Canada is lurching toward a trade war with the United States unlike any it has endured before. While President-elect Donald Trump threatens tariffs as high as 25% on Canadian goods, Prime Minister Trudeau appears determined to inflame the situation by implying American bigotry is the reason Kamala Harris lost the presidential election. Trudeau has treated the situation seriously enough to travel to meet Trump in person on short notice, but the meeting doesn’t appear to have been productive.Trump joked about making Canada the 51st state when meeting Trudeau and he has continued to goad and troll Trudeau on social media by referring to him as a governor. While the trolling is seen as humorous to some, what it represents is anything but funny. As a trade war looms, Trump holds almost all the cards and has no respect for Trudeau whatsoever. In negotiations of any kind, if coming from a position as weak as Canada’s with a leader as weak as Trudeau, you are in a terrible position.If Trump imposes the threatened tariffs on Canadian goods, it will harm both nations. Let’s not kid ourselves though, Canada will be harmed much more in such a situation than the USA will. We must do whatever possible to fend off this possible scenario.Unfortunately, in his desperation to maintain power, Justin Trudeau may be welcoming a trade war. His continued efforts to antagonize Trump may be by design rather than Trudeau’s usual simplistic foolishness. Nothing has managed to pull Trudeau from the dumps in the polls from massive spending increases to gimmicky, temporary tax cuts. The Trudeau government may see a trade war as a way turn the page. Nothing unites citizens behind a leader more effectively than a battle with a foreign power. They could shift more toward villainizing Trump while painting Trudeau as a hero standing up to the evil orange man. The tactic will surely fail, but the Trudeau government has little left to lose now.Trudeau already implied he would retaliate if Trump imposed tariffs as threatened. This is where Western Canadians had better sit up, take notice, and get worried.Tariffs on incoming goods from the USA would put some pressure on American exporters, but it would be relatively minor. If Justin Trudeau wanted to quickly hit Americans in the pocketbook, he would tear a page from his father’s playbook and impose tariffs on outgoing Canadian oil. He could add natural gas and agricultural products to the mix to have a quick impact on the pocketbooks of Southern customers.If Trudeau pulled such a stunt, it would enrage Western Canadians of course but does he care? The Liberals have no seats in Saskatchewan and the two seats they have in Alberta are almost certain to be lost in the next election, anyway. Nothing to lose here. Battling with Western premiers to curry favour among Eastern Canadians has been a tried-and-true tactic for Liberal prime ministers for generations.Premier Danielle Smith has been working proactively with the United States for months in meeting with state governors and shoring up the Alberta office in Washington. Smith’s efforts could even lead to a carve out for oil and gas products if tariffs were to be imposed. If tariffs were to be imposed on automotive products in Central Canada while Alberta’s prime exports remained unscathed, it would paint a target on Western industries Trudeau would be hard pressed to ignore. National unity would be shattered.Canada is in economic tough shape. The GDP per capita is sagging along with the Canadian dollar. Inflation continues to be an issue and unemployment is rising. If Canada enters a trade war with the United States, it would be a catastrophe.The best way to head off a conflict with the incoming American president would be to replace the current prime minister of Canada. Trump takes things personally and he is never going to drop his grudge with Trudeau.The only person who thinks Trudeau should remain prime minister is Trudeau himself. Unfortunately, in the Canadian system that’s all the support he needs to remain clinging to power. Trudeau is a narcissist willing to gamble Canada’s well being for the sake of staying in office. A quote often misattributed to Sun Tzu applies here: “An evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes.”I won’t go as far as labeling Trudeau evil, but he is short-sighted and self-serving enough to bring Canada to its knees as he desperately tries to maintain power. As Christmas approaches, the best gift Canada could hope for is that Trudeau takes a walk in the snow as his father did.We will have to email that request to Santa however as the postal workers remain on strike.
