Dr. Marco Navarro-Génie is the Vice-President of Research and Policy at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. An expert on radical revolutionary movements and political identity, he is a recipient of the King Charles III Coronation Medal for exemplary public service. He is the author of three books, including the 2023 release Canada’s COVID: The Story of a Pandemic Moral Panic, co-authored with Barry Cooper.Who pays when Ottawa protects one industry at the expense of another?The answer arrived on Canada Day, hidden in a product most Canadians could not name. China imposed a preliminary 73.5% anti-dumping duty on Canadian pea starch, effective July 1. Processors produce pea starch when they fractionate yellow peas into protein, starch, and fibre, turning a Prairie crop into higher-value ingredients. Pea starch sounds obscure. The politics behind it are not.Why pea starch? Start in the autumn of 2024. Ottawa slapped a 100% surtax on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), then a 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum, to shelter Canadian auto and metal jobs clustered along the Ontario-Quebec industrial corridor. At the centre of that policy sits an EV supply chain stretching from Windsor and St. Thomas, Ontario, to Bécancour, Quebec. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated federal and provincial support for thirteen announced EV supply-chain projects across Canada at up to $52.5 billion.Beijing did not retaliate against Ontario and Quebec. It retaliated against Saskatchewan. Within days of Ottawa’s announcement, China opened an anti-dumping case against Canadian canola. By 2025, it had hit canola oil, meal, and seed, along with peas, pork, and seafood. Most of the agricultural products came disproportionately from the Prairies. The seafood duties struck coastal producers as well. China presents the pea starch measure as a trade remedy. In the context of the continuing tariff dispute, Prairie processors can be forgiven for seeing something more familiar: another invoice from a trade war Ottawa began to protect Central Canadian industry..Campaigning in April 2025, Mark Carney called China “the biggest threat from a geopolitical sense.” Nine months later, as prime minister, he stood in Beijing, announced a new strategic partnership, and told reporters, “We take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.” He called the partnership one that “sets us up well for the new world order.”The deal was plain. Canada would admit up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles a year at a 6.1% tariff. In return, Ottawa expected China to ease its canola duties.Ontario Premier Doug Ford, watching the deal reopen his market to Chinese cars, was incensed for his auto workers, and his grievance ran across the country for days. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe welcomed relief for his farmers. Western canola was the collateral when the wall went up, and the hostage Ottawa had to ransom to bring it down.Ontario and Quebec are unused to paying for the nation’s trade wars. The Prairies had swallowed a year of retaliation and raised nothing like the same alarm. The Ontario-Quebec bill became a national event. The Western one arrives every season..Now weigh what Ottawa’s industrial policy protected. EV sales fell through 2025. Carney first suspended the 2026 sales requirement and later announced the repeal of the federal Electric Vehicle Availability Standard. Quebec’s flagship Northvolt plant collapsed before it opened, costing the province a $270 million write-off. The Windsor cell plant did open, though only after Stellantis, the carmaker that founded it, sold out to its Korean partner. The strategy remained expensive even as its promise faded. The Prairies pay a heavy duty to shelter that strategy.The issue is larger than EVs. It is about who benefits from Ottawa’s industrial policy and who pays for it. Any national industrial policy that concentrates its benefits in one region while exposing another to retaliation will breed the same politics. The West grows the exports. Ontario and Quebec keep the factories. Ottawa writes the tariff. Beijing sends the bill to the address with the least say in the decision.That returns us to the arithmetic. A region can absorb one bad tariff. A region can absorb a poor bargain struck in its name. What it cannot do is outvote the arrangement that produces both, when the seats that decide trade policy sit where the factories sit, and the votes that might change it sit where the farms sit.The math held before pea starch. It holds after.Dr. Marco Navarro-Génie is the Vice-President of Research and Policy at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. An expert on radical revolutionary movements and political identity, he is a recipient of the King Charles III Coronation Medal for exemplary public service. He is the author of three books, including the 2023 release Canada’s COVID: The Story of a Pandemic Moral Panic, co-authored with Barry Cooper.
