The UCP will handily win the election on Monday. And that is a good thing given the stakes are so high..But this isn’t just about Alberta — the rest of Canada is watching as well. Maybe it will end all the juvenile sniping and we can all move forward. That's a long shot perhaps, but it's worth hoping for..Pierre Poilievre says, “Canada is broken,” so vote for Danielle Smith. Many Canadians agree..Gerard Baker, writing in the Wall Street Journal summarizes progressive woke ideology this way: “We are losing our soul, our sense of purpose as a society, our identity as a civilization. We in the West are in the grip of an ideology that disowns our genius, denounces our success, disdains merit, elevates victimhood, embraces societal self-loathing and enforces it all in a web of exclusionary and authoritarian rules, large and small.”.If you like the tone, focus and policies of the federal Liberals and Calgary city hall then you will love the Alberta NDP..Will a Smith win help Poilievre? Yes, but his success is not guaranteed and Canada needs to move towards cooperative federalism, regardless. Right now, Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe is carrying the load alone. With Smith’s election he will have a partner..“Good fences make good neighbours,” and “Speak softly and carry a big stick” are real folksy old-time sayings but they should be the key Alberta principles in future federal/provincial relations..But first things first: Why should anyone think Smith will win?.First, Albertans will be out in force. Expect to see the highest participation rates ever with perhaps as high as 2.1M voters casting a ballot. So far, we are on track for 750K voters at advanced polls, about 50K more than in 2019. We have a lot of pent up political angst and we want to let off some steam. This is a COVID hangover and both sides will be voting in force. But let’s hope this voting will be cathartic and heal some of our divisions. We are a lot better than some of the petty antagonisms indicate..Second, this has become solely a clash of two parties, but it's not just about left and right. This is about two very different visions of what Alberta can be. This is about “progressive” values versus traditional ones. This is about the differences between rural thinking and city thinking. Make no mistake, Albertans will not be shy, they will tell us what they want..Smith’s defence of Alberta sovereignty has wiped out the separatists. The Wildrose Independence Party polling at 20% a year ago is not even on the radar..Barry Morishita’s softer middle-ish Alberta Party is also failing to attract any interest. The media’s sole focus on the evil Ms. Smith left no room for his platform to get any exposure or discussion. However, its 200K voters from 2019 will need to find a home. Those folks don’t like the NDP, or the UCP. So, the question for them is 'who do you hate the least?'.A 50/50 split means it will be a draw for the main contenders. On the other hand, I think it will be easier for this group to embrace Smith’s positive compassionate conservatism than Notley’s toxic tax the rich and dismantle the energy industry..Third, the polls motivate people, but are bad predictors of election results. The endless “too close to call” narrative actually favours the UCP over the NDP on voting day. UCP voters are likely more afraid of losing than NDP voters are happy about winning. So, UCP voters will be more motivated to get to the ballot booth, while recent NDP converts may be more complacent, hoping for newly enlightened voters just like them to carry the freight..Fourth, the poll numbers need to be adjusted by at least 10% in favour of the UCP because that's what the historical polling error has been. Right now, the aggregate of the last few polls has the UCP at 48% vs 45% for the NDP. But the momentum is clearly on the side of the UCP. Look for 53% to 42% as the final count..Philippe Fournier currently has 47 UCP seats to 40 NDP seats. He will give his final predictions after the last polls are released. Check his site on Sunday night..Fifth, the “send a message” voting pattern from 2015 won’t happen again. Those voters saw real consequences from their ballots and will select their true preferences this time. This means that if the undecideds (still more than 10%) and the soft UCPers can’t make the hard jump to the NDP then they'll hold their noses and vote for Smith..There are three possible scenarios to sum up the final tally. I've also provided a bellwether riding to indicate what scenario will likely play out..A slim UCP majority: 44-51 seats. Make no mistake, this would be a resounding defeat for the UCP and bad news for Albertans. The barrage of anti-UCP media will make governing for the next four years a truly thankless job. Like Kenney, Smith will be hounded out of the job in three years and Rebecca Schultz will try to take over as a new/old face. The only people to benefit will be those vying to take over the leadership of the NDP. My guess is Naheed Nenshi will be the winner, running on the campaign, “I can win Calgary.” And he will in 2027 and