For most in the West, Alberta especially, the shift in support towards independence wasn’t unexpected. The atmosphere of unrest has been growing for years and all hope for relief from a hostile federal government was dashed when Eastern Canada rewarded the Liberals with a larger government in the federal election.If ten years of the inept and belligerent Trudeau Liberals aren’t enough for Eastern Canada to consider making changes, what will it take?Western Canadians, particularly in Alberta, are no longer willing to wait for the dominant Eastern electorate to wake up. An appetite for Alberta independence has exploded on the scene, and polls are reflecting it..Polling from Angus Reid found support for independence reaching 37% in Alberta and 35% in Saskatchewan. Over 51% of people feel a referendum should be held on the issue, though there isn’t majority support for independence… yet. While an Alberta breakaway isn’t immediately on the horizon, support for independence is stronger than it has been since the ghastly National Energy Program was imposed on Alberta by Pierre Trudeau in the 1980s.A recent poll from Kolosowski Strategies is pegging support for Alberta independence reaching as high as 46%. Even if that poll is an outlier, it’s clear that support for independence is nearing the 40% range. That’s still well short of what would be required to win in a referendum for independence, but it is a base of support representing millions of Albertans and it can grow.Premier Danielle Smith is riding a tiger in trying to balance between standing up for Alberta's constitutional rights while not endorsing outright independence. Polling among UCP supporters indicates 65% of them support independence but if Smith were to take a pro-independence stance, she would risk tearing her party apart with such a divisive issue. .Smith’s middle-ground approach has been to empower citizens to initiate a referendum on independence should they meet the now realistic petitioning requirements for citizens’ initiatives. She has carefully avoided speaking in support of full Alberta independence, while saying she will always respect the will of the electorate.Polling conducted by Janet Brown of Trend Research on behalf of the Alberta government has found that support among Albertans for exiting the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and forming an Alberta Pension Plan has leapt from 23% last summer to 55% today. Albertans are ready to start chipping away at ties to the federal government, and the pension plan is a big one. If Alberta leaves the CPP, the rest of the country will quickly feel the pain since Alberta contributes upward of $5 billion more per year into the plan than it receives in benefits. Perhaps such a move would serve as a wakeup call for Eastern Canada. But will it be too little too late?It's almost certain a referendum on Alberta independence will be held within a year. While pompous, Laurentian pundits have been dismissing the independence movement in the West, they would be well served to take it seriously. With close to a year to organize and campaign, independence supporters could bring independence support to the tipping point of success. Brexit began with a smaller base of support than Alberta independence currently has and the elitist attitudes of the British establishment contributed to the success of the Brexit vote. If Canada's Laurentian elite continues to patronizingly brush off Western Canadian concerns, they will only further inflame the prairie fire of independence..Polls indicated the Liberal party was going to be electorally obliterated a few months ago. When the Liberals bounced back during the federal election campaign, Conservative supporters tried to dismiss them. The pollsters were proven correct on election night proving both that public sentiment can change quickly and that pollsters often have a finger on the pulse of opinion.More than one referendum may be held next spring. One could be held on exiting the CPP at the same time as one is being held to exit the federation. Albertans may choose to just support the pension exit as an act of Alberta defiance of Ottawa, or they may choose to support both referendum proposals. One thing that’s clear is that the citizens aren’t prepared to accept the status quo any longer.While independence supporters must organize, find leadership and build cohesive base of support if they want to win a referendum, much of the campaign is out of their hands. It will be up to the Mark Carney government and the Laurentian establishment to determine if support for Western independence will be a flash in the pan or if it will lead to the dissolution of the federation. Continued antagonization of the West along with policies strangling economic development, will push an increasing number of citizens over the edge and lead to a positive vote for independence.It’s easy to dismiss polls you don’t like. But can be perilous to do so.
