It's a given Alberta rural ridings will overwhelmingly support the UCP..What 's less clear is why. Putting aside the NDP’s rural policy disasters, is there anything fundamental in rural Alberta which makes the UCP their political party of choice? And is there anything the rest of us urbanites could learn from them?.Yes to both..The breakdown of rural to city ridings is 20 seats in Edmonton, 26 seats in Calgary and 41 outside the two biggest cities. Of course, to classify all those 41 ridings as rural would be a mistake since Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer and Grande Prairie are primarily urban centres swimming in a sea of farms and ranches..Nonetheless, Keith Gerein argued recently in Post Media the rural ridings have way too much sway in Alberta elections, and so the electoral boundaries should be changed to weaken their influence. Not surprisingly, he recommends adding three more seats to Edmonton to strengthen the NDP..What he neglected to mention is in terms of voter turnout, more than 30 of the 44 highest percentage turnout Alberta ridings were rural. So I guess one thing we could learn from rural voters is democracy is important and we should really vote more..Another thing: Rural people also tend to be more practical and have less time for silliness..For example, in the country they don't talk about reconciliation with First Nations. They just do it. Unlike the US, the land settlers and the indigenous peoples have co-existed peacefully with one another in Alberta for 150 years. This was largely due to the herculean efforts of one formidable peacemaker, Jerry Potts. (The woke want to rename Sir John A. MacDonald school in Calgary. No doubt Jerry Potts elementary will be next.) The peace he forged is a remarkable story and has been reinforced by the bond of mutual support necessary to survive..It continues today. In 2013, when floods hit the Bow River devastating the Siksika Nation, it was their non-indigenous neighbours who showed up to help with the clean-up. Even now, the wildfires are having a disproportionate effect on First Nations. All their neighbours, white, Black, green and polka dots are showing up to help. That’s what rural folk do..Not forgetting about Jesus — is rural Alberta made up of dimwitted in-bred Bible Belt kooks? That’s certainly what the CBC thinks. Do their religious views explain their political views? I really don’t know, I haven’t looked at the religious sociology of rural Alberta..It wouldn’t surprise me though. Witnessing the miracle of life at calving time or even the germination of a 640 acre section of crops may lead you to acknowledge a higher power. And regularly depending upon adequate rainfall at the right time and in the right place or your whole crop fails, may well bring people to their knees..I would not be surprised if rural Albertans, regardless of their religious affiliations, are praying hard right now for rain to stop the fires or at least a change of wind direction to save their homes from destruction..Even if there is no religious centrality to rural life, that doesn’t mean there isn’t some sort of core morality. A morality based on having to deal with the practical problems of living a practical life. But I think it is probably more like Brent Leroy in Corner Gas than Jesus of Nazareth..Brent seemed to be the only beacon of sanity amidst a sea of loony and seriously delusional people. So perhaps the rural rule of life is not ‘What would Jesus do?’ but rather ‘What would Brent do?’.And what would Brent do about the folks obsessed with the seemingly endless varieties of sexual identity and expression..He would probably say, “Didn’t Ralph deal with this back in the 80s?” All the obviously discriminatory laws and omissions from Human Rights legislation have long since been rectified. So why are we still talking about it? .Why indeed can’t we stop talking about it? Because the issue for this very active and powerful lobby group has never been tolerance. Nor even acceptance. No, nothing short of vocally expressed celebration is required. It is quite possible that we non-obsessed folk have been so over exposed for so long that we have simply turned off the messaging. Brent says “let’s go for a corn dog!”..My apologies to rural Albertans if I have mischaracterized you. But from where I am at, whatever it is that you’re selling ... I’m buying..One more week and the campaign will be over. Most people will be thankful the mud wrestling will be done. In my last instalment next week, I will try to look at the broader implications of the decision before us and give some final predictions for ballot day..Until then, please get out and use those really convenient advanced polls. Thank you Elections Alberta and all the hard working elections staff..Here are the high points of the campaign in the third week..Polls update. The weirdest development last week was the “leaked” poll from Janet Brown which put the UCP out in front by a whopping 11% points, the highest we have seen. But this was offset by Counsel Public Affairs and Abacus both at +10% for the NDP. This wide a variance of ~20% points shows the roller coaster that this race has become..Philippe Fournier’s 338 predictions whipsawed back and forth and even had an NDP majority at one point. He tweeted in despair “Two more weeks of this?”