MARRIOTT: Today, look for a Bloc win in Montreal and the Conservatives in Winnipeg

William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.The much awaited non-confidence motion that Pierre Poilievre will introduce this week will — sadly — not result in a fall election. It will be great drama but not have any legs. Canadians, who are clearly ready for an election, will vent their anger where they can but in the end even more will just become disillusioned in our political institutions.Mostly angry voters will show up at today’s by-elections in Montreal and Winnipeg. They will dump the Liberals to the low teens even in Montreal. This anger will spill over to the NDP as people have finally figured out how the Liberals have managed to survive this long. Look for a Bloc win in Montreal and the Conservatives in Winnipeg. Political commentators will be shocked and talk about whether this means the Liberals are finally finished. Ordinary Canadians will say “Duh… what did you expect?”Which brings us to the political arithmetic for both the Bloc Québécois and NDP in a non-confidence vote. Both parties have to vote with Poilievre to trigger an election. Both parties are asking themselves: will we be better off in twelve months or six weeks?For the NDP, they have seen the writing on the wall. Poilievre is doing to Jagmeet Singh what he did to Justin Trudeau. Slowly but surely he is plugging away at “Sell-out Singh” and he is getting traction. The NDP have been sliding in the polls since the beginning of the year. While the decline is only a few percentage points it is a definite trend and amounts to a substantive 20% decline in support. There seems to be an absolute polling floor which has been reached for the Liberals at about 25%, but the NDP are quickly approaching theirs at 15%. They know it could get even worse over the next year so they want an election now. They will support Poilievre’s motion. However, that is not enough the Bloc must vote with Poilievre.The Bloc shakes out a little differently. The ‘national’ polling numbers make no sense as the Bloc is a regional separatist party. Nonetheless, they are benefitting in Quebec from the Liberal implosion while Poilievre is getting very little uplift. This will change in the actual election as Quebecers don’t like to be left out of the national governing party. Conservative strongholds in Quebec from the Mulroney and Harper days will once again become in fashion. So again, the Bloc likely sees themselves weaker in 12 months than they are now. But for them, this means taking advantage of their current situation. They are now in the driver seat and can hold Trudeau hostage.Have they a list of demands that he must deliver? Very likely. And they have also likely had the discussions with him and come to some agreement on what the Liberals will support and when they will deliver. And in exchange they will vote against any non-confidence motion and keep Trudeau in power.This, then, is also part of the deal Trudeau has struck with his fragile caucus. He will stay as leader in exchange for further advancing the broader Liberal agenda and strengthening Quebec, but will resign if he loses the next election. The Liberals rather than the Bloc will try to take credit for the concessions to Quebec in the hope of improving their fortunes there. But, although they would like to, the Liberals are in no position to pull-off a coup like the US Democrats did in dumping President Biden. This is because they can’t just install a new leader like the Democrats did. They must have have a leadership contest. They certainly won’t do it now with the prospect of an election at the next non-confidence vote.If you are appalled by this situation you must be new to Canada. It has always been thus and likely always will be. Remember the electoral reform that was part of Trudeau’s first “Sunny Days” campaign? It should still have a priority in Poilievre’s first government. For example, using 2021 census numbers Alberta has a population of 4.3 million people and 34 federal seats. Whereas Quebec has 6.5 million people and 78 seats. If Alberta had electoral parity with Quebec it would mean an additional 18 Conservative seats. Unfair you say? Not in Canada.If Alberta had electoral parity with the Maritimes it would mean an additional 23 Conservative seats. That is not a typo. Similar realignments across the country would likely mean there would never be a Liberal government again. We can only hope.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.