establish an NDP hegemony after that..Bellwether riding to watch: Calgary East — Peter Singh. If he's losing as the polls are released, then the UCP are headed for a slim majority or worse..A decisive UCP majority: 52-58 seats. Given the post-COVID hangover — and the vicious personal campaign against Smith — this would count as a huge victory. It will be a complete repudiation of the NDP platform and election strategy. It will allow Smith to prove her chops in governing Alberta and should lead to at least one more victory in 2027..This is my prediction: 55 UCP, 32 NDP. Bellwether riding to watch: Edmonton South West's Kaycee Madu. If he's winning there, then a decisive majority is possible for the UCP..An NDP smack down: > 58 UCP seats. Can the Blue Tornado strike twice? Stranger things have happened in Alberta. But this is not Klein’s “Martha and Henry” Alberta anymore. If Calgary voters can give you Jyoti Gondek then they are unlikely to revisit the Tornado twice. Bellwether riding to watch: Calgary Klein — Jeremy Nixon. If he can hold his seat then the UCP is in great shape..Before we review what happened in the final week of the campaign, I just want to say that this election is the worst I've ever seen in 50 years for attempting a partisan media manipulation of voters. The Herald in particular seemed to be competing with the CBC to say the most outrageous, inaccurate and vile things about Danielle Smith. In the CBC comments, the readers echo this hatred, so Smith's security team will need to be extra vigilant. The Herald comments section at least pointed out the most egregious stupidity of the reporters and columnists. I can’t help feeling this is what it must have been like reading the Soviet Pravda. God help us if we can’t reverse this media trend. Go Western Standard and True North!.Election highlights from the final week..May 19 Globe and Mail dissects Smith. G&M becomes the first media outlet to officially declare a UCP victory. Just kidding. Really just a summary of Don Braid’s columns for the last few months. But the conclusion for G&M readers is clear. Smith is a dangerous lunatic, but those stupid hick Albertans will vote her in anyway..May 21 UCP $5M on trails in K-country. The big announcements are over and the rest of the campaign will see the UCP repeating things that didn’t get proper initial coverage. Good strategy again..May 22 NDP Shannon Phillips. Actually uses the phrase “hidden agenda” to describe the UCP plan. No one on the UCP side needs to point out that contradicts the NDP’s sole focus on revealing the real agenda. Few voters are saying “You mean there's even more worst stuff hidden somewhere?” Even Braid got the message and actually focused on the substantive differences in tax policy..Disease X. More pandemic fears are raised again with the WHO saying we need a plan for the next big one. Bottom line is be afraid, be very afraid. Many people are saying “fool me once..." But this reminds the people who were against lockdowns to vote UCP. And it just may make those in favour of mandates feel a bit guilty over their demonizing of the unvaxxed..NDP change road signs. Their “What will she do next?” didn’t quite work as they hoped and were severely mocked on social media. They were replaced by “This election is about trust.” Again you have to wonder at the brain trust in the NDP. If they lose, doesn’t that mean Albertans trust them less?.Woke Calgary cancels fireworks. A petition is started and a respected First Nations commentator says “don’t blame us, we love Canada.” Council reverses the decision. But the whole affair should remind voters of the progressive mindset that will come with the NDP..May 23 Quito Maggi. Mainstreet Research president & CEO predicts an NDP victory. He says he has detailed riding polls that he will soon release. But we had Janet Brown saying a UCP decisive victory. We'll see which of these pollsters got it right. .May 24 Notley calls Smith an “extremist.” Presumably an evil right wing extremist, as opposed to a good environmental extremist like herself. The quotes are bonkers, way over the top. People are legitimately wondering, “Don’t you have anything new to say?” Mom used to say “If you don’t have anything nice to say...”.May 24 Artur Pawlowski. Takes the Smith hit pieces to their logical conclusions. But includes Notley as well. He appears to be quite unhinged and thus undermines his accusations against Smith..May 25 Notley says her first order would be be to repeal Sovereignty Act. This takes everyone by complete surprise — not! The supposed prediction it would create uncertainty and scare away business turned out to be completely false. So why get rid of an obvious tool to prevent future federal interference?.May 25 another grisly Calgary murder. Only one party articulated a strategy to deal with crime, addiction and homelessness. Advantage Smith..May 26 Think HQ Calgary poll. Puts the NDP ahead by a slim lead in Calgary which means a massive 200K shift since 2019. This ‘prediction’ will harden the resolve of UCP voters while recent NDP converts may be having second thoughts.
