“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked..“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.”.Hemingway’s line is reminiscent of a famous line by Kenny Rogers, “I worked for 15 years to become an overnight success.”.“Gradually, then suddenly” is consistent with the sandpile theory of “sudden collapse” which is premised on the notion sandpiles are inherently stable as the sand is added until a critical slope is achieved and then the sand pile collapses — gradually, then suddenly..It's similar to a concept known as the tragedy of the commons. Farmers kept adding sheep to the common field until suddenly the field could not sustain any of the sheep, much less the last ones added..Alex Epstein reverses this sustainability argument in his new book Fossil Future; Why global human flourishing requires more oil, coal, and natural gas — not less. He suggests sustainability is the wrong framing for the net-zero debate: rather than simplifying our world by de-populating it through bad energy policy, we should be maximizing human flourishing through creative new applications of available, efficient hydrocarbon energy sources..Back to gradually, then suddenly… For the past week or so I've been inundated with emails telling me Mr. Trudeau has really done it this time and he's about to go down. Gradually, then suddenly..I question the prudence of his father’s foundation taking large donations from the Chinese government, but I'm not sure it will unseat his son. Nevertheless, there have been several other interesting, unheralded, and unexpected cracks forming in the foundation of our culture..Tucker Carlson showed video tapes that demonstrated the January 6 committee of the last US Congress was parsimonious with the truth. The insurrection was tame, FBI operatives were involved in fomenting what violence there was, Officer Sicknick was not killed at the Capitol, and previous testimony might have been perjurious..Dr. Redfield, past director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) gave testimony about the origin of the SARS-Cov2 virus and called into question all the previous testimony by Anthony Fauci regarding the lab leak theory and the role of the National Institute of Health in funding gain of function research..A federal judge ruled all the regulatory changes used by the Biden administration to open the southern border of the United States to massive illegal immigration are, themselves, illegal..Matt Taibbi and Michael Schellenberger demonstrated in congressional hearings significant breeches in First Amendment protections occurred because of social media companies conspiring with US intelligence agencies to cancel certain accounts and information. Alex Berenson just sued the US government over those breeches..The critical Ukrainian town of Bakhmut fell to the Russians and hundreds of leaked classified documents suggest the US war machine can no longer sustain the Ukraine war..The redoubtable Seymour Hirsch asserts US army divers blew up the Nord Stream pipelines..The Chinese government established a business partnership with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is ending the war in Yemen at the insistence of the Chinese..A growing number of countries are doing business using currencies other than the American dollar..OPEC+ countries are telling the Biden administration to pound sand rather than pump oil as requested causing Biden to approve the large Willow oil development on the north slope of Alaska..Two regional US banks failed because of a run on their deposits, and no one believes the “banking crisis” is over..According to the authors of the eponymous book, this is the nature of fourth turnings … gradually, then suddenly..“Gradually, then suddenly” is an interesting observation, but so what? Throughout history mankind witnessed sudden and unexpected paradigm shifts. Do the past couple of months herald such a time?.Is it possible we're in for a period of wild times of economic and social fraying? Based on the last couple of months, change is occurring so rapidly it's difficult to predict how our world will look two years from now..What happens when populations suddenly shrink? What happens when the reserve currency status of the American dollar is threatened? Can governments enslave us through central bank digital currencies (CBDC)? Are governments capable of creating CBDCs? Are we at risk of falling in love with an artificial intelligence chat bot? Is World War III underway? Has Mr. Trudeau really done it this time?.Just as Gandalf looked worriedly towards Mordor, there are clouds forming in our world and it's worth speculating about what might be happening — if only to say, “I told you so.”.We will look at some of these questions in upcoming articles.
