Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills is arguably the constituency with the strongest support for Western independence in Canada. In 1982, it became the first, and last constituency to elect an overt independence candidate when they selected Gord Kesler as an MLA in a byelection. It is a rural constituency with a strong, conservative base. If there is anywhere that an independence candidate may do well in Western Canada it is in that constituency. In a byelection this week, Alberta Republican Party leader Cam Davies was solidly trounced in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills garnering an embarrassing 17.7% support. Even the NDP beat them.The movement for Western independence has been enjoying a surge of support since Eastern Canada rewarded the Liberals with a larger government last April. Polls indicated over 30% of Albertans may be considering a vote for independence if they could do so in a referendum. The lacklustre electoral showing from the Republican Party of Alberta just dumped a cold bucket of water on the independence movement, just as the political doldrums of summer are about to hit.With general support for independence hovering at 30% in the province, it is likely the figure sits closer to the 50% or more range in a constituency like Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. Being a byelection allowed independence supporters to send a message by voting for an independence candidate without risking unseating the government. It truly was the best electoral opportunity for an independence candidate seen in an Alberta election since the 1980s..So why did the Republican Party fare so poorly in the byelection?There are a few reasons. To begin with, the party named itself the Republican Party. Why embrace a distinctively American brand in an Albertan party? Independence supporters want to celebrate and build Alberta and its identity. They aren’t looking to dissolve into a larger one south of the border.The Republican moniker divides an already fragile support base. Some independence supporters like the idea of joining the United States while some have no use for it. That prevented independence supporters from coalescing around the one party..The party’s self-appointed leader Cam Davies has a chequered past in Alberta politics. He was neck deep in the now-infamous “Kamikaze” leadership campaign debacle when Jason Kenney won the UCP leadership. Davies threw others involved in the affair under the bus and found himself fined by Elections Alberta for misdeeds. His history doesn’t exactly exude trustworthiness and his personal presentation has been off-putting for many people. He just doesn’t rub them the right way.The campaign appeared to focus more on a personal vendetta against Danielle Smith and the UCP rather than the merits of Alberta independence. Many independence supporters don’t have a problem with Smith and weren’t drawn in by the constant sniping from the Republicans..The party itself was transformed from the moribund Buffalo Party only a few months ago yet somehow garnered an astonishing amount of funds in a short time. That sets off alarm bells for many people and it will be interesting to see how the financials withstand the inevitable audits to come.In having no established base of support but having an oddly full bank account, the Republican Party spent heavily on advertising and had what appeared to be paid groups of doorknockers dropped into constituencies rather than organic volunteers like other parties have. This didn’t resonate well with voters at the doors and the election results proved that out..The party also has branded itself in Liberal-red and their campaign signs were almost indistinguishable at a glance from the federal Liberal signs seen in the campaign only a few months ago. Embracing the brand appearance of the most loathed party in the province demonstrates either utter strategic ineptitude or a penchant for electoral self-destruction. The campaign really was so bad, it made people wonder if it wasn’t being thrown on purpose.The party had also gotten hold of phone number and email lists, and they had been autodialing the cellphones of Albertans. An annoyance tactic that couldn’t have helped their fortunes.In the two Edmonton byelections being held, there was no expectation the Republicans would do well, but they still managed to underwhelm with 3.6% support in one and a ghastly 0.7% in another. The only term to describe that sort of electoral showing despite all the spending is pathetic..Voters didn’t reject the concept of independence in the byelections. They rejected Cam Davies and his weird Republican party. Unfortunately, federalists are using the defeat of Davies as a barometer of Albertan support for independence. Whether independence supporters like it or not, Davies became the face of the movement for a short time and he served it poorly.With an independence referendum likely to be held within a year, independence supporters just had a tough job made even tougher by the Alberta Republicans.Hopefully though, a lesson was learned. With a referendum campaign, a party isn’t needed. As we saw with Davies’s efforts, parties actually make things worse.Independence supporters must coalesce around advocacy groups and act individually to build the base for a winning referendum vote. They can’t afford to waste time and money on independence parties that only divide the movement and fail.Perhaps the Republicans provided an example of the futility of the party approach early enough to have taught the lesson in time to recover from it. Now let’s just hope they go away so the real independence movement can get back to work.