The UCP will handily win the election on Monday. And that is a good thing given the stakes are so high..But this isn’t just about Alberta — the rest of Canada is watching as well. Maybe it will end all the juvenile sniping and we can all move forward. That's a long shot perhaps, but it's worth hoping for..Pierre Poilievre says, “Canada is broken,” so vote for Danielle Smith. Many Canadians agree..Gerard Baker, writing in the Wall Street Journal summarizes progressive woke ideology this way: “We are losing our soul, our sense of purpose as a society, our identity as a civilization. We in the West are in the grip of an ideology that disowns our genius, denounces our success, disdains merit, elevates victimhood, embraces societal self-loathing and enforces it all in a web of exclusionary and authoritarian rules, large and small.”.If you like the tone, focus and policies of the federal Liberals and Calgary city hall then you will love the Alberta NDP..Will a Smith win help Poilievre? Yes, but his success is not guaranteed and Canada needs to move towards cooperative federalism, regardless. Right now, Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe is carrying the load alone. With Smith’s election he will have a partner..“Good fences make good neighbours,” and “Speak softly and carry a big stick” are real folksy old-time sayings but they should be the key Alberta principles in future federal/provincial relations..But first things first: Why should anyone think Smith will win?.First, Albertans will be out in force. Expect to see the highest participation rates ever with perhaps as high as 2.1M voters casting a ballot. So far, we are on track for 750K voters at advanced polls, about 50K more than in 2019. We have a lot of pent up political angst and we want to let off some steam. This is a COVID hangover and both sides will be voting in force. But let’s hope this voting will be cathartic and heal some of our divisions. We are a lot better than some of the petty antagonisms indicate..Second, this has become solely a clash of two parties, but it's not just about left and right. This is about two very different visions of what Alberta can be. This is about “progressive” values versus traditional ones. This is about the differences between rural thinking and city thinking. Make no mistake, Albertans will not be shy, they will tell us what they want..Smith’s defence of Alberta sovereignty has wiped out the separatists. The Wildrose Independence Party polling at 20% a year ago is not even on the radar..Barry Morishita’s softer middle-ish Alberta Party is also failing to attract any interest. The media’s sole focus on the evil Ms. Smith left no room for his platform to get any exposure or discussion. However, its 200K voters from 2019 will need to find a home. Those folks don’t like the NDP, or the UCP. So, the question for them is 'who do you hate the least?'.A 50/50 split means it will be a draw for the main contenders. On the other hand, I think it will be easier for this group to embrace Smith’s positive compassionate conservatism than Notley’s toxic tax the rich and dismantle the energy industry..Third, the polls motivate people, but are bad predictors of election results. The endless “too close to call” narrative actually favours the UCP over the NDP on voting day. UCP voters are likely more afraid of losing than NDP voters are happy about winning. So, UCP voters will be more motivated to get to the ballot booth, while recent NDP converts may be more complacent, hoping for newly enlightened voters just like them to carry the freight..Fourth, the poll numbers need to be adjusted by at least 10% in favour of the UCP because that's what the historical polling error has been. Right now, the aggregate of the last few polls has the UCP at 48% vs 45% for the NDP. But the momentum is clearly on the side of the UCP. Look for 53% to 42% as the final count..Philippe Fournier currently has 47 UCP seats to 40 NDP seats. He will give his final predictions after the last polls are released. Check his site on Sunday night..Fifth, the “send a message” voting pattern from 2015 won’t happen again. Those voters saw real consequences from their ballots and will select their true preferences this time. This means that if the undecideds (still more than 10%) and the soft UCPers can’t make the hard jump to the NDP then they'll hold their noses and vote for Smith..There are three possible scenarios to sum up the final tally. I've also provided a bellwether riding to indicate what scenario will likely play out..A slim UCP majority: 44-51 seats. Make no mistake, this would be a resounding defeat for the UCP and bad news for Albertans. The barrage of anti-UCP media will make governing for the next four years a truly thankless job. Like Kenney, Smith will be hounded out of the job in three years and Rebecca Schultz will try to take over as a new/old face. The only people to benefit will be those vying to take over the leadership of the NDP. My guess is Naheed Nenshi will be the winner, running on the campaign, “I can win Calgary.” And he will in 2027 and