MORGAN: Alberta's referendum is very real

I know. Trust me, I know.The referendum question being posed to Albertans on October 19 is a weak, dump of word salad.Independence supporters were led down a garden path with what was thought to be a legitimate form of invoking a referendum through a petition, only to have the fruits of all that work stolen from them by a Liberal-appointed judge.The question now being placed on the ballot is non-binding and is only a question seeking a mandate to ask another question.Premier Smith has gone on a federalist campaign as vociferous as the one Jason Kenney has been on. And it's as laden with misinformation as she claims the transition costs of independence would peak at $400 billion.It feels like all the cards are against the independence movement because it’s true. The system and those within it are pulling out all the stops to keep Albertans from having the choice of independence.So why should independence supporters carry on with the campaign in the face of such opposition? Why should the campaign for this fall’s flaccid question be taken seriously by independence supporters? .It’s because opponents to independence are taking it seriously.Federalists and Laurentians see the real risk of the referendum being held, and they are pulling out all the stops to fight it. Even Jean Chrétien was drawn out of his crypt to speak in opposition to Alberta’s independence, while Pierre Poilievre has decided to spend the summer in Alberta trying to convince Albertans why the status quo is fine. Columnists and premiers are fighting among each other for the microphone to deride independence supporters in Alberta and to campaign against choice.The establishment knows the referendum presents a threat to its comfortable position. Laurentian elites may be arrogant and parasitic, but they aren’t stupid. They saw what happened with Brexit and know that when the electorate is given a choice in a matter, they often will choose to oppose existing institutions.Some independence groups and individuals have taken their foot off the gas. They are tired and dejected after having four months of petitioning efforts trampled on by the courts. It’s understandable. They have to dust themselves off and get back up, though.A strong vote for option two on question ten in the election keeps the movement alive. A strong vote for option one on the question will put the debate on the shelf for another decade. Albertans can’t allow federalists to put this issue to bed.The months of petitioning in blizzards and holding meetings in town halls on dark winter nights were not wasted. It doesn’t matter if the 301,000 signatures weren’t formally counted by Elections Alberta. People with sense know they were genuine and that they represent a groundswell of support for a real referendum on independence.The months of petitioning helped solidify the movement. Thousands of volunteers networked, bonded, and reached hundreds of thousands of Albertans. They built the foundation of what will be the campaign to win the referendum this fall. The petitioning phase was a warm-up and trial run for the bigger campaign.The independence movement must also be a little honest with itself. While the core of dedicated independence supporters within Alberta has never measured so consistently strong as it has, the number also hasn’t grown over the last 6 months. The mushy middle of undecided voters has remained the same, and those fiercely opposed to the concept will never budge. That’s because the campaign to date has been focused on getting signatures more than selling the concept. .Now the path of the campaign becomes clearer. People must be convinced to choose option two, and to be frank, it will be an easier sell than the binding yes/no question that petitioners tried to get on the ballot. With a non-binding option, the independence side can pivot a little to gather those who want to send Ottawa a message rather than start the full process of independence. If those people can be moved, a strong option to victory can be won. With that extra time having been bought, independence advocates can continue to work toward a true independence referendum and to convert those soft supporters into full “Yes” voters in the future.Never has there been so much open debate about Alberta’s place in the federation. The discussion will be raging until October 19, and if the independence side leaves the playing field to their opponents, they will lose all momentum.The path to independence will never be a simple or straight one. But giving up is not an option. The changing of the question for the referendum hasn’t erased the path; it has only added a curve. The independence movement must navigate the curve and keep moving toward the goal. Quitting isn’t an option, and it isn’t the Alberta way.

MORGAN: Alberta's referendum is very real

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