.It may take all of next week for Albertans to finally pick a winner, and many may not know who they will vote for even as they enter the ballot booth..Final update before my deadline: Fournier lists 12 polls in the last week but does not include them all in his models. For example the Western Standard poll is not included because the details were not made available to him. Another source for polling information is the Wiki page for the 2023 Alberta General election. It includes 15 polls for the last week. Its trend lines show the NDP running out of steam while the UCP support continues to rise. Fournier’s model totals as of May 18 are 47 seats for the UCP versus 40 for the NDP with a 69% probability. Calgary shakes out at 15 seats NDP and 11 for the UCP. But this was before the debate. Stay tuned..EMS wait times decrease. For the people who are primarily interested in the healthcare system, this should have been huge news. Smith introduced some practical changes and they worked. This should bode well for her approach on other health system changes. But the media did not give it much coverage and the point has now probably been forgotten..NDP Calgary $1.2 billion announcement. The announcement included money for the north leg of the Green line, a north campus hospital, a university campus for downtown and 40 new schools, plus affordable housing. However, the costing seemed to be a bit suspect. Former Mayor Nenshi said it would more likely cost $5 billion. This shows the Achilles heel of the NDP — they don’t seem to be good at working the details of their policy platform..Healthcare promises. The NDP copies the UCP 1K signing bonuses where Alberta has labour shortages, but promises a 10K bonus for doctors. The work the UCP has already done of fast-tracking nursing and doctors accreditation was repeated as an ongoing priority for the NDP..May 15 Ballot Question? Calgary Herald pundit and political scientist Lisa Young decide the ballot question is leader trustworthiness. But, as is typical, they only point to Smith’s bozo eruptions. What they are skirting around is Smith’s crossing the floor as the big reason she can’t be trusted. The problem with going that route is to invite reasons why Notley shouldn’t be trusted as well. But somehow those questions fail to get asked. Smith will no doubt ask them..May 15 UCP Compassionate Intervention Act. This legislation would have arrested addicts forced into treatment by court order rather than face criminal charges. Smith very clearly linked this to disorderly conduct and public safety, but that part has been ignored. Family member, doctor, psychologist, or police officer could make a petition to a specially appointed non-criminal judge to issue a treatment order..Supported by First Nations chiefs who were very sincere in their thanks and support for this approach. Gloves come off as stupid question is asked by CBC Scott Dibble. Smith dropped the rope-a-dope. She ignores the question and says Notley the worst premier Alberta ever had and then the press conference is over. See Rick Bell for great summary “Danielle Smith hits the UCP campaign reset button — hard”.May 16 NDP raises business taxes. NDP is proposing to get rid of tax on small business, but raising business taxes. Economists weigh in saying the NDP estimated increase in tax revenue is about $1-billion short as it doesn’t account for less business activity. Also not all “large” businesses are equally profitable. Marginal business will shut down. No mention of what the NDP will do to royalties. When challenged over the again weak economic costing of the policy, the NDP economist consultant admitted “I did no analysis.” Ouch. This is the classic tax the rich anti-business pitch of the left. Probably won’t draw that many undecideds into the NDP fold but will reassure the faithful..May 17 Rahim Mohamed critique. Only published in the National Post with no links from the Calgary Herald website. He takes aim at the NDP strategy of contrived controversies and media complicity. He says voters will not fall for it, concluding, “After all, living in the heart of cattle country has made Albertans pretty good at spotting B.S.” Best line of the week..Jennifer Johnson bozo eruption. The good thing about this is Smith is well practised in dealing with bozos. Remember the Lake of Fire incident from 2012. She didn’t punt Allan Hunsberger after his ‘homophobic’ comments, and that supposedly lost her the election. Well, in this case she waited for the inevitable outrage from Don Braid “stark, disgusting, eugenics, oh my oh my.” And then she did exactly what he recommended, she kicked Johnson out of caucus. Did he congratulate Smith. Oh no the very next column “And what on earth has happened to the conservative movement in this province?.Has the UCP lost the inborn conservative belief in tolerance and understanding? Is it truly propelled by cat litter and poop cookies, crackpot theories and phantom enemies?” Don, don’t hold back. Tell us how you really feel..Ethics Commissioners report. The timing of the report, just hours before the leaders debate, tells a lot about the sympathies of this office towards the UCP. I anticipate some personnel changes after Smith wins the election. It confirmed Smith inquired of the attorney general, Tyler Shandro, whether the political prosecutions arising from the COVID insanities could be pardoned. Shandro said no. The checks and balances in our system of government worked. We should all celebrate. Not so fast says Don Braid..Shandro isn’t a hero he says. “Tyler Shandro, once vilified as the health minister who tore up the doctors deal; the one who’s still under a cloud for his actions as a driveway debater during the emotional COVID days.”