MARRIOTT: Is 2025 Canada's last chance?

William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industryAfter last year's massive political upheavals what can we expect for 2025? I recommend good seatbelts and working airbags. And pay attention, things will happen fast. The key to ongoing and substantive federal policy changes next year will be getting the ballot question right and the courage of the victor to take deep and decisive action.In a summary of recent world-wide political trends and changes, Argentina was overlooked but they may well be the proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’. President Javier Milei has only been in power for one year but the extent and success of his “radical” reforms have been truly spectacular. Who knew that “it’s the economy, stupid”? Economic policy matters. Fiscal and taxation policy matter, and it turns out the budgets won’t actually balance themselves. Moreover, leaders should occasionally think about monetary policy because it really matters too. But, I digress.So what’s really going to happen federally next year as opposed to the current stock of “chicken little” prognostications that dominate all our airways and media? The key reference point for figuring out what is next is asking the question “What do the key people really want?” Once this is understood then the likely course of action is clear.First up will be Donald Trump’s coronation (inauguration just sounds so bland) in January. He is already the de facto President, and has been very busy as the last days of the Biden Democrats flirt increasingly with absolute corruption. What does he really want?First off, he is not concerned with re-election. This is good because to quote Thomas Sowell, “The reason so many problems do not get solved in Washington is that solving those problems is not the No. 1 priority: Re-election is.” Second, he has no outstanding political debts to the insiders on Capitol Hill. He won the presidency on his own, despite internal Republican Party opposition from the Never Trumpers and the Rinos. Given some of his more controversial Cabinet nominations, perhaps it is time to take Trump at his word. Let’s suppose he is solely interested in permanent structural reforms that will truly Make America Great Again. What then?He is famous for, and has promised, he will make a number of ‘dictatorial’ announcements — Executive Orders — on his very first day. The first will be to fast track the Keystone XL pipeline construction to increase crude imports from Alberta. Wait? ... What? ... Where did shutting down the Mexican border, mass deportations and concentration camps go? He wants to build a pipeline? Huh? Please remember that pipelines unjustly became the rallying point and symbol of radical environmentalism and climate alarmism. What better way to punctuate his “Drill, Baby, Drill” message than by announcing that this pipeline will be built. Soon.What he ultimately wants for the US is long-term energy security and stable oil prices that will allow the domestic US oil business to grow. He wants to displace more Canadian imports of Saudi oil with sources from the US. And he wants to decrease the US import supply risk on heavy sour crudes from Mexico and Venezuela with stable, reliable Alberta crude.Remember, he brought up the Keystone pipeline and the reason it didn’t get built in his first term was regulatory delays. Now he says any project over $1 billion will get “will receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all environmental approvals”. Pay attention Pierre Poilievre. Alberta owns most of the Keystone pipe on the Canadian side of the border so Trump is now courting US pipeliners to build the US part. He won’t have to wait long.Second he will not impose blanket tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports. Wait? What? Huh .. again? Didn’t he promise tariffs on everything Canadian including Alberta oil? Well, not really. He huffed and he puffed and he threatened but this is merely posturing. Didn’t anybody read the Art of the Deal?Ah ... “tariffs” the new T-word. Six months ago nobody could pronounce it. Now everyone is an international economics expert. Trump’s primary target for tariffs will be China and only in the sectors where the US economy can quickly respond. Most consumer product manufacturing has left the US for good and will not respond quickly to tariffs. Nonetheless, he will try to hit China hard to take away some of their global trade dominance.But his contempt for Canada is absolute and not just ideological. He knows that Trudeau’s Liberal government is on its last legs. There's no confirmation, but in my view he has likely already started negotiations with Pierre Poilievre’s new government, when Jamil Javani and JD Vance — old college friends — recently met. No doubt the Canadian message to Trump was “Do your best deal now with PM fancy-socks but wait for us to form government before you start serious negotiations on a new North American trade agreement”.That is not to say Trump doesn’t have policy issues with Canada and Mexico. But they are not trade issues. He couldn’t be more clear. Fix illegal border crossings and drug