establish an NDP hegemony after that..Bellwether riding to watch: Calgary East — Peter Singh. If he's losing as the polls are released, then the UCP are headed for a slim majority or worse..A decisive UCP majority: 52-58 seats. Given the post-COVID hangover — and the vicious personal campaign against Smith — this would count as a huge victory. It will be a complete repudiation of the NDP platform and election strategy. It will allow Smith to prove her chops in governing Alberta and should lead to at least one more victory in 2027..This is my prediction: 55 UCP, 32 NDP. Bellwether riding to watch: Edmonton South West's Kaycee Madu. If he's winning there, then a decisive majority is possible for the UCP..An NDP smack down: > 58 UCP seats. Can the Blue Tornado strike twice? Stranger things have happened in Alberta. But this is not Klein’s “Martha and Henry” Alberta anymore. If Calgary voters can give you Jyoti Gondek then they are unlikely to revisit the Tornado twice. Bellwether riding to watch: Calgary Klein — Jeremy Nixon. If he can hold his seat then the UCP is in great shape..Before we review what happened in the final week of the campaign, I just want to say that this election is the worst I've ever seen in 50 years for attempting a partisan media manipulation of voters. The Herald in particular seemed to be competing with the CBC to say the most outrageous, inaccurate and vile things about Danielle Smith. In the CBC comments, the readers echo this hatred, so Smith's security team will need to be extra vigilant. The Herald comments section at least pointed out the most egregious stupidity of the reporters and columnists. I can’t help feeling this is what it must have been like reading the Soviet Pravda. God help us if we can’t reverse this media trend. Go Western Standard and True North!.Election highlights from the final week..May 19 Globe and Mail dissects Smith. G&M becomes the first media outlet to officially declare a UCP victory. Just kidding. Really just a summary of Don Braid’s columns for the last few months. But the conclusion for G&M readers is clear. Smith is a dangerous lunatic, but those stupid hick Albertans will vote her in anyway..May 21 UCP $5M on trails in K-country. The big announcements are over and the rest of the campaign will see the UCP repeating things that didn’t get proper initial coverage. Good strategy again..May 22 NDP Shannon Phillips. Actually uses the phrase “hidden agenda” to describe the UCP plan. No one on the UCP side needs to point out that contradicts the NDP’s sole focus on revealing the real agenda. Few voters are saying “You mean there's even more worst stuff hidden somewhere?” Even Braid got the message and actually focused on the substantive differences in tax policy..Disease X. More pandemic fears are raised again with the WHO saying we need a plan for the next big one. Bottom line is be afraid, be very afraid. Many people are saying “fool me once..." But this reminds the people who were against lockdowns to vote UCP. And it just may make those in favour of mandates feel a bit guilty over their demonizing of the unvaxxed..NDP change road signs. Their “What will she do next?” didn’t quite work as they hoped and were severely mocked on social media. They were replaced by “This election is about trust.” Again you have to wonder at the brain trust in the NDP. If they lose, doesn’t that mean Albertans trust them less?.Woke Calgary cancels fireworks. A petition is started and a respected First Nations commentator says “don’t blame us, we love Canada.” Council reverses the decision. But the whole affair should remind voters of the progressive mindset that will come with the NDP..May 23 Quito Maggi. Mainstreet Research president & CEO predicts an NDP victory. He says he has detailed riding polls that he will soon release. But we had Janet Brown saying a UCP decisive victory. We'll see which of these pollsters got it right. .May 24 Notley calls Smith an “extremist.” Presumably an evil right wing extremist, as opposed to a good environmental extremist like herself. The quotes are bonkers, way over the top. People are legitimately wondering, “Don’t you have anything new to say?” Mom used to say “If you don’t have anything nice to say...”.May 24 Artur Pawlowski. Takes the Smith hit pieces to their logical conclusions. But includes Notley as well. He appears to be quite unhinged and thus undermines his accusations against Smith..May 25 Notley says her first order would be be to repeal Sovereignty Act. This takes everyone by complete surprise — not! The supposed prediction it would create uncertainty and scare away business turned out to be completely false. So why get rid of an obvious tool to prevent future federal interference?.May 25 another grisly Calgary murder. Only one party articulated a strategy to deal with crime, addiction and homelessness. Advantage Smith..May 26 Think HQ Calgary poll. Puts the NDP ahead by a slim lead in Calgary which means a massive 200K shift since 2019. This ‘prediction’ will harden the resolve of UCP voters while recent NDP converts may be having second thoughts.
