Federal Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino's attempt to order the RCMP to enforce the federal gun grab in Alberta would have presented an incredible political gift to UCP leadership contender Danielle Smith had it come but a few weeks ago. Most of the ballots for the leadership race have already been put into the post by now and there aren't likely many undecided members at this point. It may inspire some procrastinating members to make their mark and get their ballot into the party before the deadline though. While every candidate has made standing up to Ottawa a large plank in their platforms, Smith has taken the most militant approach with her proposed Sovereignty Act. An active jurisdictional scrap with Ottawa during the leadership race would likely have propelled Smith to a comfortable first ballot win. .Whoever Alberta's new premier will be on October 6, their first order of business will be a full blown battle with Ottawa over the enforcement of the Liberal's arbitrary ban of "assault-style" firearms in Canada. Citizens will not tolerate a weak approach with this fight. Jason Kenney's all talk, little action when it came to dealing with Ottawa contributed greatly to his ouster as the party's leader. Citizens had taken part in the Fair Deal panel hearings in 2019 in good faith and they expected some action on the panel's conclusions. When Kenney continued to drag his feet on items such as forming a provincial police force or a provincial pension plan, members tossed him out on his hindquarters. The next leader will surely have learned from that. .There is nothing like a good battle with Ottawa to help solidify popular support around the provincial government and this one is shaping up to be a big one. Both the Trudeau Liberals and the UCP have drawn their lines in the sand and its hard to see either side backing down easily. .If the RCMP listens to the federal government and begins trying to enforce Trudeau's firearm ban in Alberta, the provincial government will be under heavy pressure to end the contract with the RCMP and expedite the formation of a provincial police force. Rural Albertans who are already dealing with crime problems will not be amused if their local police force is wasting resources on disarming law abiding citizens when they could be spending time trying to prevent and solve actual crimes. They will not be cooperative and any rural MLA not supporting the formation of a provincial force will be committing political suicide. Trust was never recovered after the High River gun grab carried out by the RCMP in 2013 and more recent reports of politicization of the force under Brenda Lucki aren't helping matters. .If the RCMP listens to Alberta Justice Minister Tyler Shandro and refuses to enforce the federal order though, the federal gun ban will be essentially dead in the water. How could the government enforce the ban in other provinces if they won't do it in Alberta? The Liberals won't allow themselves to lose face like that. They will replace every senior RCMP officer in Alberta if they have to. .The Liberal government's efforts to compel a federal force to intrude upon provincial jurisdiction will cause a surge in support for initiatives such as Smith's Sovereignty Act and in support for outright independence. .Albertan citizens will be incensed and the war of court challenges and words will go on for months. .A perfect political storm leading up to next spring's provincial election. .Rachel Notley will look weak. Her provincial NDP are beholden to Jagmeet Singh's federal party due to their own party constitution. Singh is beholden to Trudeau with their federal agreement in government. The NDP support central government control and tend to oppose protection of property and firearm rights. The UCP will relentlessly remind voters of all of these things and to great effect in the next election. .While there is nothing to celebrate in the Trudeau government's intention to seize the property of law-abiding firearm owners, there is a silver lining to that cloud. The federal government has provoked a battle which will ensure Alberta doesn't put Rachel Notley's NDP back into power in the next election. .The federal/provincial war will continue for years. In the shorter term though, Alberta will remain under a conservative government.