.My translation, “There are really, really bad guys, eg Smith and then merely bad guys eg Shandro. But aren’t we just splitting hairs — vote NDP.”.One quote from the report should hit home with democracy watchers everywhere. “Non-democratic or pseudo-democratic” countries where “those opposing the government face trumped up charges and are convicted based on political instructions to the judiciary, which slavishly follows the government agenda in order to keep their positions” could apply to Canada through the COVID prosecutions..Nelson Mandela and Rosa Parks were dutifully convicted in criminal courts in “democratic” countries. Now it will be interesting to see if Tamara Lich gets convicted or a heroes parade?.Party Leaders debate. The only smart thing about this was to exclude the Alberta Party, the Liberals and of course Artur Pawlowski (yes, he has his own political party.).This was a slugfest between Smith and Notley. I was disappointed in the format that did not allow them to get to a resolution on some of the important issues, but overall the debate showed Albertans who these two are. The essential issue of trust has two parts; can Albertans trust Smith after she crossed the floor and can they trust Notley to not bring forward ideologically motivated policies..The problem is Notley, although acknowledging past mistakes, essentially said she would make them all again if elected. If you didn’t catch the debate look on line but only at the last two minutes. That sums up the whole thing. Smith says “I love Alberta”. Notley says “Um... I hate Smith and please join me in hating her too”. Game, set and match Smith. See Rick Bell’s assessment of the debate. .Corbella remembers 2015-2019. I suppose imitation is the highest form of flattery so seeing Licia tear into the bad years made me feel proud. What is interesting is that she didn’t even try to publish in the Herald, but rather submitted it to the National Post. The Herald eventually (but not right away) put a link on their website and her article ended up in the Friday print edition. Advantage Smith..Verboven weighs in. Will Verboven was a regular columnist writing in the Herald about agricultural issues. [Remember agriculture is Alberta’s second largest industry] Haven’t seen him in a while but his insight into the two parties' agricultural polices was insightful. Particularly the warning for the UCP — don’t take the rural voters for granted..MSM weighs out. Two links that you might want to look at if you want a different view of cancel culture and the Freedom Convoy, and the source of the Alberta wildfires. Enjoy.
It's a given Alberta rural ridings will overwhelmingly support the UCP..What 's less clear is why. Putting aside the NDP’s rural policy disasters, is there anything fundamental in rural Alberta which makes the UCP their political party of choice? And is there anything the rest of us urbanites could learn from them?.Yes to both..The breakdown of rural to city ridings is 20 seats in Edmonton, 26 seats in Calgary and 41 outside the two biggest cities. Of course, to classify all those 41 ridings as rural would be a mistake since Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer and Grande Prairie are primarily urban centres swimming in a sea of farms and ranches..Nonetheless, Keith Gerein argued recently in Post Media the rural ridings have way too much sway in Alberta elections, and so the electoral boundaries should be changed to weaken their influence. Not surprisingly, he recommends adding three more seats to Edmonton to strengthen the NDP..What he neglected to mention is in terms of voter turnout, more than 30 of the 44 highest percentage turnout Alberta ridings were rural. So I guess one thing we could learn from rural voters is democracy is important and we should really vote more..Another thing: Rural people also tend to be more practical and have less time for silliness..For example, in the country they don't talk about reconciliation with First Nations. They just do it. Unlike the US, the land settlers and the indigenous peoples have co-existed peacefully with one another in Alberta for 150 years. This was largely due to the herculean efforts of one formidable peacemaker, Jerry Potts. (The woke want to rename Sir John A. MacDonald school in Calgary. No doubt Jerry Potts elementary will be next.) The peace he forged is a remarkable story and has been reinforced by the bond of mutual support necessary to survive..It continues today. In 2013, when floods hit the Bow River devastating the Siksika Nation, it was their non-indigenous neighbours who showed up to help with the clean-up. Even now, the wildfires are having a disproportionate effect on First Nations. All their neighbours, white, Black, green and polka dots are showing up to help. That’s what rural folk do..Not forgetting about Jesus — is rural Alberta made up of dimwitted in-bred Bible Belt kooks? That’s certainly what the CBC thinks. Do their religious views explain their political views? I really don’t know, I haven’t looked at the religious sociology of rural Alberta..It wouldn’t surprise me though. Witnessing the miracle of life at calving time or even the germination of a 640 acre section of crops may lead you to acknowledge a higher power. And regularly depending upon adequate rainfall at the right time and in the right place or your whole crop fails, may well bring people to their knees..I would not be surprised if rural Albertans, regardless of their religious affiliations, are praying hard right now for rain to stop the fires or at least a change of wind direction to save their homes from destruction..Even if there is no religious centrality to rural life, that doesn’t mean there isn’t some sort of core morality. A morality based on having to deal with the practical problems of living a practical life. But I think it is probably more like Brent Leroy in Corner Gas than Jesus of Nazareth..Brent seemed to be the only beacon of sanity amidst a sea of loony and seriously delusional people. So perhaps the rural rule of life is not ‘What would Jesus do?’ but rather ‘What would Brent do?’