst colourful socks and “good hair.” For some time, I was convinced the young Dane would follow his father into a snowstorm before stepping down. No doubt Mr. Trudeau has his eye on the prize of four consecutive electoral wins. Success in the next election would make him the first Canadian prime minister since Wilfred Laurier to win back-to-back-to-back-to-back elections. It is not clear to me what Cracker Jack prize attends such a victory, but it has inspired many prime ministers before Mr. Trudeau. In his case, it will put his name before that of his father in Canadian history books I suppose.“He was a nitwit, parasitically living off his father’s legacy and reputation, but he did win the elusive four elections,” might be his entry in the Canadian Encyclopaedia. I shouldn’t be so sarcastic. He is the prime minister and I am a small dog barking at his ankles. I know my role in life.The point of all this is the fourth election is very difficult to manage. Is there something about 'fourth' or is it time-related? Upon the careful observation of several politicians, I am of the view that it is time-related. You get eight to ten years and then the hook pulls you off stage. There comes a time in every politician’s life when, no matter how well you have served, the voting public is just not that into you. How else to explain Winston Churchill?“Sure, you brought us successfully through World War II, but we are getting sick of looking at you.”Mr. Churchill had reached his eight year 'best before' date. Note that some politicians have been able to come back after a suitable interregnum.The Americans have recognized this immutable fact of political life and hardwired that truth into their presidential elections. Two terms and then throw the bum out. What is interesting is they have not generalized this tendency to other political positions. For example, the average age of their senators is sixty-four which is up five years since 2002. The senators have served an average of eleven years in that sinecure with some having served several decades. Clearly it is easier to stay under the radar as a senator than as a president.How about Stephen Harper? He was a good prime minister who successfully navigated the Canadian economy through the dangerous shoals of the 2008 financial meltdown. What Canadians were hard done by and unhappy in 2015? Is it true that he was dumped because of the 2012 omnibus bill that eviscerated the environmental review of Canadian projects? I doubt it. Not many Canadians were conscious of that bill and the claims about its evisceration were certainly overstated. So why did the “He is not ready” campaign of 2015 result in the dismissal of the Conservatives? I think it had nothing to do with Mr. Trudeau’s hair. Mr. Harper was over his eight years that’s why. So, will Mr. Trudeau accomplish his goal of winning four consecutive elections? I have no way of knowing but today’s portents are not good and the current trajectory of his prime ministerial career is in the wrong direction. The press is no longer a reliable fan base, and his personal life is not exactly buoyant. But none of this matters. What matters to the electorate is that he is finishing his eight years and the folks are getting sick of looking at him. He is timing out. Few are the politicians great enough to overcome that hurdle. Best of luck Mr. Trudeau and I hope your MPs are all vested in their pension plans.
