The mood was sombre at the Senate Armed Services Committee meeting in Washington, DC, on March 21. What Navy Adm. John C. Aquilino told them was not good news. In fact, very bad news.After nearly three years with a front-row seat to China’s burgeoning military capabilities, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command offered a parting warning to lawmakers, Air & Spaces Forces Magazine reported.“What we all have to understand is we haven’t faced a threat like this since World War II.” Aquilino said.“Their actions are becoming much more belligerent, their rhetoric is more clear. They have now articulated that the feature at Second Thomas Shoal is sovereign territory of the People’s Republic of China.”The Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea has long been a subject of territorial dispute between China, the Philippines and Taiwan, the report said.Earlier this month, China announced a 7.2% increase in its defence budget to 1.6 trillion yuan (US$222 billion), continuing a steady annual uptick since 2020 and making the country the world’s second-largest defence spender after the U.S. Aquilino warned that Beijing continues its “aggressive military buildup, modernization, and coercive gray-zone operations,” all indications pointing to President Xi Jinping’s directive to be “ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.”In its annual reports on Chinese military power, the Pentagon has noted that China now has the world’s largest navy, boasting more than 370 ships and submarines, the report said.While America’s naval tonnage surpasses China due to the larger size of US vessels, Aquilino said his focus is on modernization.“The issue is what’s coming off the assembly line and it’s significant,” Aquilino said. “Ten more ships, high-end warships alone this year, cruisers, destroyers. Full-rate production for J-20s, increased missile system satellite systems. To me, that’s the metric.” The news gets worse, however..Aquilino added that the PLA is “soon to be the world’s largest air force,” a statement that stunned Congressional leaders.It starkly contrasts a recent Pentagon assessment that claimed the country possesses far less combat aircraft than the US Air Force.The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is upgrading the Chengdu J-20, China’s response to the Lockheed Martin F-22 and the nation’s inaugural fifth-generation stealth fighters.Just how worried should we be? Very, says General Mark Milley, the recently retired chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, but deterrence is the key to dealing with Xi & his gang.“They have not leapt ahead of us — yet,” Milley said in a recent interview with Financial Times columnist Demetri Sevastopulo. “They have created a very powerful military. They are not the equal yet of the United States . . . but, no it’s not overblown.”The key to avoiding war with powers such as China or Russia, Milley says, is a strong military, which is crucial for deterrence. Washington has spent the past few years trying to boost deterrence with allies in the Indo-Pacific.But is deterrence working? China's PLAAF has been buzzing Taiwan in big numbers on a regular basis, as well as holding "abnormal" amphibious exercises. Dozens of fighters, drones, bombers and other aircraft, as well as warships, have operated nearby.China’s leaders, he says, have been “flexing their muscle” around Taiwan, “you can reasonably conclude deterrence has held because you haven’t seen a Chinese attack.”“Part of the reason they’re using the methods they’re using . . . is because China thinks the cost of outright military aggression would be very high. My guess is they’re probably right.""Because cost exceeds benefit, China arguably is a rational actor, they’ve chosen not to use military force yet. That doesn’t mean that’ll hold forever.” .Milley says Xi challenged the PLA to be the most powerful military power in east Asia by 2027, explaining that what the Chinese president was essentially “talking about is Taiwan," the Financial Times reported.“That date is tied to the anniversary of the founding of the PLA, so there’s symbolism there. Now, can they achieve that or not is an open question,” says Milley, adding that capability and intent are two separate things.Becoming more alarming is China’s "bullying" actions in and over the South China Sea.Earlier this month the Philippines accused the Chinese coast guard of using water cannons and obstructing a Philippine resupply mission in the region, dubbing it “the most serious incident yet.” This incident between the two countries saw Unaizah Mae 4 come under repeated water cannon barrages.These actions eventually incapacitated the wooden vessel, which had to be relieved by Sindangan and Cabra. The resupply vessel had to be towed back to port as a result of this extensive damage, USNI News reported.Despite the damages incurred by Chinese forces, the Philippines resupply mission persisted and eventually reached Second Thomas Shoal after six hours of harassment. The Chinese Coast Guard further attempted to