flows. However, most folks just concentrated on the T-word as if wanting secure borders was some sort of out-of-date kooky virtue signalling. Instead, the more that Canadians examined the idea and the attendant problem of gun traffic into Canada it became clear even to regular folks, that Trump is right. Why it takes a foreign leader to shame us into protecting our borders is merely part of the great Canadian conundrum.Trump will also likely require that we clean up some of our own trade protectionism. As Jack Mintz so ably argues, “Either we believe in free trade or we don’t. If we push our own protectionist policies, like [dairy] supply management, how can we credibly lecture the Americans when they respond in kind?” Ah ... dairy supply management, the gift to Quebec that just keeps on taking. Remember the 2017 Conservative Party leadership when Andrew Scheer upset Maxime Bernier by buying phoney Quebec Conservatives with his support of supply management? MacLean’s magazine even weighed in calling the policy “dairy cow Marxism”. Whoa... strong words for Canadians. But the policy gives rise to a huge number of inefficient and wasteful dairy farmers in Ontario but mostly Quebec, while robbing the poor and stifling dairy production efficiencies in the West. Needless to say eliminating supply management will help US dairy farmers export to Canada but most importantly it will drop Canada’s food costs which, when we last checked, is the number one financial concern for Canadians.And in Canadian federal politics, what is going to happen next year? No surprise that Pierre Poilievre will form the next federal government. The only questions that remain are when and what will be his platform? It is truly amazing that every Liberal catastrophe and even every small misstep is interpreted as the final nail in the coffin for Justin Trudeau. And yet he lives on. We should trust him when he says “I am not going anywhere”. But even in his deeply narcissistic and reality-denying mind he knows that he is finished. There is no Trudeau 2.0 legacy and he knows his next career will not include any prestigious Board of Director appointments. The reasons for Jason Kenney’s 2018 brutal assessment of him of having the “political depth of a finger bowl” are now clear and shared by the majority of Canadians.But what does Trudeau really want? Simple, he wants a soft landing from his disastrous political career. He wants a high posting in a transnational organization, likely the United Nations. The UN would do. It is an increasingly irrelevant organization, well-suited to his inflated self-image and increasingly delusional policy positions. When he went to Mar-a-Largo to kiss Donald Trump’s ring, I’m sure this is exactly what he asked for. And Trump, ever the deal maker, said “Sure Justin, I’ll see what I can do. But first tighten up your border.” [ And then Trump stole his lunch money and gave him a big wedgie.]Chrystia Freeland’s firing (you can’t fire me, I quit!) which was fully supported by the Liberal Cabinet somehow turned her into a hero. This, despite her being the prime salesperson of Canada’s fiscal and taxation nightmare for the past four years. What does Ms. Freeland really want? To be leader of the Liberals and try her hand at becoming the first female Liberal Prime Minister of Canada.She was feeling the heat from Mélanie Joly who the media had decided was to be the next Liberal leader because she is cute and she speaks English with a Quebec accent. But Freeland just scored a knock out and is now a virtual shoe-in to be the next leader of the Liberals.So when and how will the next federal election happen? The Liberal strategists are looking for scenarios that will allow them to salvage something, anything, on which to build a future. The Cabinet is, so far, loyal to Trudeau and the back benchers are just looking for any scenario that will help them keep their seats. What has been promised them is not clear, but a full scale mutiny is not likely in the cards. Turncoats are OK as long as they are not really interested in their future political prospects. So it will all come down to Jagmeet Singh. When will he pull the plug on Trudeau?And what does Mr. Singh really want? He certainly doesn’t care that our currency is in free fall or that our national economic productivity is lower than even the poorest US states or that we spend more on interest than we do on health care. No. What he really wants is to continue with his current gig as, operationally, the first NDP Prime Minister of Canada. He has been calling the shots for nearly four years, but the Liberals have been taking all the heat for his disastrous policies. It’s been a pretty sweet con job. But he knows it can’t last. The Conservatives will win the next election and if NDP support continues to decline he will certainly be out of a job as leader and maybe out of a Commons seat. Surprisingly, Philippe Fournier’s 333canada.com currently shows NDP support increasing as the more far-left leaning Liberals are abandoning Trudeau but can’t quite make the leap to the Conservatives. Also, it looks like the Bloc Quebecois is slated to be the new official opposition. Scary.But what the