.And what would Brent do about the folks obsessed with the seemingly endless varieties of sexual identity and expression..He would probably say, “Didn’t Ralph deal with this back in the 80s?” All the obviously discriminatory laws and omissions from Human Rights legislation have long since been rectified. So why are we still talking about it? .Why indeed can’t we stop talking about it? Because the issue for this very active and powerful lobby group has never been tolerance. Nor even acceptance. No, nothing short of vocally expressed celebration is required. It is quite possible that we non-obsessed folk have been so over exposed for so long that we have simply turned off the messaging. Brent says “let’s go for a corn dog!”..My apologies to rural Albertans if I have mischaracterized you. But from where I am at, whatever it is that you’re selling ... I’m buying..One more week and the campaign will be over. Most people will be thankful the mud wrestling will be done. In my last instalment next week, I will try to look at the broader implications of the decision before us and give some final predictions for ballot day..Until then, please get out and use those really convenient advanced polls. Thank you Elections Alberta and all the hard working elections staff..Here are the high points of the campaign in the third week..Polls update. The weirdest development last week was the “leaked” poll from Janet Brown which put the UCP out in front by a whopping 11% points, the highest we have seen. But this was offset by Counsel Public Affairs and Abacus both at +10% for the NDP. This wide a variance of ~20% points shows the roller coaster that this race has become..Philippe Fournier’s 338 predictions whipsawed back and forth and even had an NDP majority at one point. He tweeted in despair “Two more weeks of this?”.It may take all of next week for Albertans to finally pick a winner, and many may not know who they will vote for even as they enter the ballot booth..Final update before my deadline: Fournier lists 12 polls in the last week but does not include them all in his models. For example the Western Standard poll is not included because the details were not made available to him. Another source for polling information is the Wiki page for the 2023 Alberta General election. It includes 15 polls for the last week. Its trend lines show the NDP running out of steam while the UCP support continues to rise. Fournier’s model totals as of May 18 are 47 seats for the UCP versus 40 for the NDP with a 69% probability. Calgary shakes out at 15 seats NDP and 11 for the UCP. But this was before the debate. Stay tuned..EMS wait times decrease. For the people who are primarily interested in the healthcare system, this should have been huge news. Smith introduced some practical changes and they worked. This should bode well for her approach on other health system changes. But the media did not give it much coverage and the point has now probably been forgotten..NDP Calgary $1.2 billion announcement. The announcement included money for the north leg of the Green line, a north campus hospital, a university campus for downtown and 40 new schools, plus affordable housing. However, the costing seemed to be a bit suspect. Former Mayor Nenshi said it would more likely cost $5 billion. This shows the Achilles heel of the NDP — they don’t seem to be good at working the details of their policy platform..Healthcare promises. The NDP copies the UCP 1K signing bonuses where Alberta has labour shortages, but promises a 10K bonus for doctors. The work the UCP has already done of fast-tracking nursing and doctors accreditation was repeated as an ongoing priority for the NDP..May 15 Ballot Question? Calgary Herald pundit and political scientist Lisa Young decide the ballot question is leader trustworthiness. But, as is typical, they only point to Smith’s bozo eruptions. What they are skirting around is Smith’s crossing the floor as the big reason she can’t be trusted. The problem with going that route is to invite reasons why Notley shouldn’t be trusted as well. But somehow those questions fail to get asked. Smith will no doubt ask them..May 15 UCP Compassionate Intervention Act. This legislation would have arrested addicts forced into treatment by court order rather than face criminal charges. Smith very clearly linked this to disorderly conduct and public safety, but that part has been ignored. Family member, doctor, psychologist, or police officer could make a petition to a specially appointed non-criminal judge to issue a treatment order..Supported by First Nations chiefs who were very sincere in their thanks and support for this approach. Gloves come off as stupid