MACLEOD: Danielle Smith’s federalist fantasy is collapsing — Alberta is ready for independence

David Krayden’s recent post cut straight to the heart of the matter. Premier Danielle Smith finds herself in an “extremely uncomfortable and untenable position,” he wrote: “she leads a United Conservative Party whose membership largely backs independence, she governs a province where separatist sentiment is climbing to record levels, yet she insists on remaining a committed federalist.”.That tension has never been more glaring since her May 8 meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney. Smith emerged, telling reporters she had shifted from saying “if” an energy memorandum of understanding would be signed to “when.” She spoke of “significant progress” on a West Coast pipeline and carbon pricing framework, admitting that both industry and ordinary Albertans are “getting a little bit impatient” but insisting these talks prove “Canada can work.”Let’s be honest with ourselves. This is the same pattern we have watched for years. In early 2025, Smith tabled nine concrete demands: repeal Bill C-69, scrap the emissions cap, secure unfettered pipeline access to both coasts, fix equalization, and more. Months came and went with almost none of the core legislative changes delivered. Now we are offered another incremental MOU while the structural chokeholds on our energy sector remain. The frustration is real, and it is justified..Smith’s public position has never wavered. “I do not support Alberta separating from Canada,” she has repeatedly stated. “I personally still have hope that there is a path forward for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” Her October 19 referendum will ask Albertans about immigration controls, Senate abolition, provincial court appointments, and constitutional priority for provincial laws, all of which are framed explicitly as steps to strengthen our place inside Confederation, not to leave it. Even on citizen-initiated independence petitions, she has said she would include the question only if signatures are validated, while her government actively campaigns for the other nine. While the requisite number of signatures has been submitted, she has yet to make a public comment on that.Meanwhile, the ground beneath her is shifting. Polls this spring show support for outright independence up to 30% — a five-year high — with another 15% to 20% of those who would vote to stay willing to support independence “to send a message to Ottawa.” Inside the UCP, a plurality of voters now lean toward leaving. Independence candidates are pulling serious numbers in byelections, and independence Albertans are being broadly urged to join the UCP party to make their voices heard.This is no longer a fringe sentiment. There is a growing recognition that Confederation has become a net loss for Alberta. We send billions eastward in equalization while Ottawa layers on regulatory barriers that block our markets, cap our production, and treat our resource wealth as a national problem rather than a provincial strength. An independent Alberta could control its own borders, pension plan, trade policy, and resource revenues, free from the political vetoes of provinces that benefit from our subsidies yet block our pipelines..Smith’s defenders argue that staying offers scale, shared infrastructure, and diplomatic weight that a landlocked nation would struggle to replace. They credit her Sovereignty Act and persistent negotiations with forcing Ottawa to the table. Yet every fresh MOU feels like crumbs when the loaf has already been sliced in Ottawa’s favour for decades. Her strategy of channelling legitimate anger into limited referendums and incremental deals now looks less like prudent leadership and more like delay. It risks alienating the very base that elected her while the window for decisive action narrows.Alberta has waited long enough. The rising independence tide inside the UCP and across our province is not a problem to be managed; it is a signal that the status quo is broken. Premier Smith’s continued insistence on fixing a federation that has repeatedly shown it will not be fixed is testing the patience of too many of us. We deserve a leader willing to follow where the people are clearly heading.The choice before us this October, and in the months that follow, is whether we keep hoping for a “new relationship” that never materializes, or whether we finally chart our own course. Alberta’s future should not be held hostage by federalist nostalgia. It is time to let go and build the independent, prosperous province we know we can be.

MACLEOD: Danielle Smith’s federalist fantasy is collapsing — Alberta is ready for independence

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