William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.Alberta is in the midst of a pivotal direct democracy campaign. Sadly, mud-slinging antics designed for the quick win also forever tarnish our democracy. If you’re disgusted by what you see, you shouldn’t merely look away because the impacts are permanent.Is the current state of play dictated by the real motivations of the big players?Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Natural Governing Party of Canada (The Liberals) are actually concerned about sub-national issues. It is not a good look for Canada to have two major provinces seriously flirting with dumping Confederation.Why not resurrect a winning strategy and try it again? Given the existing White House incumbent, “Elbows Up 2.0” is a no-brainer.Canadians want retaliation, which will be matched by US escalation, though the dire effects of this will not be felt for months. Will a federal snap election be called before the depth of the blunder sinks in?The 2.0 strategy is already working well. Three successful Liberal by-elections and declining Quebec support for the Parti Québécois. In Alberta, various “chicken-littles” are wailing “Orange Man will take our oil,” and the easily frightened are cowering. Even Danielle Smith is contemplating placing a tax on bourbon — “take that, Mr. Jim Beam.” And independence polling numbers have not moved much within the statistical margin of error.But does Danielle Smith really want a rout on October 19?And who speaks for the “remain” side, and why aren’t they making a serious positive case that Canada will continue to work really well, especially for Alberta?.Is it Thomas Lukaszuk who denies starting this mess and has somehow convinced Elections Alberta that he is not campaigning for Option 1? Perhaps he is really wanting to take another shot at provincial politics with a Red Tory brand slightly left of the UCP?Or what about the hapless, low-energy Naheed Nenshi, who has been a big disappointment to the NDP faithful. Is Rachael Notley signalling a leadership revival, as Nenshi will surely lose the provincial election next year.And what about Jason Kenney and Monte Solberg? One is clearly making an early run for the CPC leadership as Pierre Poilievre’s days appear numbered. And Monte, who again? He never distinguished himself as a federal politician, so why does he think he has influence now?Danielle Smith should have the most influence, but has been uncharacteristically quiet other than “I am voting for Option 1, please join me.” Again, her “because” is weak since the recent federal concessions could be reversed if Liberals need Alberta oil for trade leverage, or Mark Carney ultimately gives way to a Trudeau 2.0 — type leader.And the “referendum later” crew are performing no better. Jeffery Rath gets the headlines, but his comments are often off-topic, and he sometimes looks as though his head might explode. With all due respect, Mitch Sylvestre seems to be trying to outdo Nenshi to see who has the least energy. Both of these independence voices need to stand down.The only credible voice is Keith Wilson, whose calm persuasion gets very few headlines. He already debated Jason Kenney and won handily.Smith will suffer from a massive federalist rout as disgruntled independence supporters will create an Independence Party and split the UCP vote advantage. What she needs is a high-40s result that she can use to sustain pressure for the pipeline and provide an entree to discuss Canadian democratic reforms.Is it not time for Smith to fully engage with a credible opponent? Is she afraid to face him? A televised live debate on October 12 is exactly what Albertans deserve to help them face this fork in the road. Option 1 seals our fate for a long, long time.Over to you, Danielle Smith.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
