MACLEOD: Carney’s CUSMA poker game — gambling with Alberta’s oil

Alberta exports roughly four million barrels of oil per day to the United States (US). That is not a side industry. It is not a regional hobby. It is the backbone of Alberta’s economy, the foundation of our royalty system, and the reason thousands of Albertan families have paycheques, mortgages, businesses, apprenticeships, and retirement plans.In 2024, Canadian crude exports averaged 4.2 million barrels per day, and Alberta alone exported 3.81 million barrels per day, or about 91% of Canada’s crude exports.And now, predictably, Ottawa appears to be looking at that oil as leverage.Federal Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson has described Canada’s energy sector as one of the country’s strongest cards in upcoming CUSMA discussions, with energy, electricity, forest products, and minerals viewed as key bargaining tools. That may sound clever in a boardroom in Ottawa. In Alberta, it sounds like someone else is preparing to gamble with our house.The federal argument will be wrapped in patriotic language. Canada needs leverage. Canada needs to stand up to the US. Canada needs to use its strongest cards. Energy is one of those cards.But let’s be honest. When Ottawa says “Canadian energy,” it mostly means Alberta oil. When Ottawa says “leverage,” it means threatening, restricting, taxing, or politicizing the flow of Alberta oil into the American market. And if that strategy backfires, the pain will not be evenly shared across the country.It will land right here, in Alberta..That is the central problem. Ottawa gets the negotiating theatre. Alberta gets the economic damage.If the federal government plays games with oil exports, or if the US responds with tariffs on Canadian crude, the consequences for Alberta could be immediate. Producers would face lower netbacks. The discount on Alberta crude could widen. Investment will be delayed or cancelled. Drilling programs will be reduced. Service companies will be forced to reduce operations and lay off employees. Royalty revenues will fall. Provincial finances would take another hit.This is not a theory. Alberta has lived this movie before. We know what happens when our oil is trapped, discounted, politicized, or treated as a problem instead of an asset. We know what happens when pipelines are delayed, when differentials blow out, and when investors conclude that Canada is simply too unpredictable.The Americans would feel pain too. An analysis by TD Bank suggests tariffs on Canadian crude could raise US gasoline prices by 30 to 70 cents per gallon. That is not insignificant. It would annoy American consumers, hurt some refiners, and complicate politics in Washington.But the US has options Alberta does not. It has domestic production, Gulf Coast infrastructure, access to global crude markets, strategic reserves, and the political ability to move quickly. Alberta cannot magically redirect four million barrels per day to Asia or Europe because Ottawa suddenly wants to look tough in Washington.That is the bitter irony. Alberta has spent years being told to be patient. We were told pipelines were complicated. We were told Energy East was too controversial. We were told Quebec’s objections mattered. We were told activists had to be accommodated. We were told the extensive and never-ending environmental processes had to run their course. We were told market access would eventually work itself out. We were told, rather famously, “that there is no business case.”Alberta waited. Alberta complied. Alberta kept producing. Alberta kept paying. Alberta kept building the “business case.”.And now the same political system that failed to secure real market diversification wants to use our dependence on the US as a weapon.That is not a strategy. That is negligence.A serious country would have spent the last decade building every possible route to market. It would have built Energy East. It would have expanded tidewater access sooner. It would have supported LNG at scale. It would have treated Alberta’s resources as a strategic national advantage instead of an embarrassing regional inconvenience.Instead, Canada boxed Alberta in, then discovered that the box might be useful in negotiations.From an Alberta perspective, this is infuriating. But typical.Central Canada may even benefit from the arrangement. That is the part Albertans should watch carefully.Ottawa could use Alberta’s oil exports as leverage to win concessions for industries concentrated elsewhere, such as Ontario manufacturing, autos, steel, aluminum, supply chains, or politically favoured sectors in Quebec. How is that dairy cartel doing? The federal government will posture as the defender of Canada and Quebec’s interests while quietly gambling with Alberta’s core industry..If concessions are won, the political benefits will in all likelihood flow east. If the strategy backfires, Alberta absorbs the lost investment, jobs, royalties, and confidence in the sector.That is not national unity. That is regional extraction.It is especially offensive because Alberta’s energy exports are what give Canada much of its weight in trade discussions with the US. Canadian energy exports to the US were worth nearly $170 billion in 2024, according to the TD Bank analysis. In other words, Alberta’s production gives Ottawa leverage at the table. But instead of treating Alberta as a full partner, Ottawa too often treats Alberta as inventory.Use the oil. Take the money. Lecture the province. Delay the infrastructure. Then threaten the customer.At some point, Albertans are entitled to ask what exactly the benefit of this arrangement is.We are told we are part of a federation. Fair enough. But a federation is supposed to involve mutual respect. It should not mean that one region supplies the wealth while another region designs the policy, controls the negotiations, collects political credit, and externalizes the risk.Alberta should have a direct and decisive role in such decisions. Not a courtesy call. Not another press conference. Not vague assurances from federal ministers. A real veto..No federal minister should be able to gamble with Alberta’s economy to win concessions for sectors that may primarily benefit central Canada.This issue exposes the deeper problem in Confederation. Alberta’s economy is not just different from central Canada’s economy; it is often treated as expendable. Our industries are regulated, taxed, delayed, capped, criticized, and then expected to fund the national interests.That contradiction cannot hold forever.Albertans are practical people. We understand trade. We understand risk. We understand that negotiations with the US are complicated. But we also understand when we are being used.If oil exports become a weapon in CUSMA negotiations, Alberta is the province standing closest to the blast radius. Ottawa may call it leverage. The Laurentians may call that strategy. But for Alberta families, workers, producers, municipalities, and taxpayers, it could mean lower income, fewer jobs, weaker investment, lower royalties, and another reminder that this country is far too comfortable gambling with Alberta’s future.Canada should be building Alberta’s energy strength, not weaponizing it.

MACLEOD: Carney’s CUSMA poker game — gambling with Alberta’s oil

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