MARRIOTT: In Alberta, there's going to be room for a tax break

William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industryThis is Part 2 of a 2025 political outlook, this time focusing on Alberta politics. As in Part 1, see below, the key reference point for the predictions is asking the question “What do the key people really want?” Once this is understood then the likely course of action is clear..MARRIOTT: Is 2025 Canada's last chance?.Expect the unexpected from Danielle Smith and the UCP in 2025, including perhaps the long promised tax breaks as oil exports pick up. (See further below.)First however, Smith's opening year and a half in office has been a series of surprises keeping both Albertans and her opponents off-guard and reeling as they try to keep up. This style won her both the leadership of the UCP and the election that followed. But can she continue that for the next year? And what about for the next 2 ½ years after that? Short answer, most definitely. We would be foolish to underestimate her. She and her blue-chip advisors, including Stephen Harper, have only just begun.But what does she really want? Well, first and foremost she deeply believes in Alberta. She wants the doctrine of Alberta Exceptionalism to thrive and prevail.She describes herself as a Libertarian-Conservative. The libertarian in her wants personal freedoms and more importantly economic freedoms to reign in Alberta. In this she gets an A+ grade despite the sour grapes chirping of her has-been critics.At the same time she is not above the use of state power to protect the innocent and the vulnerable. Her policies protecting children and women from transgender predators struck a perfect balance and is widely supported by Albertans. Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre will be following suit in short order. Her decision to forego the notwithstanding clause was an intentional challenge to the courts. These will likely find in favour of those inclined to mutilate children. Meaning, this winning issue will stay alive, further weakening her opponents, and thus be revisited and re-introduced with the notwithstanding clause, if necessary.Despite her conservative leanings she is in no way a fan of less or smaller government. She is a pragmatist in terms of the modern mixed (state and private) economy. After all, Alberta Health Services, with more than 100,000 staff is Alberta’s largest employer. Her plans to create four separate health care agencies, thus breaking up the current bureaucracy, will continue next year. This will allow more political oversight and governance. We hold the politicians accountable for health care so we should allow them to actually manage the managers who manage the agencies. Plus these changes may even provide the means for front-line practitioners to actually provide health services rather than comply with time wasting toxic woke agendas.Her decision to repatriate $100 million/yr from the homeless industrial complex fits hand in glove with the Alberta model for addiction recovery. The ‘sleeping rough’ homeless essentially have two underlying ‘root’ causes for their misery — drug addiction and mental illness. Neither of these were being addressed by the ‘enabling’ policies of the current homeless ‘support’ agencies. At least now addiction recovery will be a real option and mental health supports will be offered along with support for the basics of living.Who knew that securing the national border was a provincial responsibility? Huh? This new and enhanced role for the Alberta Sheriffs will further facilitate the transition to a provincial police force in preparation for the eventual withdrawal of the RCMP from contract policing in rural Alberta.And what about state assisted suicide? In Britain this policy debate is currently raging and Canada is held out as an example of what not to do. Can provincial legislatures enact laws and regulations restricting the federal policies around Medical Assistance In Dying. Of course they can because the provinces are tasked with the delivery of health (and in this case death) services. Look for UCP legislation restricting what Alberta death care practitioners will be allow to do.Rumours of the death the Alberta Pension Plan are highly exaggerated. The chief actuary of Canada promised they would provide an estimate of the number that would be transferred to Alberta in the event they wanted to withdraw from the CPP. They provided no number. Instead they gave the federal government’s interpretation of the words in the legislation. But this is the entire point of the exercise. The words are vague and need a legal and binding interpretation. Look for Smith to take a reference case to the courts, perhaps even the SCOC to determine the dollar amount that Alberta would get.In the climate wars there will be little from Smith in 2025 as the ball is now in Pierre Poilievre’s court. The future of Carbon (dioxide) Capture Utilization and Storage will likely see Poilievre increase the federal subsidy to prove his environmental and climate anxiety bona fides. Then the industry will likely commit and building the infrastructure will be underway. Despite the ironic cooling of the anxiety around global warming, the industry and Smith need this scam to get to Net-Zero by 2050 to proceed, if only to offset any future political fevers for radical environmentalism.Smith’s budget problems will likely go away next year with the increasing oil shipments thru the Trans Mountain pipeline. Here is some math on the expected revenues. (590k bbl/day x 365days x ($60US/bbl/.70 exchange rate = $85/bbl Cdn) x 20% royalty rate) = ~ $3.5 billion per year. So the personal tax cut promised during the election will likely be announced in the next provincial budget.But enough about Smith. What does the newly minted opposition leader Naheed Nenshi really want? This has never been much of a secret. He wants power, he wants adulation, he wants to regain the title of “the smartest man [person] in the room.” He wants to return us to the glory days of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.Unfortunately with the current massive political swing to the right, and his truck full of baggage from his days as Calgary’s mayor he is facing an uphill battle. Nor has his take-over of the Alberta NDP been a resounding success. Lethbridge MLA Shannon Phillips a fixture of southern Alberta’s NDP resigned shortly before he ascended the throne. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the frontrunner Nenshi. He also chose not to run in that by-election and the NDP won but lost more than 5% off their spread over the UCP. Again, hardly a resounding victory where by-elections usually deliver a spanking to unpopular incumbents.His successor as Mayor, Jyoti Gondek, has turned out to be the worst mayor in Calgary’s entire history. And his absence from the Legislature is beginning to raise doubts as to his confidence and competence in Westminster style question period antics. He is also trying very hard to remake the NDP into the Nenshi Democratic Party which may have some old-time socialists re-thinking their loyalties. This won’t matter much when he wins Rachel Notley’s safe seat in Edmonton, likely in the summer. But even that is a bit of a cop-out as he was elected leader to win the toss-up Calgary seats not the sure-things in Edmonton.But at the end of the day it will be his arrogance and the inability to control his mouth that will be his downfall. He indicated that he was sorry that he got caught calling the Uber boss a “dick” but you would think he would have learned from his colossal lawsuit defaming Cal Wenzel. No such luck.Nothing has changed. Recently in Fort McMurray he couldn’t resist insulting their MLAs by calling them “trained seals”. And his weak attempts to cash in on Trump derangement syndrome criticizing Smith for her approach to the potential US tariffs is at complete odds with the assessment of her performance by friends and foes alike.Watching Alberta question period if Nenshi ever gets elected will be a real treat. Then we will find out who is the smartest girl in the room.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.

MARRIOTT: In Alberta, there's going to be room for a tax break

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