Matthew Mueller is a Calgary-based writer with a history of being immersed in news from a young age. He is passionate about Alberta and Canada relations.In the 1990s, Western Canadians didn’t just want a seat at the table; they wanted to flip the table entirely.Rising from the bitter sting of the National Energy Program, the Reform Party gave a voice to a region tired of being ignored.The West wanted in.Fast forward to 2025.The West wants out.Former Leader of the Official Opposition, Preston Manning, issued a stark warning before last spring’s federal election that a Liberal victory would risk Western independence. He was quickly rebuked by both Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Carney even went as far as calling Manning’s warning "dramatic" — but with Alberta's independence petition claiming its signatures and growing in frustration because of legal challenges, Manning's warning looks less alarmist now.A year after the election that won him a minority government, Carney has secured a majority through floor crossings, pouring more fuel on a fire in Western Canada that shows few signs of burning out.On April 13, three byelection wins brought the Liberal seat count to 174, making Carney the first Canadian prime minister to achieve a majority through floor-crossings (four Conservatives and one NDP)..University of Lethbridge political science professor Dr. Yale Belanger told The News Forum’s Hal Roberts on April 16 that Carney may be seen as “manufacturing a majority at this point in time, and that may prompt people to ask the question as to whether or not this is the government that can truly represent them.”He’s right.Meanwhile, Alberta is in the middle of a deep wave of Western alienation that has many pushing for full independence — just as Manning predicted.In July, pro-independence organization Stay Free Alberta filed a citizen initiative application asking: "Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?"By March 30, organizers claimed to have gathered the required 178,000 signatures, targeting an October 2026 referendum.Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been careful about her own positioning.She has regularly said that she supports “a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.”She has been equally clear that the frustration driving the independence movement was legitimate..Smith has issued several demands to Carney — including repealing Bill C-69, lifting the tanker ban under Bill C-48, eliminating the oil and gas emissions cap, and more. She also launched an "Alberta Next" panel, with several policy items going to Albertans in a 2026 referendum.Carney has made efforts to reach Albertans through a memorandum of understanding with the Smith government on energy collaboration, which includes a path for a new bitumen pipeline to the BC coast.However, the optimism of that November signing has met the reality of missed deadlines, as Smith and Carney failed to reach a final deal by April 1 on the industrial carbon pricing and methane targets required to unlock the project.The Premier has rightfully balked at Carney’s demand to hike Alberta’s industrial carbon price to $130 a tonne — a move that would hand a competitive jackpot to our neighbours in the US who face no such burden.As a result, the promised pipeline remains a mirage, dangled by a Prime Minister who seems more interested in gouging Alberta’s industry than building national infrastructure.Words and memorandums are one thing; the deep-seated reality of Western alienation is another.In a federation where Alberta feels like an occupied territory rather than a partner, it will take more than a signed paper to prove Ottawa has stopped governing against our will.If Carney won't listen to the ballot box, he may soon have to listen to a province walking out the door.Matthew Mueller is a Calgary-based writer with a history of being immersed in news from a young age. He is passionate about Alberta and Canada relations.
