Premier Danielle Smith has been maintaining something of a delicate balancing act between satisfying the independence element within her party base and most Albertans at large who still lean toward the federalist side. Of late, though, the premier has decided to fall solidly onto one side of the debate, and it may lead to dire consequences for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the future.It can be understood why the premier is maintaining a stance on the federalist side of the debate. She has never claimed to be a supporter of Alberta independence, and she didn’t campaign on a platform supporting it. She certainly has the right to express where she stands on the issue. But when she went into a tirade with hyperbolic economic assumptions claiming that the transitional cost of independence would be over $400 billion, she sounded much like former Premier Jason Kenney has lately, since he donned the cloak of “Captain Canada.” Premier Smith would be well served to remember why the word “former” is used when speaking of Kenney’s premiership.While some of the leading figures in the independence movement have always had a chip on their shoulders with the premier, they were tempered by the majority of independence supporters who accepted her federalism, as long as they could get a referendum out of the deal. With the courts blocking the ability for citizens to initiate a referendum on sovereignty, independence supporters became more upset with the status quo. Many still grudgingly accepted the watered-down, word salad of a referendum question the premier added to the ballot for this fall. They took the premier at her word that this was the only option available for people to express themselves in a referendum right now. With the premier now in an open campaign against option number two on the independence question, independence supporters will be sorely tempted to give up on the referendum and direct their resources and energy into unseating the premier.This is not a threat to be dismissed. No Conservative premier has managed to remain in power beyond a single term since Ralph Klein, and it has tended to be party members who take them down, not the electorate. In needlessly provoking a segment of the UCP member base who number in the thousands, Smith could start a chain of events leading to her political career meeting the same ignominious ending her predecessors enjoyed..Rather than going to war against independence supporters, the premier should be focusing on accomplishments that may undercut the strength of the independence campaign.Where has the plan for a provincial pension plan gone?When will Alberta formally announce an end to the RCMP contract and plan for a full provincial police force?How about bringing home the collection of provincial taxes and keeping energy royalties within provincial institutions rather than using Eastern-based banks?With three years in office, Premier Smith has managed to talk a good game when it comes to provincial sovereignty initiatives, but her delivery has been terrible. If the intention is to make Alberta more sovereign within Canada, it would be refreshing to see a tangible indication of it.Smith’s ongoing negotiations with Mark Carney appear to have involved a lot of capitulations from Alberta on carbon taxes and questionable carbon tax initiatives, with no concrete commitments from the federal government to approve projects. She has set multiple deadlines with the prime minister since he was elected, only to do nothing when the deadlines are ignored. Remember the Grey Cup deadline? .The premier is appearing weak in Ottawa and harsh against Alberta regionalists. This is creating an ugly formula which will lead to a populist uprising against her, and no amount of threats that it will lead to another term of the NDP will cool that.A referendum is on the horizon that presents independence supporters with half a loaf to be satisfied with. Premier Smith should stay clear of the campaign and let citizens deal with it from here on in. She made her federalist inclination clear and doesn’t need to keep pressing it. It’s changing the sentiment among independence supporters from frustration with the premier to rage. The 7,000 people who sat through blizzards and endured abuse from federalists last winter to get referendum signatures are dedicated, hard-working Albertans. The premier really doesn’t want to have them dedicate their hard work toward removing her from power.Nobody expects the premier to adopt a pro-independence stance, but she doesn’t need to go on a campaign against independence supporters either. Legacy media and Eastern elites will label her a “separatist” either way. What Smith must do is show some victories for Alberta within the federation. And she is running out of time for it.
