Pierre Poilievre desperately needs some sort of victory, and the recent round of Canadian by-elections didn’t garner him one. Nobody really expected the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) to make gains in the races, but they could have hoped to remain competitive in the one seat they had held in Quebec. Alas, not only did they lose the seat, but they were trounced. The CPC candidate in Chicoutimi — Le Fjord finished a distant third with under 13% of the vote.In the other two by-elections, the CPC fared no better.In the Toronto riding of Beaches-East York, Liberal support dropped by 12%. Clearly, citizens weren’t enamoured with Carney’s leadership, though the Liberals still pulled a win from the by-election. What’s more telling, though, is that the CPC also dropped in support from the last election by 8%. Discontented voters moved to the NDP, which gained 19% support in the riding.The Liberals comfortably held the BC riding of North Vancouver-Capilano, while the CPC lost 4.5% support from the previous election.By-elections present a snapshot of where the parties stand between general elections, and the picture presented today is ugly for the CPC.Usually, by-elections can present an opportunity for opposition parties to make a mark and present themselves as a government in waiting. Voters can be convinced to send a message to the government if they are discontent with it. In the case of the three votes held this week, though, the voters chose to send the message to the CPC..Poilievre has been embattled as the sharks have been circling under him for months. Ontario political operatives have been working to destabilize him, and it’s not hard to see Doug Ford’s eyes lighting up when looking at the federal scenario. Ford’s provincial ship is wavering, but he hopes he can make the leap to a federal role before going down with it, and some politicos are trying to create the scenario where that can happen.Now Poilievre’s leadership is in dire risk. Recent cross-country polling indicates the Liberal lead over the CPC is as high as 17%, and a very real risk is now presenting itself of Carney calling a snap election. Carney managed to cobble a majority government together through coaxing opportunistic MPs to his side of the House, but the majority is slim and populated with less-than-loyal members. If Carney could grab a large majority in a snap general election, he won’t need to negotiate or compromise with his own caucus any longer and can comfortably plan for at least four more years in office. He is surely being sorely tempted now.The case for keeping Poilievre has always been that the coalition is still his, that Carney’s honeymoon would fade, and that a trade war would eventually punish the incumbent. Monday night cut against every part of that case. The incumbent is not fading in the places that decide governments, and the trade war has not made Poilievre look like the safer pair of hands.Kory Teneycke called the night a beatdown and said the leadership is under siege. He can almost be seen visibly salivating as he hopes to employ himself to usher in a replacement for Poilievre.No one serious should claim three by-elections prove Poilievre cannot win a general election in 2029. Turnout was weak, and the sample was small. Leaders have recovered from worse mid-parliament slumps. Poilievre has a hell of a hill to climb now, though, and time will be limited for him as contenders for his job work behind the scenes to cut his legs out from under him.Poilievre and his supporters need some kind of event allowing them to show upward momentum, and few are on the horizon. He can’t count on Liberal errors or scandals to bring down the government. The CPC must do something on its own, and it’s hard to say what that may be. Six more by-elections are looming, but they can spell the final nail in the coffin for Poilievre’s leadership just as much as they could provide a lifeline. If the CPC could even have held the line in the by-elections, they could demonstrate a path to forming the government in the next election. Instead, they are continuing to sink, and Poilievre is running out of options.
