Someone will no doubt be writing a book about all the things Smith did right to eventually win this election including but not limited to; consolidating the rural vote, eliminating the separatists, unifying the party, building a solid platform, displaying competency on difficult files, use of social media, out-campaigning the NDP, defending against petty smears, handling the hostile media, etc..But I just want to focus on just one thing that I think was the tipping point for Calgarians — the NDP smear campaign that ultimately failed..In Calgary at least, the ballot question boiled down to this; Smith or Notley?.Smith tried to make the election about the important issues facing Alberta but Notley wouldn’t have it. No, the sole election issue for Rachel Notley was Danielle Smith’s defective moral character and mental instability. Except Notley herself doesn’t really believe in either of them..Going negative in a political campaign is a time honoured and effective tactic. The NDP team no doubt evaluated numerous election strategies. But in the end they bet the entire election on making it personal. ‘Lend’ me your vote because the other leader is crazy. One single message hammered endlessly. In the end this strategy was Notley’s decision. And it was her job to be a credible medium through which to express that message. She failed primarily because she doesn’t believe it herself..The big tells were in the leaders debate. In 2015 Notley had a short edgy haircut and wore a white suit. She stood toe to toe trading punches with Jim Prentice and convincingly defended her platform. No nervous ticks, no hair flips. This was stuff that she truly believed and felt would be for the benefit of Albertans. Fast forward to 2023. She has the soft wavy long hair, just like Smith but parted on the left. She wears a Tory blue suit. But she is nervous with noticeable ticks and hair flips. At one point when she thinks the camera is off she looks at her watch. When she has to deliver the kill shot she hesitates “ Um.....” She has either forgotten the rehearsed line or she is having trouble saying something she doesn’t believe. The hardest thing to fake is authenticity. The viewers saw it and were not impressed. That was the turning point for Calgarians..Notley’s true assessment of Smith is like most others who examine her as part of their professional or academic interests. Smith is easily the most engaging and brilliant politician to emerge in modern Canadian politics. She truly believes what she is talking about. Like an iceberg most of her thinking remains hidden with only a smattering of hints as to what lies beneath. That some of those hints contain hyperbole or lack the proper context may render them confusing or make them open to misinterpretation. But it doesn’t show evidence of malevolence or unredeemable character flaws. Calgarians know Danielle Smith as they followed her down talk show rabbit-holes interesting and esoteric. They know her basic character and they didn’t believe what Rachel Notley was trying to sell..Calgarians know that she came back from political oblivion and won the hearts and minds of the UCP membership. She out-campaigned her leadership rivals not once criticizing them but rather praising everything they had to offer the party. She took a party that at its lowest was polling below 30% to the NDP’s 45%, and won an election 58% to 44%. Name one other politician who has ever done that. Notley knew the potential that Smith had and in desperation decided to go low and try the full-on mud wrestle..The success of the smear campaign depends also upon selling the conspiracy theory as well. As such, it is targeted to the low information voter (LIV). The LIV doesn’t follow politics or immerse themselves into political ideology but still forms impressions and opinions based on what they see or hear. They may not necessarily understand the intricacies of the Westminster form of government (to the shame of our education system and our immigration requirements) but they still may vote..The LIV needed to believe that Danielle Smith would somehow become the dictator of Alberta. They need to believe that she will become the Hugo Chavez of Alberta, hijacking the legislature, media, the judiciary and the police. They need to believe that Smith could turn Alberta into Venezuela. The NDP ads showing Smith as some sort of Darth Vader character even slightly changing her voice (wheeze ...Luke..., forget Vader. I, Danielle Smith, ...wheez..., am your real father....). At first were these were just annoying but then they became hilarious. But some people bought the smear and voted accordingly..The conspiracy theory also requires us to believe that Smith has no accountability to her Cabinet or to her caucus. The LIV may not understand the legislated powers of the Cabinet or think that a caucus is pretty purple flower that is just now starting to bloom on the prairies. But that doesn’t mean that fear doesn’t work. Maybe just maybe Smith can steal my pension and leave me with nothing. (After all “maybe just maybe I will catch COVID and die”, drove politicians to do things they never envisaged. Even Justin Trudeau rejected mandates early in the COVID crisis.) The fact of the matter is that if Smith’s government does some really stupid things (as Notley’s government did in 2015-2019) then we can vote them out in 2027..Just ask