Colin MacLeod is a Calgary-based aviation consultant, and author of "The Case for Alberta's Independence."Alberta exports roughly four million barrels of oil per day to the United States, most of it as heavy crude from the oil sands. These exports are central to Alberta’s economy and supply a significant share of US refining needs. Yet Alberta does not receive the same price for its oil as the global Brent benchmark. Instead, its main export blend, Western Canadian Select, is priced off the US West Texas Intermediate benchmark, and then further discounted. This double discount has historical and structural causes, and it costs Alberta billions each year..LYTLE: Do we really want to double oil production?.The first factor is quality. WCS is a heavy, sour crude — thicker, with higher sulphur content — requiring more processing than light, sweet crudes like WTI or Brent. Refiners must invest more to turn heavy crude into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, so they pay less for it. This “quality differential” typically accounts for US$10–15 per barrel. The second, and more damaging, factor is infrastructure and geography. Alberta’s landlocked location means that producers cannot access global markets directly. For over a century, Canada’s energy infrastructure was built on the assumption that exports should flow south. From the first pipelines laid in the 1950s through the expansion of the oil sands in the 1990s and 2000s, nearly every major project prioritized the US market. At the time, this made sense: the US was the world’s largest, closest, and most stable consumer of oil. Gulf Coast refineries were optimized for heavy crude, especially after supplies from Mexico and Venezuela began to decline. .By contrast, pipelines to Canada’s own tidewater were politically and legally fraught, facing opposition from other provinces and environmental groups. Northern Gateway was cancelled, Energy East was abandoned, and the Trans Mountain Expansion faced years of delays before completion in 2024. Keystone XL, intended to expand access to the U.S., was cancelled outright in 2021. The outcome was structural dependence: Alberta became captive to a single market.This dependency created extreme vulnerability. In late 2018, when pipeline capacity was maxed out, the WCS–WTI spread widened to more than US $50 per barrel. Prices collapsed so dramatically that the Alberta government ordered production cuts to stabilise the market. Even in normal years, the WCS–WTI discount averages around US$15 per barrel..MCMILLAN: To hell with the east, we want to be released.On four million barrels per day, that equals roughly US $60 million lost daily—over US $21 billion annually compared to WTI pricing. While part of this is an unavoidable quality penalty, billions more are the direct cost of Alberta’s limited access to international markets.If Alberta were to become independent but still lacked additional pipelines to tidewater, it would remain heavily reliant on the US as its sole major customer. This creates clear risks. US refiners could demand deeper discounts, especially if oil demand weakens or alternative heavy supplies become available.Washington could impose tariffs, carbon border measures, or import restrictions tied to environmental policy. In such a scenario, Alberta would have little choice but to accept US terms, as there would be nowhere else for its oil to go..Independence would not remove these challenges overnight, but it would provide Alberta with tools it currently lacks. As a Canadian province, Alberta has no authority to negotiate pipeline access or international trade agreements. Ottawa controls all foreign policy, and national political considerations often sideline Alberta’s economic needs.As an independent country, Alberta could negotiate directly with British Columbia, the Northwest Territories, or US states like Alaska over pipeline rights-of-way, offering reciprocal trade terms, energy-sharing agreements, or infrastructure partnerships. Such state-to-state bargaining could unlock new routes to tidewater. With sovereignty, Alberta could also sign long-term contracts with Asian or European buyers, co-invest in port infrastructure with foreign partners, and use its oil supply as a strategic bargaining chip. .SLOBODIAN: Yet another Jewish senior randomly attacked — just another day in the new Canada.In addition, building more refining and petrochemical capacity at home, if feasible, would allow Alberta to export higher-value products that fetch better prices and are less exposed to the WCS discount.The oil discount, then, is more than just a technical reflection of oil quality. It is the financial cost of Alberta’s historical choices and structural constraints — reliance on one market, lack of access to tidewater, and dependence on decisions made in Ottawa. Independence would not erase these realities, but it would give Alberta the authority to negotiate directly for its own future. Dependence is expensive. Leverage, and ultimately prosperity, come only with options.Colin MacLeod is a Calgary-based aviation consultant, and author of "The Case for Alberta's Independence."
