Advance voting in Alberta’s referendum has begun, and Albertans can send Ottawa their strongest message yet by choosing Option 2 on Question 10.Two motivations drive people to choose Option 2, and neither is wrong. Dedicated supporters of full Alberta independence from the federation, like me, are choosing Option 2 as a step toward creating an independent country of Alberta. Many others are choosing Option 2 to send a final warning shot to Ottawa that, if the status quo doesn’t change, they will be seeking independence as well.Defenders of maintaining the status quo understand that a growing number of citizens are considering Option 2 as a means of sending a message or garnering leverage from Ottawa. Jason Kenney has been almost hysterical in trying to make the case that a vote for Option 2 would lead to a catastrophic outcome for Alberta. Others, like Deborah Yedlin of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, claimed that the process of holding a referendum alone would cause damage to Alberta. That’s the same Deborah Yedlin who said that vaccine passports were good for local restaurants.Economically, Alberta is growing. The referendum campaign has been formally active for almost five months, and none of the predicted doom and gloom has come. People aren’t fleeing. In fact, within Canada, people are moving to Alberta at a faster rate than to any other province. Alberta’s reported job growth was in the tens of thousands in September while the rest of Canada lost 68,000 jobs. While high oil prices have helped the province, they aren’t responsible for the job growth. Capital investment in multiple industries has been spiking.On the political front, Alberta has seen more love from Ottawa in the last year than it’s seen in a generation. It seems that hardly a week goes by without a federal minister announcing a new grant for housing, military, or transportation infrastructure in Alberta. We have also seen more visits from Prime Minister Carney in a scant few months than we saw from his predecessor in years. Not everybody will see the increased presence of Liberals in the province as a plus, of course, but the sudden turning of the tide with tax dollars is welcome..On the pipeline front, after a decade of being blocked, the notion of a new pipeline to the West Coast has suddenly been declared a project in the national interest. I don’t see a nationalized pipeline as a win, but it certainly reflects a change in attitude from Ottawa all the same. I also doubt ground will ever be broken for the pipeline, much less that the pipeline will reach tidewater. Some people do believe it will happen, though, and the clock is now ticking for Mr. Carney. Optimists who believe Carney is sincere will be more than disappointed if the project fails. Voting for Option 2 offers encouragement for Carney to follow through.Federal Liberals tend to see tooth extractions as being more appealing than spending time in Alberta. They would much rather dedicate their time to campaigning within the Laurentian region where they are broadly loved and welcomed. The fact that they are dedicating so much attention and time to Alberta is solely due to the pending referendum. It’s undeniable that the process has garnered leverage for Alberta within the federation. A strong showing for Option 2 in the referendum ensures that leverage continues to be in play.The path to full provincial independence is a convoluted one, and the October 19 referendum is only a step in a direction. It isn’t a commitment. If the Option 2 side wins, those who chose it have plenty of time before the next vote to determine if they want to choose independence or not. It would put Ottawa on notice that something systemic must change if it wants to avoid a growing independence movement. Not more announcements. Not more policies. Real, lasting change to the system.Choosing Option 2 on the ballot is the right choice whether a person is a full independence supporter or is nearing the end of their rope with the federal government.Choosing Option 1 sends a message to Ottawa as well. It tells the establishment that the status quo is acceptable and that Alberta is ready for another round of abuse within the federation.Alberta has a generational opportunity to change the status of the province in the federation this October. Albertans can only realize that opportunity by choosing Option 2 on Question 10.
