William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.It is hard to understand why denigrating Albertans and their aspirations is a good strategy to quell independence. Of course, the perpetrators’ lack of self-awareness is a part of the problem in the first place. When in doubt, try “Let them eat cake” to solve the problem of a guy with a guillotine.But perhaps it is a bit more complicated?The long-term political arithmetic in independence weighs heavily in favour of “Yes.” Simply stated, anyone who is there now will not likely change to “No.” Whereas there are oodles of soft “Yes” who might be persuaded either by rational argument or by political enemies clearly losing their minds. For context, let’s remember the last big provincial referendum.In October of 2021, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney ran a referendum on equalization. It was a hard-line question: “Should Section 36(2) of the Constitution Act, 1982, which commits the federal government to make equalization payments, be removed from the Constitution?” With 62% who voted “Yes.” Nothing happened.A softer question, such as “Should the government of Alberta initiate discussions with the federal government on equalization reform?” Or “Should the Alberta government propose an amendment to the equalization formula to include Quebec’s hydroelectric wealth, the same as Alberta’s oil wealth?” would have likely received 100% support..But no. Albertans in a “clear majority” expressed the view that the whole of equalization be removed from the constitution. The lesson learned is that Albertans can take a hard position against the systemic injustice that is our Confederation. So what to make of celebrities expressing either profane rants against the independence movement, e.g., Jann Arden, or even Tate McRae meekly observing “Canada doesn’t feel like home anymore.” In the Bad Bunny world of cultural expression, Jann Arden probably thinks her vulgar advocacy is effective. But more Tate McRae fans agree with her that what they see outside every day is a lot different than what they see at home.Perhaps the most telling is Paul Brandt’s highlighting of an obvious Alberta character trait of an “independent spirit” in his ode to Alberta Bound.His work against child sex trafficking, not just worldwide, but here, now, today in Calgary and Edmonton, should be a wake-up call for all of us and a cause worth supporting. Yet the teachers’ union cancelled his talk to their members, even though his Notinmycity.ca strategy clearly identifies schools as the place where victims can be identified and provided an escape from sexual exploitation. It is to our shame that our educators cancelled him for some cheap political statement. On the other hand, they are the most avid promoters of the 2SLGBTQIA+ nonsense. Danielle Smith called them out, and a few more fence-sitters joined the ranks of the 6500+ Stay Free Alberta canvassers.Premier David Eby of British Columbia, the architect of the regulatory obstruction that ballooned the cost of the TMX expansion from $5 billion to $30 billion, is calling Alberta independence leaders “treasonous.”Canadians who generally are hatefully envious of Alberta agree. Premier Danielle Smith’s question to Prime Minister Mark Carney, “Will you cover the cost overruns on my pipeline when BC uses ‘every tool in their toolbox’ to stop it?” His answer, “Eby won’t be around when construction starts.” Nonetheless, the “treasonous” canvasser hears Eby and vows to double her signature target..Premier Doug Ford, aka Captain Canada and recipient of equalization, feels that Alberta’s contribution to fighting Trump should be to shut down Alberta’s oil production. Meanwhile, his threat to cut off Ontario’s electricity exports lasted mere days when it was overtaken by an announcement of a big Ontario capacity expansion for exports to the USA. Carney wishes he would just be quiet and not make matters worse in dealing with Trump and Smith.Premier Wab Kinew of Manitoba, with the worst fiscal performances in the country and the highest beneficiary of equalization behind Quebec, suggested a Manitoba referendum on staying in Canada would be a choice between “yeah and heck yeah.” This is humour? Clueless. Probably added a few thousand “Yes’” to the tally.Quebec’s intelligentsia and media have convinced the voters, who are no longer really interested in ‘sovereignty,’ to vote for an independence government. The Quebec elites look at Alberta and say, “Not so fast, cowboys. Threatening separation is our grift, and we are not sharing it.” Stephane Dion’s over-the-top denunciation of “separatist blackmail” points to a double standard long recognized in Alberta. How long ago did he get trounced by Harper for his dumb “Green Shift,” which Trudeau the younger then implemented and created the lost decade? Yeah, nearly 20 years! And he thinks he is now relevant to the debate. Just converted a pile of soft “No’s” who remember the 2008 election.The “on-the-fence” Alberta independence supporters are like the battered wife who is beginning to realize, “Perhaps this guy doesn’t love me.” Thank you, Team Canada. .Not to be outdone by old Liberals, Justice Minister Sean Fraser “mansplained” to Smith that the way to maintain independence in all the courts across the land is to have a single Liberal appoint Liberal judges to support Liberal laws. Except in Quebec, which gets to appoint its own Liberal judges. What could possibly go wrong? Oh yeah, we have seen the abhorrent results of a catch-and-release bail system and race-based sentencing. Thank you, current Libs, for helping the independence cause. Alberta doesn’t need the Canadian court system.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, fresh off the deal of the century with NATO for Greenland, has renewed his insults, saying that when China takes over Canada, they will ban ice hockey (formally known to Canadians as hockey). In keeping with our approach to Trump’s infantile behaviour, we as a nation respond maturely, using Pee Herman’s famous rejoinder, “I know you are, but what am I?” Seems like a good foundation for negotiation. Again, what could go wrong? Oh yeah, even more investment capital can flee Canada for the US.And finally, there is Alberta’s own Jason Kenney, sounding more like Bill Murray in Ghostbusters. “Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!” Really, get a grip. Of course, Mr. Kenney should be forgiven as he is just campaigning early for leader of the Conservatives, which will become open when Carney scores a supermajority in the spring election. It may work for Kenney, but Albertans will not forget being called lunatics and being thrown out of the very party that he created.So, thank you to all the folks who are completely clueless about Alberta public opinion.But perhaps a new motto for the referendum drive is required to bring in some of those strategically voting “shy separatists.” Take a page from Paul Brant and try “Canada, not in my Alberta”.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
