MORGAN: Where to next for the Alberta independence movement?

After what felt like an interminable campaign lasting five months, a quarter of Albertans rejected the status quo by selecting Option 2 on Question 10 in a referendum. Some chose with the intention of sending a message or warning to Ottawa. Others (like me) wanted to truly begin down the path to full provincial independence.While I had hoped for better results, I am not disappointed. The vote incontrovertibly establishes that a solid independence movement exists in Alberta. It isn’t a reactionary snapshot in a poll after an election or event that inflamed the province. It was a democratic determination made by Albertans who had months to think about the question. And over time, support for independence will continue to grow as more Albertans realize that trying to achieve lasting changes within Canada’s broken federation is an exercise in futility.The vote was not rigged, and we must accept these results. Elections Alberta conducted itself terribly, from its refusal to acknowledge that Thomas Lukaszuk was running a campaign when he was clearly doing so to its refusal to allow scrutineers from third-party advertisers in the campaign. Those are issues of poor administration rather than vote rigging, though. Trying to deny the outcome of the vote without evidence of actual malfeasance only makes our side look embittered and unrealistic, especially when the spread was that wide. Even if there had not been mail-in ballots, even if Lukaszuk had disclosed his funding early, and even if there had been more scrutineers, the results wouldn’t have been much different.The campaign itself was anything but a waste. Tens of thousands of Albertans volunteered for and financially supported third-party advertising groups, and a foundation of support for independence was created, though it’s still disparately focused. Networks and friendships were created as thousands of Albertans got some real-life campaign training, which will serve the province well down the road when a binding referendum is held. We will hold a binding referendum one day, and we must prepare for it. But we also must accept that the time for it isn’t here yet..Now is a time for some much-needed rest and then some introspection. We must look at our own movement with a critical eye and identify the factors that kept us from reaching a majority of the province. We did many things right, but we did other things wrong.A lesson we can draw from Quebec is that we must put more time into creating a well-defined plan for independence and how it will all work. Keith Wilson’s Alberta Transition Council did a fantastic job in that regard, but it still needs more fleshing out, and it needs to be brought to more Albertans. Time just wasn’t on their side.To do that, Alberta needs a more centralized independence organization. Having several voices speaking for the movement has advantages and disadvantages. Mixed messaging during the campaign caused some confusion and mistrust among voters. It’s hard to sell the concept of an independent Alberta when there are several visions being pitched on how it will look. There will always be several groups promoting the concept, and that’s healthy in a democracy. But one must somehow stand out and become the more definitive voice for the movement. Independence supporters must start thinking about which group that will be and how they can support it.On the government front, pressure must be applied to the provincial government to get on with policies that reduce Alberta’s dependence on the federation and loosen its ties to it. The lack of an Alberta pension plan hurt the independence campaign badly, as federalists falsely told seniors they would lose their pension if Alberta became independent. With a provincial plan, we won’t even need to debate it any longer..Also, the premier can’t be allowed to drag her feet on any of the questions that garnered positive support in the referendum. She was given a mandate by voters, and she can’t dither with it. Otherwise, holding the referendum on the first nine questions was indeed a colossal waste of time and money. The constitutional questions will smack against a brick wall in Ottawa, of course, but that only helps the independence movement as it demonstrates the futility of pursuing constitutional reforms in Canada. The policy questions can and should be implemented in legislation right away, though. There is no reason to keep tapping the brakes on the immigration reforms.As far as going after the leadership of the UCP, I suggest people take a breath and think long and hard. I understand frustration with Smith, but to tear her out of office in hopes of putting an overtly secessionist leader into power would be a political disaster. Spending the next few months in an effort to remove her, even if it fails, will offer a gift to Naheed Nenshi, who could end up in the premier’s seat.I know people tire of settling for what can be seen as the lesser of two evils, but it’s still better than having to live with the greater of the evils. There will be time to address the leadership of the UCP after the next general election if need be. We must think strategically and always look at the long game. Because it is one.Take a break and congratulate yourselves. Alberta made history this week, and the independence movement is just getting established. It is far from done. We are just warming up.

MORGAN: Where to next for the Alberta independence movement?

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