The question of provincial independence must be brought to a referendum in Alberta. Pro-independence groups have been working for years in preparation for a referendum. Now, anti-independence activists led by disgraced former Redford government MLA Thomas Lukaszuk have submitted an official petition with over 400,000 signatures demanding a referendum on independence.With people on both sides of the issue calling for a referendum, it only makes sense to schedule one for 2026. It's the will of the people. Lukaszuk is now claiming he didn’t really want to invoke a referendum with his petitioning. Either he is lying, or he didn’t actually read the application he submitted to begin the petitioning process. It expressly calls for a referendum on Alberta’s status within Canada. It almost seems as if his efforts were a data mining exercise for a future political move. Whatever the motivation may be, the referendum ball is now rolling..BARCLAY: From Nobel to national decline — The unravelling of Obama’s America.While Lukaszuk’s petition calls for a referendum, it comes from the perspective of asking people to vote for the status quo. It’s also not a constitutional application, so no matter which way people vote in the referendum, as he phrases it, nothing will change. If a referendum is held where nothing could possibly change no matter how people vote, it isn’t a referendum. It’s a tax-funded opinion poll.The Alberta government can remain true to the demands of referendum proponents by changing the wording of the question so it becomes a true referendum where a yes vote would lead to independence for Alberta under the Clarity Act. It’s not tossing out Lukaszuk’s efforts. It’s giving him what he ostensibly wanted to but in a different framing and where a positive vote would lead to independence.Scheduling a referendum will serve the UCP government well too. The deadline is fast approaching for the demands Premier Smith made of the Carney government. So far, he has completely ignored them, and there are few indications he will make any significant policy changes before the Grey Cup. He said he would kill the emissions cap but added a bunch of caveats to the policy. If Smith lets Carney laugh in the face of her demands, her government will be rendered impotent when it comes to federal incursions and the blockage of Alberta’s industries. If she scheduled an independence referendum the day after the Grey Cup, people across the country would sit up and take notice..Support for independence in Alberta may not have hit a majority level across the province yet, but the independence faction within the UCP is significant. Those independence advocates are getting impatient and will be turning their guns toward the UCP if they don’t see some action when it comes to dealing with a federation that treats Alberta poorly. The UCP AGM is approaching at the end of November, and there are movements afoot to try and turn the UCP into an overtly sovereigntist party. This would be disastrous to the UCP. The best way Smith can take the pressure off from within her party is to set an independence referendum date for mid-2026. Independence advocates will turn their focus to campaigning for the referendum, and the premier can say she is letting democracy run its course.It will be a tough path to win an independence referendum with a clear majority wanting Alberta to leave the federation. The momentum of public opinion is on the side of independence advocates, though. Depending on the actions of the federal government and on how effective an independence campaign is, the tide could turn..OLDCORN: Judges who ban poppies have forgotten what they stand for.Even if only 40% of Albertans chose the independence option in a referendum, it would not be a wasted effort. The country would be put on notice that Alberta is moving toward the tipping point of a successful independence vote and that changes must be made if a winning referendum vote is to be avoided in a few years.A referendum campaign will put the federation and Alberta’s role within it into the news scroll for at least a solid six months. Discussions of provincial jurisdiction and federal policies harming the province will dominate punditry, and people could begin to understand that the status quo isn’t an option.There is little sense forcing groups to petition further to invoke a referendum on Alberta’s independence. Lukaszuk got that job done. Now let’s put it in the hands of the electorate but with better phrasing and with a binding outcome. Let 2026 be the year of the referendum.