yourself: could these two politicians have run the reverse campaigns in this election? Could Notley have articulated a social democratic (nice way of saying socialist) platform and a set of policies that flows from that to the Alberta context? Sure, she has the brain power and the ability to articulate these ideas. But she didn’t do it simply because they wouldn’t fly. The last ditch “Hail Mary” option was the smear, so that’s what they did. But even Notley really didn’t believe in it..Could Smith have ran on the equivalent of the Notley smear? I would say no because she respected Notley too much. Plus, Smith will always be engaged by the big ideas and the big potentials and the big movements. To reduce her campaign to petty personal smears based on ancient out of context statements would have been anathema to her. She wouldn’t have even been able to form the words in front of the mic. Turns out Notley couldn’t do it convincingly either..Rachel Notley was one of Canada’s most respected politicians. Most people admired her integrity and her presence. Even if you didn’t agree with her policies, you usually admired her passion. Her heart was in the right place. But not anymore. The character of two politicians was on display and one was found wanting. I like the results of the election but can’t help thinking it is a sad day for Alberta..Some final observations on the media these last few days..May 27 Lisa Young column CBC. Provides scenarios post election. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery so I guess I should be happy that her views on what happens in a narrow UCP victory are pretty much the same as mine. However “Looking at the polls and seat projections in the final week, the more likely outcome is a UCP win, either a narrow one (winning 46 to 50 seats), or a slightly less narrow one, with more than 50 seats.” She then completely ignores what happens if the UCP makes a decisive win and focuses on an NDP win or a split house. And she gets paid to do this stuff..May 26 Janet Brown poll CBC. She presented new numbers but with a bit of a different methodology than the ones “leaked” via Don Braid on May 15. This time Calgary was the greater Calgary CMA which includes Airdrie etc. Even with this dilution of UCP in Calgary proper her new numbers were 51 UCP, 36 NDP. At the end of the article both she and Duane Bratt said the NDP smear campaign just didn’t work..May 25 CBC Post Truth Election. This is great stuff essentially saying that Albertans are ignorant misguided hicks who hate the “truth” and vote for extremists. Nice. Go Poilievre. Defund the CBC —– please. Couple of choice quotes. “Like a prairie grass fire, a bonfire of resentment and anger burns at the centre of conservative politics in Alberta. Smith often stokes worries about Alberta's status in Confederation to her own advantage.” Smith is compared to Trump, particularly his groping. Of course if Smith is groping men we don’t hear any of them complaining about it. “While politicians uncomplicated by feelings of guilt appear able to weather even the nastiest of political storms, the enduring — and worrying — effect comes in the lasting stain it makes on our wider politics and the trustworthiness of all politicians.” “Voters, worry some political scientists, come to distrust the entire democratic process, seeing it as rigged. This, in turn, makes people more open to dirty politics to counter their opponents.”.No mention of Notley’s dirty smear campaign. “As well, Doug Griffiths — a long time Progressive Conservative who served in Premier Ed Stelmach's government — also is voting NDP in his Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville riding, stressing that the UCP under Smith "are conspiratorial," "feeding anger," and "anti-science, anti-truth, anti-fact." He only failed to mention misogynist and homophobic. Name calling has now become the highest form of political debate. By the way, Doug who? Ed who?.May 29 Busiest advanced polls. People were getting out to vote. Five of the ten busiest advanced polls in Alberta were in ridings generally considered to be “swing”. As most of the voters there were more mature (like me) it was seen as a good sign for the incumbent UCP. Three went to the NDP and 2 to UCP..Calgary Herald campaign. I have complained before about this not so overt attempt at propaganda. But maybe it is just because they don’t like my candidate that they seem biased to me. I was looking forward to Don Braid’s final column because I thought for sure this would have the juiciest dirt on Smith. I was also hoping that the Herald editorial board would provide a good old fashioned recommendation and provide their reason for doing so..But no such luck. Instead Braid reassured us that Smith reassured him there will be no funny voting business even though we are using scanning machines to count the advanced poll votes. The regular votes will be counted by real people with real eyes and real scrutineers..What struck me as I was lining up to vote at the advanced polls is how old the people were, and not only that, they probably all had print subscriptions for the Herald. So these are the people like me who might have detected a little less than fair play in the NDP approach and the Herald’s reporting. So the Herald’s propaganda may have backfired by galvanizing the very folks that still value democracy. The irony of it.
