Democrats seized control of both the House and Senate in the November 3 midterm elections, delivering a crushing defeat to the Republicans. As of this afternoon, November 4, Democrats had secured 54 Senate seats, counting two independents, to the Republicans’ 44, with two races still undecided. In the House, Democrats had won at least 237 seats against 139 for Republicans, comfortably surpassing the 218 needed for a majority, with 59 races still outstanding. President Donald Trump acknowledged his party’s defeat overnight.Kansas elected a Democratic senator for the first time since 1932. Voters were angry about the cost of living, and tariffs were a big part of that. Nowhere were tariffs bigger than in Michigan, where they cost the average household more than anywhere else in America, more than $5,600 USD per year, according to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat who called Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods “dumb” in his own TV ads, won Michigan’s Senate race, beating Republican Mike Rogers. Rogers had run ads promising to end the trade war with Canada, but that did not save him. Voters looked at the trade war and blamed the party that started it.On Tuesday, I said Trump’s sudden warmth about a Canada deal — “very close,” “the concept” of one — read like a pat to Michigan voters, not a breakthrough in Ottawa. The election says the problem he was trying to talk away was real. One veteran Washington trade watcher called the pre-election “we’re close” noise for what it was: wishful thinking aimed at states like Michigan and Maine.So what changes for Alberta? For Canada? Less than you’d think, and more than you’d think.Let’s start with “less.” The new Congress isn’t sworn in until January 3. Democrats will hold hearings and pass bills like Chuck Schumer’s End Trump’s Tariff Tax Act, which would repeal Section 338, the dusty 1930 law Trump used to impose 50% tariffs on about $27.6 billion of our goods. But Trump still holds the veto pen, and nobody has the two-thirds majority needed to override him..As for the “more” side, the politics are different now. The trade war is a proven vote-loser in the states that decide American elections. Every Republican watching on November 3 knows it.And look what happened on our side while the votes were being counted. Prime Minister Mark Carney said on November 3 that the Americans are suddenly “asking less and they’re offering more.” More intense talks are underway, and two of our red lines — the rules that make French content easy to find on streaming services and an American attempt to restrict who else Canada can sign trade deals with — are now off the table, according to the CBC.Three weeks ago, waiting looked like stubbornness. This morning it looks like a better hand. Canada’s Liberal supporters will most certainly be touting this as a “David versus Goliath” victory for the Carney government.But here’s the part most coverage will skip, and it matters most.Back in July, at the first scheduled review of CUSMA — the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement — the United States declined to renew it. The agreement stays in force until at least 2036, so trade keeps flowing, but instead of locking in a fresh 16-year term, it now survives year to year, with a formal review and negotiation every single year. The rulebook for most of what we sell is now on a one-year lease.Which is why the deal Carney and Trump are circling is about much more than this year’s tariffs. Depending on how big it gets, it could end up replacing CUSMA as the real rulebook. Or it could become the bridge that gets CUSMA properly renewed.We know roughly what a big deal looks like, because we almost had one in August. Carney walked away with minutes to spare, but the general shape of it was reported: American tariffs on Canadian cars dropping from 25% to 15%, steel and aluminum cut from 50% to 25% with a quota, and in return Canada dropping its counter-tariffs, restocking American liquor, and giving ground on dairy. It also reached beyond trade into security: a common front against Chinese steel, cooperation on Trump’s Golden Dome missile defence, and, at Trump’s own suggestion, reviving the Keystone XL pipeline.Read that last part again, Albertans: a pipeline south was part of the American ask. Methinks it has as much chance now, with a Democratic-controlled House and Senate, as our much-touted “Pacific Link” has of ever being built..So Alberta, what should we root for? That same Washington watcher lays out the fork in the road. A good big deal builds a common North American wall against Chinese dumping and lets all three countries grow. A bad one rewrites the rules to favour American content at our expense, and that, he warns, would disrupt our supply chains worse than another year of uncertainty. And there’s a clock on all of this: if there’s no deal by January 1, Trump has threatened to double the 25% tariff on Canadian cars and parts to 50%.Now the honest part, because waiting wasn’t free. The Parliamentary Budget Officer ran the scenarios — and they are scenarios, not an actual count of jobs that are already gone. If the measures imposed since early 2025 stick around, Canada’s economy ends up 1.4% smaller after five years than if the old relationship had held, and employment could fall by as much as 185,000 jobs.At home here in Alberta, the direct hit is smaller because our energy is fully exempt. ATB Financial figures about 1% of our exports to the Americans are caught, with an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 fewer jobs in its scenario. University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe’s projection ran higher — up to 9,000 Alberta jobs, about half of them through supply chains.The cost nobody can model is the biggest one: companies on both sides of the border sitting on their wallets, waiting to learn the rules.So what did November 3 mean for Alberta and Canada? Michigan proved that voters can punish a trade war, and Carney’s patience bought a better hand at the table. But patience is a loan, not a win. The bill showed up in frozen investment and job-loss estimates that get less hypothetical every month it drags on.If the big, all-in deal comes now, judge it plainly. Does it kill the tariffs? Does it protect our right to sell to other countries? Does it get our energy moving? I hate to admit it, but for Canada, Carney may yet be right that a late deal beats a bad one.But the meter is still running, and we are all still paying for it.
