William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.First. An apology. This op-ed is going to upset a lot of good-hearted Albertans who firmly believe in their version of their cause. Please don’t be offended by suggestions on how to better achieve my version of your ends. Please read all the way to the end and discuss with your biggest supporters. If you still hate what I said, then keep it to yourself and just leave me a nasty comment (which I don’t read in any event).Second. This thing can be won. More importantly, it can be lost. Remember it is a political campaign and the winning formula there is always 10% inspiration and 90% perspiration. If you want to know why it can be won, then read some of the earlier polling work done by Pollara and their July report. The latter contains some important information on how to tailor your message to maximize voting efficiency.Third. Now is the time to get political, but that’s with a lowercase ‘p.’ Politics is sometimes defined as the ‘art of the possible.’ Now it’s time to take some ‘water with your wine’ and focus on ‘getting to yes.’ Ideological purity is fine amongst other purists in the competition to be the perfect secessionist. But to win a political campaign requires that you do not sacrifice the good in favour of the perfect. The ‘good’ is plenty enough to move your agenda forward.Fourth. Get united behind a single leader/organization/spokesperson. Keith Wilson has emerged as that leader. This doesn’t mean that you abandon your platform or your attempts to influence Albertans. It just means that you don’t otherwise dilute the messaging or undermine a winning strategy. Now is the time to refer any requests for interviews over to Keith as the sole spokesman for the campaign. If you have cash from your own fundraising, be careful how you spend it. Try to make sure the messaging is in sequence and to the most vote-rich demographic.Fifth. Hire a professional campaign manager. This should be someone who has done this before, whether or not they have succeeded. They will be able to hammer out a strategy for the hard campaigning that will commence in September. The “stay” side has Stephen Carter, a seasoned political operator who knows how to win elections. It is necessary to counter this advantage with someone with at least as much political depth of experience..Sixth. Do some private opinion polling to determine the targets with the most potential. Then do some focus groups to decide on the best messaging strategy for these groups. I would recommend Janet Brown, who, although she works often for the CBC, has substantial integrity and high standards for ensuring polling validity and accuracy. It would also be useful to subscribe to the Alberta Separatism Tracker weekly reports from Pollara. Wherever these two agree would be the best bet for advertising focus and dollars.Seventh. Recognize that every political campaign is directed solely at the soft supporters on both sides of the vote. This is a recognition that the base voters will not change their positions but only need to be mobilized during the GOTV ‘get out the vote’ phase. The soft supporters on your side need to become more committed and need to show up on voting day. The softies against you need to be pushed into your camp or convinced their vote doesn’t matter anyway.Eighth. Pick your enemies, both ideological and political, with some discernment. Remember, October 20 is also coming, and without some real wisdom, a lot of damage can be done to the movement and to its allies even if they are ‘too soft’ for your liking. For example, denigrating the West Coast Pipeline deal because it is not perfect will do nothing to change the deal and will not actually advance your case. Likewise, fostering contempt for Premier Danielle Smith will do nothing to help win the vote. More likely the effect will be to make it harder for her to win an election that is a short year after the vote. Focusing on Lukaszuk or Alberta Elections may feel good, but it doesn’t convert those swing voters, and Elections Alberta is not going to change their minds.Ninth. Reach out to the local riding political activists in both the UCP and the CPC. These people have great experience in running successful campaigns. Not everyone in these groups will be supporters, but it only takes a few to mobilize the political force at their fingertips.Finally, recognize that your great strength is the fact that most of your support is “underground.” It will continue to result in polls that are vastly lopsided but not very accurate. On voting day, the erroneous polling predictions should galvanize your supporters to get to the polls. But your opponents will likely think their vote is not required, and thus they will not bother. The key to the successful campaign will be to solidify your known strengths but don’t bother with your obvious weaknesses.I wish you good luck, but winning will have nothing to do with it.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
