MARRIOTT: Option 2 went from a fringe idea to the ultimate political weapon for Alberta

William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.This past week has seen a decided shift to favourable sentiment for Option 2 of the referendum.First of all, a caveat: we don’t have access to the private polling that is surely happening inside the big players and the Alberta government. The public pollsters are being a bit shy, with the last poll ending three weeks ago even though there are only three weeks left in the campaign. However, the shift in the public campaigns is filling in some of the gaps.Most significant is the change of focus of Keith Wilson to the “leverage” argument as a reason to vote for Option 2. He is suggesting this as a critical middle step before any hard yes/no vote. He is directing his comments not only to the undecideds at large but also to the non-secessionist UCP members who are unclear on the merits of this position for their party. Everyone on the right sees the danger in fracturing the fragile alliance that Jason Kenney created and Danielle Smith maintained in the UCP.A straight-up yes/no remain/leave referendum would have surely resulted in a “stay” verdict and the implosion of the UCP. This was probably Thomas Lukaszuk’s real objective, but it blew up in his face. In a way, the First Nation’s legal challenge to Mitch Silvestre’s petition was an inadvertent gift both to Alberta and to the independence movement. It allowed Smith to frame a referendum question that could potentially give more short-term power to Alberta, but would also have the downside of extending and strengthening the independence movement. She believed that if she could ensure Carney’s commitment on the pipeline and also move the Laurentians to enhance Alberta’s place in Confederation, then she could defuse the need for independence and also solidify her place in a stronger UCP.So far it seems to be working. Carney has dropped his talk of Alberta’s “very dangerous bluff” and is now showering us with money and making commitments to be with us in the long run. However, he can neither commit to the absence of a Trudeau 3.0 at some point in the future, nor can he prevent this Liberal silliness from arising once again.Speaking of showing us with money, is Smith campaigning for the next general election early, or is she trying to buy more Option 1 votes with a reduction in fuel taxes? The timing seems to indicate the latter..What else is pointing to Option 2 momentum?Keith Wilson’s performance at Preston Manning’s Alberta and the West Assembly was a master class in presenting the compelling arguments for a strong vote for Option 2. My advice is to skip right through to the Q&A. The reactions of Manning and former BC Premier Gordon Campbell to Keith’s counterarguments are a joy to behold. They are both in awe of Keith’s command of the issues and the correctness of his conclusions, even if their body language betrays how they actually feel.At about the 49-minute mark, Keith addresses the new independence political party question by saying, “If enough people want something then the politicians [eg Smith] will articulate that and move in that direction.” A new political party is not needed. Oddly, this sounds like how democracy is supposed to work.At 56 minutes, Keith says the most effective way to shut down the forces trying to destroy the UCP by creating a “separatist” party would be to have a strong mandate for Option 2.At the 59-minute mark, Keith talks about the Alberta Transition Plan and how it would work with criminal justice administration. At the one-hour mark, he says, “Let’s use as an operating principle — changing as little as possible.” It is a travesty that the legacy media has just chosen to ignore this scholarly work and instead focus on fear-mongering. Smith also appeared at Preston Manning’s event and was moved to tears in reviewing how the federal government’s policies affected everyday Albertans. This is hardly an argument for staying in Canada. However, she argued that her negotiation leverage will come from the other nine referendum questions. But why does she need a democratic mandate to make these arguments with Ottawa? She was elected to govern, and this she should do. Besides, if Albertans are lukewarm on the nine, then she has pulled the rug out from under herself. Stick to providing good reasons why Alberta needs more power in Ottawa. Besides, Toronto Star readers think you are a “secessionist” anyway.People are continuing to request mail-in ballots at record levels. Special ballot requests are up to 520K, 330K have been mailed out, and 24K have been returned and approved. Application irregularities have delayed approval of 7200 applications. Even at these levels, this would account for about 20% of registered voters, an unprecedented volume. It is unlikely that more than half this amount will actually