MUNRO: The great Saskatchewan exodus — why Canadians keep leaving for other provinces

Grady Munro is a senior policy analyst with the Fraser Institute.The City of Regina recently launched an ad campaign urging Canadians in other provinces to “break up with your city” and move to Regina. The campaign targets four Canadian cities (Halifax, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver) and attempts to highlight Regina’s advantages on issues such as affordability, availability of housing, and overall quality of life. This campaign is a good illustration of a larger dynamic in Canada, whereby cities and provinces across the country compete with each other to be the most attractive place to live and work. And while it remains to be seen whether Regina’s recent campaign will move the needle for the city, the data shows that Saskatchewan as a whole has long struggled to attract Canadians from other provinces. Specifically, according to our recent study, from 1995/96 to 2024/25 (the latest year of available data), Saskatchewan lost 123,603 residents (on net) — meaning more residents left Saskatchewan for another province than moved to Saskatchewan — or nearly 10% of Saskatchewan’s population (in 2025). More than half (73,735) of those who left were younger working-age individuals aged 18 to 44 years old. As for where Saskatchewanians are going, the majority (95,949) simply crossed the western border and settled in Alberta, while other provinces, including British Columbia (29,956) and Ontario (6,899), also welcomed a significant number of people (on net) from Saskatchewan. These losses were partially offset by some net gains, mainly from Manitoba (5,906 people) and Quebec (1,709 people). .Interestingly, all four cities Regina is targeting with its ad campaign are located in provinces that Saskatchewan lost residents (on net) to over the past three decades. Over the entire 30-year period, there was only one seven-year stretch (2006/07 to 2012/13) when Saskatchewan was able to attract more Canadian residents in total than it lost to other provinces. During each of the remaining 23 years, Saskatchewan lost more residents than it attracted from the rest of Canada. People move for a variety of reasons, both economic and personal, so it’s difficult to say why exactly Saskatchewan has been losing people for the majority of three decades. However, some broad factors likely play a role. For example, empirical research shows that people consider factors such as economic opportunity (e.g. the ability to find a well-paying job) and tax rates when deciding when and where to move. For most of the past 30 years, Saskatchewan (and the rest of Canada) has stood at a disadvantage relative to Alberta regarding both economic opportunity and taxes. Given the economic weight of its western neighbour, it’s unsurprising that the majority of Saskatchewanians who leave choose to settle in Alberta.In fact, the only period when Saskatchewan was able to attract Canadian residents (on net) corresponded with tax reforms introduced in the 2006 provincial budget (namely the reduction of provincial taxes on business income and capital), along with other favourable developments (e.g. a shift in investor preferences that saw Saskatchewan overtake Alberta) that promoted greater overall prosperity for Saskatchewanians. Simply put, Saskatchewan has consistently lost residents to other provinces in Canada — Alberta in particular — for more than two decades. To turn this trend around, Saskatchewan will need more than an ad campaign from Regina. Grady Munro is a senior policy analyst with the Fraser Institute.

MUNRO: The great Saskatchewan exodus — why Canadians keep leaving for other provinces

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