block the operation by deploying a barrier at the entrance of the shoal’s lagoon.While Manila has strengthened its defence and security relations with the US, Australia and Japan and brought the issue to international headlines, China has doubled down on its efforts through the deployment of new measures and increasing the amount of vessels deployed to block the missions, USNI News reported..But spraying water at ships is one thing, a full-on attack of Taiwan, quite another.Three things are weighing on Xi, as he rattles his expanding saber, reports RealClearDefense.com.One, China is eyeing both the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing (and possibly widening) war in Israel and Gaza and they are weighing the benefits and costs of a strike on Taiwan.Will Sleepy Joe Biden respond, as promised? And is that a risk they are willing to take? Knowing that political and electoral support for foreign wars is crumbling.As Gen. Milley says, "Americans have kind of had it with wars."Two, while there are concerns regarding how despotic regions often project via foreign engagement to distract and rally dissatisfied populations (an old trick) a conventional invasion carries a lot of downside.As China’s economy stutters and it increasingly relies on manufacturing and exports, one must ask, “What would China gain or lose economically by launching an invasion that would be sure to upend the entire world economy and possibly start a global war?”And three, while China’s military capabilities have been advancing rapidly, a full-bore invasion of Taiwan would be a colossal undertaking that would require significant logistics, commitment, contingency planning and materiel support.In other words, this is not a military exercise, people are going to die, casualties will result. And it will impact the entire world.China’s military certainly dwarfs that of Taiwan’s … but any complication that prolongs a Chinese offensive would only mean more materiel, soldiers, patience and blood over time.Nevertheless, we seem to be headed toward a big, Indo-Pacific gunfight at the OK Corral.The US Marines are being crafted to deal with such a conflict, the Air Force, Navy, Army and Special Forces, are also preparing for Pacific war.Without question, with this and what's going on in Ukraine and Gaza, North Korea, Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, this may be the most dangerous time in the history of the world.Will China remain a rational actor? Your guess is as good as mine. We will know, within this decade.
The mood was sombre at the Senate Armed Services Committee meeting in Washington, DC, on March 21. What Navy Adm. John C. Aquilino told them was not good news. In fact, very bad news.After nearly three years with a front-row seat to China’s burgeoning military capabilities, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command offered a parting warning to lawmakers, Air & Spaces Forces Magazine reported.“What we all have to understand is we haven’t faced a threat like this since World War II.” Aquilino said.“Their actions are becoming much more belligerent, their rhetoric is more clear. They have now articulated that the feature at Second Thomas Shoal is sovereign territory of the People’s Republic of China.”The Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea has long been a subject of territorial dispute between China, the Philippines and Taiwan, the report said.Earlier this month, China announced a 7.2% increase in its defence budget to 1.6 trillion yuan (US$222 billion), continuing a steady annual uptick since 2020 and making the country the world’s second-largest defence spender after the U.S. Aquilino warned that Beijing continues its “aggressive military buildup, modernization, and coercive gray-zone operations,” all indications pointing to President Xi Jinping’s directive to be “ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.”In its annual reports on Chinese military power, the Pentagon has noted that China now has the world’s largest navy, boasting more than 370 ships and submarines, the report said.While America’s naval tonnage surpasses China due to the larger size of US vessels, Aquilino said his focus is on modernization.“The issue is what’s coming off the assembly line and it’s significant,” Aquilino said. “Ten more ships, high-end warships alone this year, cruisers, destroyers. Full-rate production for J-20s, increased missile system satellite systems. To me, that’s the metric.” The news gets worse, however..Aquilino added that the PLA is “soon to be the world’s largest air force,” a statement that stunned Congressional leaders.It starkly contrasts a recent Pentagon assessment that claimed the country possesses far less combat aircraft than the US Air Force.The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is upgrading the Chengdu J-20, China’s response to the Lockheed Martin F-22 and the nation’s inaugural fifth-generation stealth fighters.Just how worried should we be? Very, says General Mark Milley, the recently retired chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, but deterrence is the key to dealing with Xi & his gang.