polls don’t show is Quebec’s talent for ending up as key supporters of whatever becomes the reigning government in Ottawa. Political philosophy be damned, the Quebec voters are pragmatists who want to be at the table. So the 220+ seats forecasted for the Conservatives could swell to a 240+ super-majority. And if there is a complete annihilation of the Liberals with their former far-left supporters going to the NDP, then Singh could become the leader of the opposition. He would not have anything near the power he has now but his prestige and his ego would be served. This is what he is working towards and hoping for.But he won’t bring down the Liberals in one of Pierre Poilievre’s non-confidence motions. Rather he will watch with glee as the Liberals squirm even more under their predictably bad governance. Instead he will make all sorts of ridiculous demands for the next federal budget. Many of them he will get but there will be a few that even Trudeau, or rather Dominic LeBlanc, won’t be able to stomach. When the vote for the March-ish budget is called, Singh will assure Canadians that he is doing the heroic thing and will vote against the government. Thus we will get an early election likely in May.Which leaves us with Pierre Poilievre. What does he really want? Despite the certainty with which he makes his political criticisms of Liberals and Trudeau, he may prove to be less definitive on his own policy platform for May’s election, because Thomas Sowell’s views on Washington hold equally for Ottawa. What is a good sound bite while in opposition may prove a bit more problematic once you are in an election. What Poilievre really wants is higher personal approval ratings. Did he really need to get rid of the nerdy glasses? And he is really trying to not be seen as angry all the time. But it is not working. Despite the Conservatives being more than 20% points ahead of the Liberals, Poilievre still has a personal negative net approval rating. Canadians will vote for his party even though they don’t particularly like him. (But for the good of the country, they should get over it!)He also sort of likes the idea of 2025 being the start of the Poilievre Era to quote MacLeans. To his way of thinking he should get at least as long a tenure as Stephen Harper and surely as long as his great nemesis Trudeau.That means essentially not upsetting too many Canadians so he can win again in 2029 and maybe 2034. However, the problems he faces are not merely the more obvious serious symptoms but an overwhelming set of structural problems as well. And these will not be solved by small incremental changes over eight or twelve years. They demand big changes along the lines of the reforms introduced by Argentina’s Javier Milei.But will he be so bold as to run on a truly radical conservative platform? Only time will tell. However, the content of that platform is pretty easy to outline. And the fact that Quebec wants to be in his government means he will have enough of their support, even though they won’t like his policies. Here’s just a few of the major planks of a platform to make Canada great again.Democratic reform which includes eliminating the great voting inequity given to Laurentian Canada. If the West had voting parity with Quebec or the Maritimes their conservative values would ensure Conservative governments for decades. Senate reform must be included in this package as the current ‘Independent/Liberal’ Senate will be in no mood to approve Conservative laws passed by a Poilievre super majority.Introduce a DOGE-like initiative to radically reduce the influence and cost of the federal bureaucracy. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are leading the way and Canada will need to follow suit to even remotely remain competitive.Fast track the establishment of a Canadian Utility Corridor with its first project a freshly approved Northern Gateway Pipeline.Support Alberta in resurrecting and completing the Keystone XL pipeline.Fast track environmental and First Nations approvals on any proposed major resource development mega-projects.Commit to substantive defence spending in the North which would also provide needed infrastructure and support for a major export port in Hudson’s Bay.Eliminate all supply management systems with an emphasis on diary and any others that increase the cost of food.Eliminate all interprovincial trade restrictions and harmonize business and trade regulations to a consistent set applicable all across the country.Will Poilievre shelve his ego and run and govern as if this is his one single chance to make a difference? He really has no choice. If he runs on this platform and loses then it is the end of Canada. If he runs on a Laurentian-lite platform and introduces no major reforms then that too is the end of Canada. We won’t have long to wait to find out. In the meantime we can only hope for the best.If you would like to see what’s in store for provincial politics and local Calgary politics for 2025, look for the next instalment in a week or so.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.

MARRIOTT: Is 2025 Canada's last chance?

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