get cast as people experience difficulties and give up. The lower turnout will favour Option 2. But Don Braid will claim this is evidence of a fixed election, citing Donald Trump as an authority in these matters..Smith says don’t vote just because you are angry. Talk about mixed messaging. But anger against who exactly? Many people are angry with Smith for even holding the referendum. This is good advice to them, e.g., don’t shoot the messenger. But many people are angry with the media for amplifying the fear factor in their coverage. Many people are angry at having the issue dominate all the news coverage. But anger is a good motivator if it can be channelled to a positive result. On the other hand, it can be just as easily channelled into a mistake as in the Notley accidental NDP government. This decision is not one of those.Thomas Lukaszuk has now decided that he is campaigning for Option 1 or Option ‘A’ as he calls it. Because he and Nenshi are the best motivators for Option 2 voters, the more press they get, the better. It is not clear whether Elections Alberta had a chat with him or he is just trying to find an excuse to keep himself on the front pages. Noticeably, Jason Kenny has gone silent or is being ignored, confining himself to weak personal attacks on fringe independence supporters from his X account. In any event, voter fatigue from this side is setting in as there is no new messaging.Smith expressed hope in the Globe and Mail article, “I support Alberta remaining in Canada ... I also believe Albertans deserve a say. The fight to make Canada work for Alberta is working. When Alberta stood up and refused to back down, the country started listening,” she said. “It happened because Albertans got loud and stayed loud. Your anger was not wasted,” she said. Smith said new Prime Minister Mark Carney has acted constructively with Alberta in coming up with an Alberta-Ottawa energy agreement and working toward a new West Coast pipeline. “Not long ago the oilsands were treated as a national target. Today they’re increasingly seen as a national treasure,” Smith said. “Why walk away from the table when we’re finally winning at it? And to those who have always wanted to stay — staying should not mean settling. A future federal government could undo all this progress that we’ve made with a stroke of a pen.”This is unlike Smith and veers into “word salad” territory. But is there any merit to the argument that we can change the Laurentian “hearts and minds?”Do you remember when pipeline politics was dominated by the left both in public protests and policy? Do you recall the momentum behind this was twofold: the widespread acceptance of climate change fear and the near-complete dominance of anti-development anti-resource industry propaganda? Do you remember Jason Kenney’s “War Room,” the much maligned but highly effective counter-propaganda agency?Even if you don’t remember them, it seems Premier Danielle Smith does and wants to continue that tradition in changing eastern Canada’s views concerning Canadian structural democratic reform. This is one of her objectives in tolerating, if not fostering, the current independence debate. She wants everyday folks down east to see the injustice of the current Canadian electoral system just as they came to see the injustice of Canada preventing the development of Alberta’s oil resources.It might work eventually, but the entrenched thinking is far more pervasive than simple anti-Alberta rhetoric. She and we Albertans in general underestimate the overt hostility and animosity of Laurentian thinking against the West. We don’t need to look far in the Far East media to find ample evidence. Try the ‘national’ news aggregator National Newswatch. Coverage of the West is slim and Alberta almost nonexistent, except for prominent Alberta bashing by Max Fawcett. Not to be outdone is Gillian Steward’s regular bashing of Smith in the Toronto Star. Even the National Post can’t seem to veil its contempt for Alberta’s aspirations. And then there is the Globe and Mail, Canada’s national newspaper. David Welch’s recent op-ed goes so far as to deny Canada’s Constitution to discredit Alberta’s legitimate democratic claims. That the position was discredited in Alberta is unsurprising, but who down east reads the rebuttal?And to think that this will change based on the goodwill of the vested interests may be a bit of wishful thinking. It may help in the long run with everyday eastern voters, but even in the current negotiations over the West Coast Pipeline, these attitudes weaken Alberta’s position. Smith still needs leverage, and that leverage will only come from high percentage numbers for Option 2. William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.

MARRIOTT: Option 2 went from a fringe idea to the ultimate political weapon for Alberta

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