Colin MacLeod is the author of the provocative book “The Case for Alberta’s Independence,” and the force behind @cnm5000 on X.I have watched the "Great North American Divorce" of 2025 unfold with a mix of fascination and alarm. Since Prime Minister Mark Carney took office in March, the shift in Canada’s strategic orientation has moved from a theoretical "Plan B" into a radical, state-led pivot toward Europe.While the Canada-European Union (EU) Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has existed for years, the Carney government is now moving toward a "Strategic Partnership of the Future" that prioritizes European "economic security" over our own continental integration. From defense contracts — like Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets — to aligning our industrial subsidies with the EU’s "Green Deal," Ottawa is increasingly adopting a "Brussels Effect," creating new red tape for American firms while cozying up to Paris and Berlin..VARNER: Iran is not collapsing, but it is becoming more dangerous.Carney, the former central banker, has framed this as a matter of national survival. His election night speech was essentially a "eulogy" for the post-WWII order. He famously stated, "Our old relationship with the United States — a relationship based on steadily increasing integration — is over. We are no longer just the ‘tip’ of the North American spear; we are a sovereign, ambitious nation at the confluence of two mighty powers, choosing the one that respects the rule of law."The foundations of our relationship with the US that Carney is attempting to dismantle were not built overnight; they are the result of nearly 200 years of deliberate economic gravity. From the 1854 Reciprocity Treaty to the 1965 Auto Pact, which turned the Great Lakes region into a singular, borderless factory floor, our two nations have evolved from neighbours into "co-producers." By the time NAFTA was signed, the economies were so deeply fused that a car part might cross the Detroit River six times before a vehicle was finished. This is not just a ledger of imports and exports; it is a shared industrial nervous system built on identical rail gauges, synchronized electrical grids, and integrated capital markets..Nowhere is this more evident than in Alberta, where prosperity has been built on a north-south axis for a century. The infrastructure is literally buried in the ground; virtually all of Alberta’s $120 billion in annual crude exports flow south through a dedicated web of steel. This isn't just a preference; it is a physical reality. Alberta’s agricultural sector is just as locked in, with mature cattle moving south to US abattoirs and US calves moving north to Alberta’s feedlots. In 2024, roughly 88% of Alberta’s exports went to a single customer: the United States.This staggering reliance makes the lack of consultation from Ottawa all the more galling. Once again, a sweeping national priority has been determined in the East without a seat at the table for the West. .OLDCORN: Liberals $200 million racist slush fund.For Albertans, this "Grand Pivot" is just the latest example of a federal government treating the province's economic lifeblood as a footnote. It reinforces the urgent need for Alberta to gain constitutional autonomy over its own trade to ensure its vital relationships are no longer subject to the whims of a distant capital that ignores its primary producer.For Alberta, this pivot is more than just a policy shift — it is a total economic death sentence. Our prosperity depends on the physics of existing infrastructure that flows south. European refineries are largely tuned for light, sweet crude and are increasingly moving toward strict carbon-labeling that would effectively lock out Alberta’s heavy sour product. To "pivot" in this context is to willingly leave our most valuable resources stranded in the ground, gutting the province's GDP in exchange for a market that doesn't want our product and has no way to receive it. .You cannot wish away a century of north-south industrial gravity and replace it with a transatlantic handshake without inviting a total collapse of Alberta’s provincial treasury.Despite the high-minded rhetoric coming out of Ottawa, the idea that the EU can replace the US as Canada’s primary economic engine is largely a fantasy. Here is but one example: you can truck a pallet of beef from Calgary to Chicago in 24 hours, whereas moving that same pallet to Brussels involves 1,000 miles of rail, a deep-water port, and two weeks on the Atlantic. The "border effect" is real; trade costs with Europe are exponentially higher than with a neighbour with whom we share 5,000 miles of open access. Expanding Canada’s horizons is a noble and necessary pursuit. In an increasingly volatile world, diversifying our customer base to include the EU is common sense. However, Carney’s vision of a complete pivot away from the US moves beyond diversification and into the realm of economic self-immolation. .WIECHNIK: Oil and gas still 'run the world', someone should tell Mark Carney.To suggest that a seventeenth-century trading partner across an ocean can replace a neighbour that buys $3.6 billion in goods every single day is more than an ambitious goal; it is a dangerous delusion. By treating the most successful economic partnership in human history as an optional legacy project, Ottawa risks severing the very arteries that keep the Canadian heartland — particularly Alberta — alive. We can and should seek new friends in Brussels, but if we burn the bridge to Washington in the process, we won’t find ourselves sovereign and resilient; we will simply find ourselves alone and broke. Colin MacLeod is the author of the provocative book “The Case for Alberta’s Independence,” and the force behind @cnm5000 on X.
