Albertans were promised a pipeline once before. They said it would be quick, cheap, and easy. We would be shipping oil to tidewater in just a few years.It took ten and a half years and cost six times the estimate. Now we are being told it will be different this time. I'd like to believe that. But I read the TMX file first, and I believe past experience best predicts future behaviour.Let’s start with the pitch. In December 2013, Kinder Morgan filed to expand Trans Mountain at $5.4 billion. The line already existed. The right-of-way was already there. How hard could it be?Then reality arrived. In November 2014, authorities arrested more than a hundred people on Burnaby Mountain. Cabinet approved the project in November 2016, and the estimate had climbed to $7.4 billion by 2017. In 2018, Ottawa bought the line for about $4.5 billion. That August, the Federal Court of Appeal quashed the approval. The reasons were inadequate consultation with indigenous nations and a flawed review of tanker traffic.Ottawa re-approved it in 2019. The price kept climbing. It was $12.6 billion in 2020 and $21.4 billion in 2022. It finished near $34 billion, and oil began to flow in May 2024. That’s a sixfold overrun. Fair enough.Now look at what is on the table. This past July, Premier Smith and Prime Minister Carney announced a new West Coast line. It would move one million barrels a day from Bruderheim to Roberts Bank, mostly along the TMX corridor. I have written about its feasibility. Trans Mountain Corporation, a Crown corporation, will lead the build, Alberta will take a stake, and Pembina will hold 10%. Alberta's Major Projects submission puts the cost at $35.2 to $43.7 billion. Construction starts September 2027. Oil flows around 2033 or 2034..Even the optimists hedge. CIBC analysts called the schedule best-case. When the bank says best-case, believe the bank.Now let's run the cynical version, based on our past experiences. Everything below is my scenario, not a prediction of fact.Late 2026, the national interest designation draws a legal challenge, or just slips. In 2027, First Nations and the BC government go to court. Construction slips from September 2027 to 2028 or 2029. From 2028 to 2030, there will be protests, injunctions, and a possible ruling on the duty to consult that resets the clock the way it did in 2018. Oil flows in 2036 to 2038, if TMX's ten and a half years from filing holds. That is three to four years late.Now the money. Take the $35.2 to $43.7 billion base. A mild overrun of 1.5 times gives $53 to $66 billion. TMX went from $12.6 billion in 2020 to $34 billion at the end. That is 2.7 times. Apply it here and you get $95 to $118 billion. Call that the cynical case.Apply the full sixfold TMX overrun, and you get $211 to $262 billion. That's satire. Hopefully. This estimate already carries the scars of TMX, so I don't expect it. But in 2013 nobody expected $34 billion either.Here is the part that matters for Albertans. Follow the money, and the private money isn't there. In 2018, Kinder Morgan, a private company with every incentive to build, stopped non-essential spending and walked. It would not carry the risk. Ottawa bought the line, and taxpayers have owned it ever since. Now look at who is lined up for the new one. Trans Mountain Corporation, a federal Crown corporation, leads the build. Alberta takes a stake. .The only private partner named so far is Pembina, at 10%, with an option for 10% more. My cynical self tells me that 10% is fully guaranteed. Everyone else in the room is public. That tells you how the people who do this for a living price the risk. When the bill goes sideways, and TMX example says it will, the overrun lands on taxpayers. Not on shareholders, not on a private balance sheet. On us. And Alberta doesn't hold the pen. Designation, consultation, the courts, and the federal partner all sit in the hands of the Laurentian elite, or in the hands of people they can overrule or fail to overrule. Albertans carry the risk. Even the decision to try again isn't ours either.I am not telling you not to build it. Alberta needs tidewater access. I'm telling you to price in the pattern before anyone promises a date for oil to actually flow.We have run this experiment. The result was $34 billion and 10.5 years. A province that wants a pipeline needs control over the approvals that decide whether it gets one. Anything less is a request for permission, and permissions can and will be withdrawn.Until Albertans have direct control over all negotiations and approvals, as well as our relationships with our neighbours, we will keep paying for the same lesson.