question is asked by CBC Scott Dibble. Smith dropped the rope-a-dope. She ignores the question and says Notley the worst premier Alberta ever had and then the press conference is over. See Rick Bell for great summary “Danielle Smith hits the UCP campaign reset button — hard”.May 16 NDP raises business taxes. NDP is proposing to get rid of tax on small business, but raising business taxes. Economists weigh in saying the NDP estimated increase in tax revenue is about $1-billion short as it doesn’t account for less business activity. Also not all “large” businesses are equally profitable. Marginal business will shut down. No mention of what the NDP will do to royalties. When challenged over the again weak economic costing of the policy, the NDP economist consultant admitted “I did no analysis.” Ouch. This is the classic tax the rich anti-business pitch of the left. Probably won’t draw that many undecideds into the NDP fold but will reassure the faithful..May 17 Rahim Mohamed critique. Only published in the National Post with no links from the Calgary Herald website. He takes aim at the NDP strategy of contrived controversies and media complicity. He says voters will not fall for it, concluding, “After all, living in the heart of cattle country has made Albertans pretty good at spotting B.S.” Best line of the week..Jennifer Johnson bozo eruption. The good thing about this is Smith is well practised in dealing with bozos. Remember the Lake of Fire incident from 2012. She didn’t punt Allan Hunsberger after his ‘homophobic’ comments, and that supposedly lost her the election. Well, in this case she waited for the inevitable outrage from Don Braid “stark, disgusting, eugenics, oh my oh my.” And then she did exactly what he recommended, she kicked Johnson out of caucus. Did he congratulate Smith. Oh no the very next column “And what on earth has happened to the conservative movement in this province?.Has the UCP lost the inborn conservative belief in tolerance and understanding? Is it truly propelled by cat litter and poop cookies, crackpot theories and phantom enemies?” Don, don’t hold back. Tell us how you really feel..Ethics Commissioners report. The timing of the report, just hours before the leaders debate, tells a lot about the sympathies of this office towards the UCP. I anticipate some personnel changes after Smith wins the election. It confirmed Smith inquired of the attorney general, Tyler Shandro, whether the political prosecutions arising from the COVID insanities could be pardoned. Shandro said no. The checks and balances in our system of government worked. We should all celebrate. Not so fast says Don Braid..Shandro isn’t a hero he says. “Tyler Shandro, once vilified as the health minister who tore up the doctors deal; the one who’s still under a cloud for his actions as a driveway debater during the emotional COVID days.”.My translation, “There are really, really bad guys, eg Smith and then merely bad guys eg Shandro. But aren’t we just splitting hairs — vote NDP.”.One quote from the report should hit home with democracy watchers everywhere. “Non-democratic or pseudo-democratic” countries where “those opposing the government face trumped up charges and are convicted based on political instructions to the judiciary, which slavishly follows the government agenda in order to keep their positions” could apply to Canada through the COVID prosecutions..Nelson Mandela and Rosa Parks were dutifully convicted in criminal courts in “democratic” countries. Now it will be interesting to see if Tamara Lich gets convicted or a heroes parade?.Party Leaders debate. The only smart thing about this was to exclude the Alberta Party, the Liberals and of course Artur Pawlowski (yes, he has his own political party.).This was a slugfest between Smith and Notley. I was disappointed in the format that did not allow them to get to a resolution on some of the important issues, but overall the debate showed Albertans who these two are. The essential issue of trust has two parts; can Albertans trust Smith after she crossed the floor and can they trust Notley to not bring forward ideologically motivated policies..The problem is Notley, although acknowledging past mistakes, essentially said she would make them all again if elected. If you didn’t catch the debate look on line but only at the last two minutes. That sums up the whole thing. Smith says “I love Alberta”. Notley says “Um... I hate Smith and please join me in hating her too”. Game, set and match Smith. See Rick Bell’s assessment of the debate. .Corbella remembers 2015-2019. I suppose imitation is the highest form of flattery so seeing Licia tear into the bad years made me feel proud. What is interesting is that she didn’t even try to publish in the Herald, but rather submitted it to the National Post. The Herald eventually (but not right away) put a link on their website and her article ended up in the Friday print edition. Advantage Smith..Verboven weighs in. Will Verboven was a regular columnist writing in the Herald about agricultural issues. [Remember agriculture is Alberta’s second largest industry] Haven’t seen him in a while but his insight into the two parties' agricultural polices was insightful. Particularly the warning for the UCP — don’t take the rural voters for granted..MSM weighs out. Two links that you might want to look at if you want a different view of cancel culture and the Freedom Convoy, and the source of the Alberta wildfires. Enjoy.
