MACLEOD: From Alberta First to Ottawa-approved — the transformation of Danielle Smith

There was Danielle Smith again, standing beside Prime Minister Mark Carney in Red Deer, smiling for the cameras as Ottawa announced a $510-million agreement for municipal water and wastewater infrastructure.Accepting the return of Albertans’ federal tax dollars is not surrender. Premiers must negotiate, cooperate, and secure funding. But this announcement cannot be viewed in isolation. The Danielle Smith now appearing comfortably beside Carney bears little resemblance to the leader who asked Albertans to elect her.That Danielle Smith promised confrontation. This one delivers accommodation.During the 2023 election campaign, the UCP’s official tax announcement declared that a Smith government would work to "axe the carbon tax altogether." The same release promised a No Tax Hike Guarantee and accused the federal government of making everything Albertans need more expensive.On election night, Smith went considerably further. She warned that Ottawa’s proposed electricity regulations and oil and gas emissions cap would destroy jobs, drive away investment, and endanger Alberta’s power grid.“As premier, I cannot under any circumstances allow these contemplated federal policies to be inflicted upon Albertans,” Smith declared in her election-night speech. “I simply can’t. And I won’t.” That was not an incidental remark. It was the climax of her victory speech and the clearest statement of what her mandate supposedly meant. .Albertans elected Smith because they believed she understood that Ottawa’s economic attacks were not minor disagreements to be managed through federal working groups. They were deliberate attempts to control Alberta’s resources, constrain production, and subordinate provincial jurisdiction to a national net-zero agenda.Smith said she would stop them. Instead, she has signed Alberta into Ottawa’s climate framework.To be fair, the agreement Smith negotiated with Carney contains real concessions. Ottawa has agreed not to implement its oil and gas emissions cap, to hold the Clean Electricity Regulations in abeyance under specified conditions, and to advance a proposed West Coast pipeline through the federal approval system.Those are gains. But they came with a substantial price.Under the implementation agreement, Alberta’s headline industrial carbon price will rise from $95 per tonne in 2026 to $115 in 2030, $130 in 2035, and $140 by 2040. Alberta must also establish a regulated floor price for carbon credits, progressively tighten emissions benchmarks, and operate its TIER system consistently with an updated federal benchmark. Smith’s election promise to axe the carbon tax referred primarily to Ottawa’s consumer fuel charge, while the agreement concerns industrial carbon pricing. They are not identical policies.But “axe the carbon tax altogether” was deliberately sweeping language. Smith did not campaign by promising to eliminate one carbon tax while negotiating increases to another. She built her political identity around opposition to carbon taxation and federal climate control. She is now defending an agreement that entrenches both..The premier who promised to protect Alberta from federal interference has agreed to an industrial carbon pricing schedule negotiated with Ottawa, measured against federal expectations and subject to continuing joint review.That is not Ottawa withdrawing from Alberta’s jurisdiction. It is Smith formalizing Ottawa’s involvement.Then there is the Pathways carbon capture project.Smith now presents carbon capture as the great bargain that will unlock higher oilsands production and a new pipeline. Companies should be free to invest in carbon capture when they believe it is commercially worthwhile. But that is not what Smith negotiated.Under the federal-provincial MOU, Alberta committed to extending its Carbon Capture Incentive Program to support Pathways. Both governments agreed that Pathways and the proposed oil pipeline would be “mutually dependent.” The commencement of the carbon capture project is a precondition for the pipeline, while the pipeline is also a precondition for Pathways.In plain English, Alberta cannot simply develop the export infrastructure it needs. It must first participate in one of the world’s largest and most expensive carbon-capture schemes to satisfy Ottawa’s climate conditions..The implementation agreement goes further. Alberta and Ottawa will jointly issue carbon contracts covering as much as 75 million tonnes of emissions reductions, with each government accepting potential liabilities of up to $600 million. Alberta will tighten industrial emissions requirements while offering public support to projects intended to help companies comply. This is being advertised as an Alberta victory. To me, it looks much more like a federally designed admission price.Alberta accepts escalating industrial carbon costs, subsidized carbon capture, methane-reduction targets, and continuing federal oversight. In return, Ottawa promises an approval process for a pipeline that still requires consultation, regulatory authorization, private financing, and satisfaction of the conditions attached to Pathways.That is not a pipeline in the ground. It is conditional permission to keep asking.Smith once argued that Alberta possessed the constitutional authority and economic strength to set its own course. Now she appears grateful whenever Ottawa offers conditional approval to develop resources Alberta already owns.The transformation is unmistakable..She was elected promising that Ottawa’s emissions policies would not be inflicted upon Alberta. She has now signed Alberta into a jointly administered emissions framework.She campaigned against carbon taxation. She has agreed to scheduled increases in industrial carbon prices.She promised to defend Alberta’s exclusive jurisdiction. She has accepted continuing federal review of the province’s carbon market.She promised to stand between Alberta and Ottawa. Increasingly, she stands beside Ottawa and explains its conditions to Albertans.Compromise becomes capitulation when virtually every concession travels in the same direction: toward higher carbon costs, greater government involvement, and continued federal influence over Alberta’s energy development.Smith was elected to change the relationship. Instead, the relationship changed her.She may still occupy the Premier’s office and lead the United Conservative Party. But on the central promise that carried her to power, which was resisting federal control of Alberta’s economy, one must reasonably conclude that she no longer represents the voters who put her there.Albertans voted for a firewall. What they have now is Ottawa’s implementation manager.

MACLEOD: From Alberta First to Ottawa-approved — the transformation of Danielle Smith

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