Let’s dive into the rumour mill world..Gossip is flying over the possibility of an election being called this fall..One of the prime groups perpetuating the rumour is the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). Spreading rumours of a pending election is always a good fundraising tool for a party. Donors can be tight during the doldrums between elections but they open their wallets when they feel the opportunity to change the government may be coming around..There are reasons why the latest rumours are taking a bit of root though..Justin Trudeau has been popping up unexpectedly in random locations across the country with no clear reasons for doing so..He has always been the king of photo ops but his staged appearances lately have had the strong scent of campaigning within them..Last week his staged love-in at the Calgary Stampede made news across the country..Days later, Trudeau was in a Quebec park reading stories to children. I'm sure they helped him with the bigger words..The next day, he unexpectedly appeared for a church service in Ontario. He has never really been known as a churchgoing soul..Yesterday, he was picking cherries in an orchard in BC and attended another children’s day camp..That's a lot of careful scheduling and a lot of miles to cover for a generalized tour..Brian Lilley noted in a Sun piece whenever Trudeau changes his appearance, he is heading for another election. Trudeau’s facial hair disappeared last year as he began a pre-election, summer tour across Canada..Trudeau’s rather odd new haircut is making news though not in a great way..Does this all mean an election is coming?.Maybe..This is one of the most maddening frustrations with Canada’s system. The instability of parliament. Even when a government holds a majority, they can and often do call snap elections for their own benefit. Contenders for the throne are always forced to be on guard for a sudden election..Ralph Klein used to love playing coy with election dates. His government would leak rumours of a snap election, sit back, watch opposition parties scrambling to get their campaigns together, and then wouldn’t call one or at least would wait another couple months..I doubt the Liberals have any solid plan to force an election this fall, but they are making sure they're ready to roll if the opportunity presents itself..Trudeau had two minority governments in a row. The only way he could extend his tenure beyond the next election is to win a majority. If he wins another minority, he's finished..While Trudeau cut a deal with the NDP to stay in power for the next three years, we know the deal isn’t worth the figurative paper it was written on. If the Liberals smell an advantage, they will not hesitate to throw Jagmeet Singh to the wind and hit the polls..Trudeau has been wearing out his welcome with Canadians for some time now. Not just citizens in general, but even within Liberal circles. Ambitious MPs within his party want their kick at the can and party supporters are not thrilled with the prospect of endless minority governments. If Trudeau tries to hold on for three more years, he may find the rug pulled out from his feet by his own party..The election of a new leader of the CPC may present Trudeau with an opportunity to make one last grab for a majority government. Governments have often called snap elections shortly after their challengers select new leaders. It's tough to come out of a leadership race and go straight into a general election. Donors and volunteers are tired and the new leader won’t have established themselves.It would be a long shot, but he may see it as his only shot..Trudeau is a self-centred narcissist. It is very conceivable he could put his entire party in peril as he makes a last gasp grab for a majority government in a snap election..If such an election is called, we can rest assured it will among the most divisive and vitriolic we have ever seen. Trudeau thrives on division both regionally and ideologically. This time, his tactics will be spurred on by his personal desperation. He will go scorched earth in hopes of gaining a majority..Justin Trudeau has no solid legacy to leave behind. He's caught in his father’s shadow and wants to achieve something lasting during his tenure. He can’t do that with a minority government. His pride is more important to him than the needs of Canadians..Will there be a fall election?.I will lay my odds of an election call at being 4-1 one right now. More unlikely than likely..The behaviour of Trudeau lately indicates he is seriously considering it though..The only thing we can count on in Canada these days is political instability.
