Canadian unity is always a consideration in federal elections. As a federation, Canada has independence movements in both Quebec and Alberta. Support for those movements has had ebbs and flows but they can’t be dismissed. In Quebec, the province came within 1% of a positive vote for leaving Canada in a 1995 referendum. In Alberta, support for independence was high enough for Gordon Kesler to win a legislative seat with an independence platform in response to Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program in the 1980s.Independence support in Alberta has been on a slow boil and increasing. Polls in 2023 indicated a quarter of Albertans supported full independence from Canada. The polls were dismissed as representing a small minority of Albertans. Hmmm. Having one in four people wanting to have a province leave a country is a rather large number of seriously dissatisfied people. Populist movements have erupted quickly from much smaller bases of support. .The movement for independence in Alberta could quickly turn from smouldering discontent, into an outright prairie fire if the federal election turns into a regional slugfest and a Liberal win. Albertans have never had a comfortable relationship with the federal Liberals.In the early 1900s, Western farmers were hit with protectionist tariffs on farm implements modelled to prop up Eastern manufacturing industries. The rail monopoly forced farmers to pay the freight for supplies coming in, and for their crops going out. They got hit from both sides to subsidize Eastern industries..While agriculture was a growing industry in the West, Liberal policies kept producers at a disadvantage, compared to American farmers. The famous “Milch Cow” cartoon depicted Western farmers feverishly working to feed a giant cow astride a map of Canada while Eastern elites enjoyed the milk underneath. The cartoon is 110 years old yet the issues and attitudes across Canada remain the same today.Once oil and gas were discovered in Alberta, the West worked hard to diversify its economy and develop this new resource. Alas, the Eastern powers that be had no interest in Western oil, if they could continue to ship it in from foreign sources.That all changed when price shocks for oil hit the world in the 1970s. Suddenly, Alberta’s oil became Canada’s oil and Pierre Trudeau performed a vile act of regional ravishing with his National Energy Program. Alberta’s economy was decimated, and even Brian Mulroney didn’t repeal the program until the price of oil collapsed. .Then, Alberta was left drained, used and dejected, yet still chided for being ungrateful if they dared to question the value of the federation.The Chretien administration was little better and drew no more love from Alberta, as Chretien candidly admitted he didn’t care for dealing with Albertans while policies continued to drain the West to feed the East.Then we had the Trudeau government, the most left-leaning, anti-oil administration in the history of Canada. Westerners were reviled while efforts to construct pipelines were shunted.New oilsands developments were cancelled, and money was poured into Eastern battery plants and even an operation raising crickets for food. The battery plants and the cricket farms are failing, but the money keeps pouring out to Eastern ventures. Westerners are derided as selfish rednecks if they complain. .While regional ire has been growing for decades, it never hit the tipping point of becoming an effective independence movement. Polls showed independence support rising, but still not quite nearing 50% in Alberta. This was because most Albertans accepted there would be a break in the cycle.Every ten years or so, Eastern Canada would offer the West a breather and let another party into government for a time. Even Laurentians realize they must flush the pipes now and then, lest the corruption and entitlement become too much within the House of Commons.Westerners would grumble but were willing to wait until a reset occurred with a new government.With the Trudeau government managing to reach support levels as low as 17%, Westerners breathed a sigh of relief. While Trudeau’s reign was marked with corruption, ineptitude, scandals, and foreign interference, it was finally coming to an end. But alas, it appears nothing will change. All the Liberals had to do was change the face at the front of their government and Eastern Canada fell back in love with them. The cabinet members remain, and the new leader is as ideologically opposed to Western industries as his predecessor.The new leader stole the platform of the Conservatives and appears poised to win a majority government from the East.The cycle has broken and Westerners will be facing a new reality. No matter how badly the Liberals may govern, Eastern Canada will keep them in power. The hope for a reprieve through a term or two of new governance is evaporating. The West could be facing another decade of abusive government dominated by the Laurentian elite.Hope for change within Canada will be lost, and Westerners will have some soul searching to do. .Should they resign themselves to being perpetually ruled by a distant government that only serves the East, or is it time to break free of the federation that serves Westerners so poorly?Eastern voters may not realize it today, but their self-serving voting patterns could lead to the end of Canada as they know it.Perhaps that’s not such a bad thing.All things must come to an end eventually.
