Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.In the wee small hours of January 3, Canada’s economic future sustained a serious blow.It was at that time that American law enforcement, supported by the US Army’s Delta Force, apprehended the brutal Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, enforcing a years-old indictment for narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and related offenses.It was a stunning display of America’s tactical prowess, with American choppers easily evading Maduro’s Russian-made layered air defense network, and American personnel suffering no casualties, despite heavy engagement with the Cuban troops who were guarding him..HAUBRICH: Saskatchewanians want Moe to keep province carbon tax-free.The fact that they were Cuban troops is worth noting — Maduro didn’t trust his countrymen to fight for their “president.”And I use that title loosely, because the official position of Canada — along with every sane observer — is that Maduro stole the 2024 election, as he had the one before it. Last January, Canada formally recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the president-elect, citing overwhelming evidence that he had received the most votes.Western condemnation of Maduro was so universal that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year, which she dedicated to "the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause.”.You’d have to have a heart of stone not to rejoice with the Venezuelan people celebrating their liberation from Maduro, or avoid laughing at the leftists fulminating at Trump’s “unprecedented” incursion into a sovereign Latin American nation. “Unprecedented,” except for the precedents set by Presidents Clinton, Bush Sr., Reagan, Wilson, Taft, and Teddy Roosevelt.But this does put Canada in quite a pickle.That’s because the heavy, sour crude oil Venezuela has in massive quantities is broadly similar to that which we produce. .GOLDBERG: Carney must be prepared to listen to changes the US wants ahead of CUSMA talks .America’s complex Gulf Coast refineries were specifically built in the twentieth century to process dense, high-sulfur oil from Latin America. But when Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, rose to power and seized control of Venezuela’s oil industry, directly stealing from foreign companies like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, the US turned to Canada to fill in the gaps. In a few short years, major pipelines which had originally transported crude oil northward from the Gulf Coast to the American interior, were reversed to bring Canadian crude southward from Alberta's oil sands to Gulf Coast refineries.Venezuela’s pain was our gain..With Chávez, and later Maduro, in charge, oil production fell from an annual average of 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to about 1 million barrels per day in 2025.Which means that, with Maduro out of power, the Venezuelan oil industry has a lot of room for growth. In fact, Donald Trump’s claim that the US will “run” Venezuela for the time being (through Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, at least until new elections can be organized), can be read as an assurance to international firms that they need not be afraid to do business in Venezuela, that their investments will be protected.Ramping up production by a few million barrels per day isn’t going to happen overnight. But it isn’t going to take 10 or 15 years either, despite what some talking heads are saying..GIESBRECHT: 2026 is the ‘Year of the Fire Horse’.Venezuela will soon be a major competitor for Canada, and a very attractive investment opportunity for foreign companies.Think about it. If you were running an oil company, and you had to decide between pumping big bucks into Canada or Venezuela, which would you choose? One saddles its all-important resource sector down with onerous regulations and legislation like Bill C-69, the “no new pipelines act;” Bill C-48, the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act; or Bill C-59, which bans businesses from promoting the environmental positives of their work if it doesn’t meet a government-approved standard. It has legally committed itself to achieving net-zero by 2050, which puts the long-term future of oil and gas in doubt..The other has lived through the consequences of the mismanagement of its God-given natural resources. It is desperate to experience the kind of growth that, for instance, Argentina has experienced since Javier Milei began freeing up its economy.To plenty of investors, this will look like an opportunity to get in on the ground floor. And that will rapidly have an impact on operations in this country. Remember that the Carney/Smith MOU pipeline — that one single pipeline that we just got the government to conditionally agree to, at enormous cost — won’t get built without private sector investment, which has been slow to materialize.Gee, I wonder why..GWYN MORGAN: End supply management — for the sake of Canadian consumers.Now, I don’t think this situation is entirely hopeless. Ottawa could use this period, while the political situation in Venezuela is still getting sorted, to change course, streamlining project approvals, easing regulatory burdens, and signaling to investors that Canada is open for business. We could make a case to our biggest customer — the United States currently receives about 95% of our crude oil exports — that Canada is the key to North American energy security. We could double down on developing trading relationships in Asia and Europe, which would mean increasing pipeline capacity and allowing tankers to bring our product to market. That way, we're not left vulnerable when Venezuelan oil inevitably starts eroding our share of Gulf Coast refineries.Maybe a change that big is a pipe dream. But we find ourselves in a competition that wasn’t even on our radar one week ago. If we don’t do something soon, Venezuela's new beginning will mark the beginning of our end.Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.
