The open mic session with Premier Danielle Smith and her cabinet on Friday night at the UCP AGM was initially standard stuff. People used the opportunity to express concerns or personal beefs rather than asking pointed questions. Cabinet members then offered extended answers, while some in the audience struggled to maintain interest while waiting for the hospitality suites to open up.From my vantage point, I could see Alberta Prosperity Project representative Jeffery Rath’s unmistakable silhouette in the lineup for the microphone and knew things were going to get interesting. It appeared that the time for open questions may run out before Rath could get his question in, but Smith extended the segment long enough for him to reach the front of the line. Rath has always been a bombastic straight shooter and he didn’t disappoint.He thundered, “After that so-called MOU was signed yesterday, the ink wasn't dry on the paper, and Mark Carney went out and gleefully announced a 600% increase in the industrial carbon tax in Alberta. How many of us favour a free and independent Alberta?”Rath’s question and tone didn’t surprise me a bit. What caught me off guard was seeing at least 80% of the thousands of delegates offering him a standing ovation and thunderous, extended applause. It has never been a secret that independence sentiment is high among UCP members, but this was well beyond what I had imagined and I like to think of myself as being in tune with the independence movement.The audience response caught Smith off guard. She was uncharacteristically shaken, and when stating in her response that she supported an independent Alberta within a united Canada, she was roundly booed. She asked people to be patient and to take a leap of faith. The response was tepid at best among the members.Rath’s question and the reaction of the members exposed what could be an existential, internal crisis within the UCP. A large and growing number of members are impatient to the point of demanding nothing less than an endorsement from party leadership for provincial independence. The Smith government’s announcement of a memorandum of understanding signed with the Carney government for a bitumen pipeline didn’t comfort members who are now too cynical to trust anything coming from Ottawa. If anything, it inflamed them as they felt the agreement was leading Smith down the garden path and wasting time that could be dedicated to provincial independence measures.Smith is in a tough spot. While a majority of her party members may support pursuing an independent Alberta, most of the province isn’t there. If the UCP overtly took on an independence mandate, it would be political suicide. If the UCP can’t pacify the growing independence movement within its ranks, there is a very real risk that the party could split and a new independence party could emerge on the political horizon.An independence party couldn’t win a majority in an election in Alberta right now. In fact, an independence party likely couldn’t win a single seat in the province. A well managed independence party could grab 10-15% of the vote in urban constituencies though and almost every one of those votes would come from former UCP voters. That would spell a disaster for the UCP and a boon for the NDP as Naheed Nenshi would win a majority government in such a scenario.Smith must toss a bone to the independence movement without tanking her party's support in the process.The best tool she has to that end is to facilitate an independence referendum in Alberta. She must not endorse independence or campaign for one side or another. The premier must remain as impartial as possible during a referendum campaign while reiterating that the decision on independence must always ultimately be in the hands of Albertans.Independence supporters are upset and impatient. They have been organizing for years and feel they are spinning their wheels now while their application to petition for an independence referendum is mired in Alberta’s courts. That has inspired them to turn their efforts and activism toward the UCP and created the environment leading to the audience response to Rath on Friday. They must have an outlet for their aspirations and energy or it will continue to spill over into UCP functions and distract from the myriad other policy initiatives the Smith government is juggling. Once independence supporters are formally petitioning for a referendum and then campaigning within one, they will get off the government’s case.Not only will an independence referendum get the independence activists off of Smith’s back, but it will give her leverage as she continues to push for a bitumen pipeline to the West Coast, among other concessions from Ottawa. The Smith government has been long in making demands of the federal government but short in the “or else” department. A looming independence referendum offers a very tangible consequence for continued intransigence from Ottawa on Albertan grievances. Having the province discussing and moving toward a vote considering nationhood will make the nation understand just how serious Albertan citizens are and how impatient they have become.In talking to people at the AGM, it’s clear that Smith is wildly popular among the members. There is no discussion of trying to remove her from the leadership. The discontent is with the direction of the government and a sense of impatience. They don’t want to attend more public meetings and they don’t want to hear any more promises. They want tangible actions addressing provincial autonomy and protection from federal government incursions. The pressure building within the UCP will lead to an explosion soon. A referendum will be the ideal tool to release that buildup and satisfy members. Time is running out.
