MORGAN: The BC election is a warning for Albertans

David Eby’s choice to call an early election in BC will go down in history as one of the worst strategic decisions since the introduction of New Coke in 1985. To make the defeat even more punishing, while the NDP managed to lose 20 seats, Eby’s seat wasn’t one of them. He resigned as the leader of the party, but his humiliation will be dragged out as he sits in the legislature in an opposition role. He likely won’t stay for too long, though perhaps he might since he needs the money. He did need to use subsidized daycare costing ten dollars per day for his children, after all.Eby’s choice to call a snap election while the Conservatives were in disarray was a crass, opportunistic decision. It is heartening to see that BC voters punished him thoroughly for making such a cynical political move. It serves as a warning to other politicians who may be considering such a move in the near future. Yes, I am speaking of Mark Carney.The other big loser in the election was OneBC under Dallas Brodie. The breakout, right-wing party didn’t come close to winning any seats, and Brodie went from a 51.6% win in Vancouver-Quilchena in 2024 to an embarrassing 4% showing last weekend. Voters were angry with Eby and his NDP, but it didn’t translate into love for Brodie’s fledgling party. OneBC will have a tough time trying to maintain relevance while the Conservatives enjoy a solid majority mandate.With a general election facing Alberta in a year, independence activists considering taking a partisan approach to secession may want to examine the fate of OneBC before considering expending resources and energy on an alternative party. Voters proved themselves to be inclined to vote strategically to keep the NDP out rather than consider supporting a new party. A similar dynamic will likely emerge in Alberta as fear of a term with Nenshi in power could consolidate support under the UCP..A month before the vote, the BC Conservatives appeared to be self-destructing. Under Kerry-Lynne Findlay, more than a dozen MLAs had left or been removed amid infighting. How they managed to unite in short order with an interim leader to contest an election should be studied. They won by prioritizing shared ground: economic growth, resource development, tax relief, and opposition to progressive overreach. Alberta’s recent referendum result, with roughly 75% voting against even starting a binding independence process, does not erase the underlying grievances that produced the 25% “yes” on the question, nor the strong sovereigntist sentiment inside the UCP base. Equalization, federal energy interference, Ottawa’s spending priorities, and the structural transfer of wealth from the West remain real. Full independence remains a coherent response to a federation that systematically disadvantages resource provinces. But the BC result offers practical lessons if the goal is either greater sovereignty or eventual independence rather than permanent opposition. Compromise will be required between independence supporters and Premier Smith if a functional party is to contest next year’s election.Alberta independence has real support among those who have watched Ottawa block pipelines, impose carbon frameworks, and redistribute wealth, but converting that into majorities requires messengers who can speak to families worried about housing, taxes, and healthcare without alienating those not yet ready for independence. The BC win also creates a more favourable provincial partner for resource exports; a Conservative BC government is less likely to treat Alberta oil and gas as an existential threat. That practical alignment matters even for those who ultimately want full independence, because tidewater access and cross-border economic ties do not disappear overnight..The deeper structural problem remains. Alberta’s wealth continues to subsidize other provinces under a federal system whose incentives favour central Canadian priorities. BC’s voters just rejected one version of that progressive consensus at the provincial level. Alberta conservatives, whether focused on stronger autonomy within Confederation or eventual independence, should study how the BC Conservatives recovered from near-collapse by concentrating on competence, resource development, and unity around core economic priorities. Division hands power to the left. Focused delivery of tangible gains keeps the argument for greater Alberta control alive and credible.Independence for Alberta is inevitable under Canada’s broken system. That said, it’s clear that neither the independence movement nor the electorate of Alberta is ready for the full pursuit of independence. Patience and pragmatism must be the order of the day. If uncompromising independence activists turn 2027 into a pitched internal battle between factions in the UCP, the NDP could sweep in and put all independence dreams to bed for at least an electoral cycle.The referendum is over, but Alberta is still in a pivotal year. BC offers some lessons we would be well served to heed.

MORGAN: The BC election is a warning for Albertans

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