“They have not leapt ahead of us — yet,” Milley said in a recent interview with Financial Times columnist Demetri Sevastopulo. “They have created a very powerful military. They are not the equal yet of the United States . . . but, no it’s not overblown.”The key to avoiding war with powers such as China or Russia, Milley says, is a strong military, which is crucial for deterrence. Washington has spent the past few years trying to boost deterrence with allies in the Indo-Pacific.But is deterrence working? China's PLAAF has been buzzing Taiwan in big numbers on a regular basis, as well as holding "abnormal" amphibious exercises. Dozens of fighters, drones, bombers and other aircraft, as well as warships, have operated nearby.China’s leaders, he says, have been “flexing their muscle” around Taiwan, “you can reasonably conclude deterrence has held because you haven’t seen a Chinese attack.”“Part of the reason they’re using the methods they’re using . . . is because China thinks the cost of outright military aggression would be very high. My guess is they’re probably right.""Because cost exceeds benefit, China arguably is a rational actor, they’ve chosen not to use military force yet. That doesn’t mean that’ll hold forever.” .Milley says Xi challenged the PLA to be the most powerful military power in east Asia by 2027, explaining that what the Chinese president was essentially “talking about is Taiwan," the Financial Times reported.“That date is tied to the anniversary of the founding of the PLA, so there’s symbolism there. Now, can they achieve that or not is an open question,” says Milley, adding that capability and intent are two separate things.Becoming more alarming is China’s "bullying" actions in and over the South China Sea.Earlier this month the Philippines accused the Chinese coast guard of using water cannons and obstructing a Philippine resupply mission in the region, dubbing it “the most serious incident yet.” This incident between the two countries saw Unaizah Mae 4 come under repeated water cannon barrages.These actions eventually incapacitated the wooden vessel, which had to be relieved by Sindangan and Cabra. The resupply vessel had to be towed back to port as a result of this extensive damage, USNI News reported.Despite the damages incurred by Chinese forces, the Philippines resupply mission persisted and eventually reached Second Thomas Shoal after six hours of harassment. The Chinese Coast Guard further attempted to block the operation by deploying a barrier at the entrance of the shoal’s lagoon.While Manila has strengthened its defence and security relations with the US, Australia and Japan and brought the issue to international headlines, China has doubled down on its efforts through the deployment of new measures and increasing the amount of vessels deployed to block the missions, USNI News reported..But spraying water at ships is one thing, a full-on attack of Taiwan, quite another.Three things are weighing on Xi, as he rattles his expanding saber, reports RealClearDefense.com.One, China is eyeing both the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing (and possibly widening) war in Israel and Gaza and they are weighing the benefits and costs of a strike on Taiwan.Will Sleepy Joe Biden respond, as promised? And is that a risk they are willing to take? Knowing that political and electoral support for foreign wars is crumbling.As Gen. Milley says, "Americans have kind of had it with wars."Two, while there are concerns regarding how despotic regions often project via foreign engagement to distract and rally dissatisfied populations (an old trick) a conventional invasion carries a lot of downside.As China’s economy stutters and it increasingly relies on manufacturing and exports, one must ask, “What would China gain or lose economically by launching an invasion that would be sure to upend the entire world economy and possibly start a global war?”And three, while China’s military capabilities have been advancing rapidly, a full-bore invasion of Taiwan would be a colossal undertaking that would require significant logistics, commitment, contingency planning and materiel support.In other words, this is not a military exercise, people are going to die, casualties will result. And it will impact the entire world.China’s military certainly dwarfs that of Taiwan’s … but any complication that prolongs a Chinese offensive would only mean more materiel, soldiers, patience and blood over time.Nevertheless, we seem to be headed toward a big, Indo-Pacific gunfight at the OK Corral.The US Marines are being crafted to deal with such a conflict, the Air Force, Navy, Army and Special Forces, are also preparing for Pacific war.Without question, with this and what's going on in Ukraine and Gaza, North Korea, Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, this may be the most dangerous time in the history of the world.Will China remain a rational actor? Your guess is as good as mine. We will know, within this decade.
