Is this really a close election? No, but that narrative will certainly motivate UCP voters to the polls..Even with a major catastrophe, Danielle Smith’s UCP is virtually assured a majority government in the May 29 vote. There are numerous reasons for believing this — the political fundamentals don’t lie..First, the broad voting patterns in the last four elections reveal that Alberta voters tend to be consistently “conservative” (~60%) rather than “progressive” (~40%). (The quotation marks are used because the definition of these terms tends to be fluid and represents a continuum with broad overlaps.).Even the so-called “Orange Crush” NDP (40.62%) win in 2015 is more properly attributed to vote splitting on the “right” and a consolidation of the “left” around one party, the NDP. The Liberals were completely vanquished in 2019 and will likely never return. The “soft right” AKA “moderate” Alberta Party obtained 9% in that vote and will likely be the beneficiaries of any current defections from the UCP. However, this will not be enough to confer much of a vote-splitting advantage to the NDP..Second, while it is unclear how the pandemic has affected overall Alberta politics, one thing this issue highlights is the stark contrast between Alberta and the rest of the country. In Ontario and Quebec, the provinces with the most draconian lock-down restrictions and the greatest constitutional abuses, the incumbent governments were handed healthy majorities in their subsequent elections..In Alberta, where Jason Kenney gamely tried to oppose the pro lock-down crowd, almost pathetically wishing us “The Best Summer Ever”, he was unceremoniously shown the door. He was replaced by Smith who made great pains to show her opposition to his policies. Certainly, Albertan’s views about the lockdowns and vaccinations have changed dramatically. There are nearly 800 thousand Albertans who still bravely refuse the 1st jab. While nearly 3.3 million (75%) Albertans are taking a pass on a fourth dose..Nonetheless, COVID anxiety remains and we see lots of folks outdoors, alone, on windy days, wearing their masks. But now we sadly view them as unfortunate victims of government and media propaganda. Alberta is the birth place of Tamara Lich, Boots and Suits, and the Freedom Convey. Not to mention Preston Manning, Pierre Poilievre and Ezra Levant. The sentiments and attitudes of these folks are the same as those that will support the UCP on voting day..Third, there is a time tested precedent of the right in Alberta. When they replace their unpopular leaders they subsequently win healthy majorities in the next election. Think Ed Stelmach replacing Ralph Klein. Then Allison Redford replacing Ed Stemach. Even Jim Prentice replacing Allison Redford might have worked if only he didn’t call that snap election. Jason Kenney replacing Jim Prentice rounds out this precedent. If history repeats then this assures Danielle Smith of an election win. The reason for this is easy – you can blame the old leader for the party’s bad decisions and unpopularity. This means you do not have to abandon your fundamental political beliefs which may require you to switch parties. Can we blame Jason Kenney for all the UCP’s unpopularity? Hardly, but that isn’t the way voters think. With Kenney gone UCP supporters can happily vote for the party once again, even if they not totally enamoured with Smith..Fourth, the big public service unions have taken over the vote in Edmonton, but they will not win the day in Calgary. Remember Allison Redford brazenly securing her PC leadership bid by purchasing the support of the Alberta Teacher’s Association? By doing this, and by proxy, buying the other unionized government employees, Redford consolidated a lefty voting bloc in Edmonton. The public service unions, broadly defined to include even the doctors and the nurses unions, were mobilized into a potent political force. This and the hundreds of businesses and thousands of their employees directly serving the Alberta government is what explains the left’s hold on Edmonton. Notley merely shifted this base so they realized their true political home was in the NDP. But can the big unions take over Calgary?.The last municipal election seems to indicate some success in this endeavour. Calgary’s Future, a union based political action committee endorsed Jyoti Gondek and several other successful councillors. They were an active force in the election helping defeat fiscal conservative, Jeromy Farkas. However, Calgarians have recently been expressing some buyer’s remorse at the election results. The Mayor and council have received the lowest approval ratings ever, dipping into the mid 30’s%. Danielle Smith has been taking direct aim at some the City’s policies such as defunding the police, the handling of addictions, and subsidizing property developers to “revitalize” downtown. With her recent announcement of the arena deal, her Calgary numbers should improve. Will Smith sweep 20 of 23 seats in Calgary like Jason Kenney did in 2019? Likely not, but it is certainly impossible for Notley to win the 15 seats that she would need to win the election..Fifth, the news (aka mudslinging) of the day will not put a serious dent in Smith’s campaign. Two recent items show why this approach will not gain traction. The first, (which is finally, mercifully, “old news”), is the issue around Smith’s alleged judicial interference in the criminal case of Artur Pawlowski. He is a controversial figure who threw Smith under the bus by recording his conversations with her and then leaking them to the CBC. There is in fact no case to be made that she in anyway interfered in the prosecution process. Her subsequent polling numbers improved. So this attempted mud just didn’t stick, calling into question the credibility of future uses of this tactic..The second item is Smith’s announcement that she will not take more than one question from any one reporter in a press scrum. When we got past all the smoke from the media having set their hair on fire, we can see some of the wisdom of this position. She already had false accusations against her from the CBC, who she threatened to sue. Further, the legacy media with the Calgary Herald as the prime culprit can’t seem to give her even balanced reporting. Pierre Poilievre’s refusal to talk the CBC because it is a no-win proposition is working for him as is his mantra to ‘defund the CBC’. Smith is trying to piggy-back on this sentiment. Taking a stand against unfair treatment by the legacy media will gain her a lot of sympathy and respect, and add to her support. At the same time her enemies may get angrier but their support numbers will not materially increase..Finally, Albertans are well known for their great generosity of spirit. Many supported Smith during her original rise in politics. Many regret having changed their minds at the last moment to vote against her in 2012. But many, many more are willing to give her an honest shot at governing. Why shouldn’t she be allowed a chance to solve the problems that Notley and even Kenney failed to solve? It’s either that or return to a tired, proven failure that can only seem to campaign with mean spirited attacks on Smith’s character..Albertans are way better than that..William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
